Canada Kicks Ass
BC Election poll: Liberals are now neck and neck with NDP

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westmanguy @ Fri May 10, 2013 4:44 pm

Quote:
With just four days to go before British Columbians cast their ballots in the provincial election, new data shows that Christy Clark’s Liberals are gaining ground on Adrian Dix’s NDP.

A Forum Poll for the National Post, which surveyed 1,147 B.C. adults, found that 43% of respondents said they will vote for the NDP, while 41% will vote for the Liberals — a gap that doesn’t exceed the poll’s margin of error.

The poll predicts eight per cent of the vote will go to the Green Party, six per cent to the Conservatives and two per cent to other parties.

The new results continue the Liberals’ upward polling momentum from last week, which saw the NDP in the lead with 39% of the votes and the Liberals catching up with 35%.

“Our tracking was the first to catch the shift from the NDP to the B.C. Liberals a week ago, and it appears the process has advanced further,” said Forum Research President Lorne Bozinoff.

“If this trend holds for another week, who knows? Canada could just possibly re-elect yet another incumbent provincial government.


More: http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/05/10 ... tion-poll/

What a turn around! I will admit that I'm not overly enthralled with Christy Clark/BC Liberals (with full disclaimer I am a BC Liberal party member and have volunteered a bit). But I think since the TV debate and Dix's Kinder Morgan flop (pandering to Green votes he won't get), things have really shifted.

Couple that with John Cummins absolutely abysmal BC Conservatives campaign and you have yourself a race. I still give the NDP a slight edge but I think we're talking a popular vote under 5% difference.

Stranger things have happened (i.e. Alberta election with Wildrose flop). Christy could squeeze out a razor thin win (although she has a hell of a tough race in her home riding of Vancouver Point Grey...thank God my fellow socialist UBC peers are all home for the summer and aren't there to bolster the NDP).

The jobs numbers today were good news for the Liberals too. Unemployment in BC fell in April from 7 to 6.4% and we had the 2nd highest growth in the country.

My head is not in the sand about reality, but I think objective observers have to admit the NDP was weak coming out of the gates and let the Liberals define the campaign over the economy (i'm personally shocked the NDP didn't hammer away at health care and education - their relative strengths - in the debate).

The campaign is choosing a lesser of two evils and I think a lot more voters are seriously worried about the NDP. We also have the phenonemon that tons of 2009 BC Liberal voters are "coming home" albeit going out and voting Liberal rather than maybe planning on staying home or going to the BC Conservatives. Its not a ringing endorsement of Clark but more of an underscoring that the electorate is expressing serious doubts over the NDP.

I still am resigned to an NDP win but I feel now that the Liberals can have a strong opposition after the 14th and a standing to build and repair from.

   



westmanguy @ Fri May 10, 2013 4:49 pm

Additionally:

Multiple polls the last few days have shown that we have up to 1/4 of the electorate who are undecided and don't know who they'll park their vote with yet. That's quite a lot of room for variability (you have to remember when you see the 44/41% numbers thats among decided voters and not including the large number of undediced respondents.

   



Gunnair @ Fri May 10, 2013 5:06 pm

John Cummins needs to return to his regularly scheduled cameos on the Walking Dead......which is where the BC Conservatives are right now.

   



2Cdo @ Fri May 10, 2013 5:50 pm

Gunnair wrote:
John Cummins needs to return to his regularly scheduled cameos on the Walking Dead......which is where the BC Conservatives are right now.


BC has a Conservative Party? [huh]

   



Gunnair @ Fri May 10, 2013 6:01 pm

2Cdo wrote:
Gunnair wrote:
John Cummins needs to return to his regularly scheduled cameos on the Walking Dead......which is where the BC Conservatives are right now.


BC has a Conservative Party? [huh]


Yea. Been on my sig for years.

That's about as far as they're going these days.

   



2Cdo @ Fri May 10, 2013 6:18 pm

What are BC Conservatives like?

I'm thinking slightly left of centre with the Liberals further left and the NDP off the chart. :lol:

   



herbie @ Fri May 10, 2013 9:15 pm

They're dundering dinosaurs barely able to form a party led by someone who can't speak in public.
BC Politics Lesson #1... the ONLY lesson
You're either NDP or your for whatever the hell the name of the Party that's not NDP is called this week.
Which has been for the last decade or so the BC Liberals who are not Liberal.

   



andyt @ Fri May 10, 2013 11:50 pm

2Cdo wrote:
What are BC Conservatives like?

I'm thinking slightly left of centre with the Liberals further left and the NDP off the chart. :lol:


No, you're not.

   



2Cdo @ Sat May 11, 2013 9:19 am

andyt wrote:
2Cdo wrote:
What are BC Conservatives like?

I'm thinking slightly left of centre with the Liberals further left and the NDP off the chart. :lol:


No, you're not.


Guess you missed the smiley while pondering for hours to post your brilliant retort. :roll:

   



raydan @ Sat May 11, 2013 9:25 am

2Cdo wrote:
andyt wrote:
2Cdo wrote:
What are BC Conservatives like?

I'm thinking slightly left of centre with the Liberals further left and the NDP off the chart. :lol:


No, you're not.


Guess you missed the smiley while pondering for hours to post your brilliant retort. :roll:

You recently suggested to somebody that he grow thicker skin, 2Cdo. Time to follow your own advice. :lol:

   



2Cdo @ Sat May 11, 2013 9:52 am

raydan wrote:
You recently suggested to somebody that he grow thicker skin, 2Cdo. Time to follow your own advice. :lol:


My skin is fine ray. 8)

   



westmanguy @ Sat May 11, 2013 8:15 pm

How did fellow CKA'ers living in BC vote?

I know theres tons of you one here living in the best place on earth!

Name your riding and vote:

Vancouver-Fraserview: Liberal

   



Gunnair @ Sat May 11, 2013 8:31 pm

westmanguy wrote:
How did fellow CKA'ers living in BC vote?

I know theres tons of you one here living in the best place on earth!

Name your riding and vote:

Vancouver-Fraserview: Liberal


Secret ballot. :wink:

   



westmanguy @ Sat May 11, 2013 8:39 pm

Haha, fair enough. I never keep mine a secret. All my friends know I lean federal Conservative/BC Liberal.

   



herbie @ Sun May 12, 2013 10:14 am

You should move here. Only one poll in this little town, the NDP's been whooped all but once. This time there's not a single Liberal sign on private property. Not a one.
All NDP and one Green sign.

   



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