I have 10,000 USD in a GIC that I have been thinking about exchanging to Canadian dollars. When the CAD was below $.80 for awhile I was going to do it, I missed the day it was as low as 0.76. I hesitated and the dollar rose to over 0.80. I have been waiting in hopes it might dip lower again, but now I'm thinking it might not and it might start rising again soon.

So the question is, should I exchange the money now at 0.818 or do people think it might go lower again?

I have to break by 1 year GIC term, and pay a $200 penalty or something, but its well worth it for the value gained in the currency exchange. Most of that USD was put there when the dollar was at par.

I was watching some BNN today and some people were saying that Oil is going to start rising again in the new year pretty fast and that should make the Canadian dollar rise with it.

I think oil is going to rise too. I just don't know when. It could hit $20 before it hits $80.

The fair value of the loonie is about 80 cents. I was shorting the loonie a year ago when it was above par. I'm not short it now but I do not see it as a compelling value at this time.

If the financial crisis continues, the Canadian dollar is going lower. If the financial crisis has ended, it is going higher.

It's a crap-shoot. Kinda like when I hesitated to buy CAD a few years back when it was at .62USD. I coulda made a nice chunk of change in just 3 years.

Oil will find an excuse to rise again in the summer, even if the economy is in the dumper. There are too many political variables here in the states to say what might happen. If the auto industry gets bailed out without having to downsize, the economy might rebound in the US and the USD get stronger, but if they are required to lay people off and downsize, it might send another shockwave through the country.

I know this isn't much help, but we haven't much clue down here either.

Well i'm glad I waited, the dollar droped below 0.80 again so I exchanged my USD today.

I then decided to open one of those new Tax Free Savings Accounts (TFSA) with my bank, TD. But now i'm kind of pissed off, because I took a look at ING's website after the fact and found out there rate is half a percent higher!

TD TFSA is 2.5%
ING TFSA is 3.0%

Both are CDIC insured, so what the fuck? I am thinking now I should call TD back and cancel the creation of that account and instead open one with ING. IS there any reason I shouldn't? Any reason not to use ING?

It's Dutch?

the origins are dutch but they operate all over the world, I think they are the largest bank in the world?

ING Direct in Canada you do everything online or over the phone. I do all my banking online anyway. They do have some offices, they have a branch in downtown Vancouver. I wouldn't be using them for daily banking, i keep TD for that. Just for the TFSA.

I'm skeptical about the price of oil and other commodities rebounding so quickly.

I don't think there is anything wrong with ING.
(I was kidding about not banking with them because they are Dutch )

Funny thing though... My mortgage interest is the same as what you are getting on your savings account...

I have no interest in changing from TD to one of the other big 5, they all have simular rates. Scotiabanks rate is 2.6% so ING is still way ahead.