Canadians just like the Liberals more
hurley_108 @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 8:39 am
We like minority governments, poll shows
$1:
JIM BROWN
Canadian Press
January 6, 2008 at 7:34 PM EST
Canadian voters seem comfortable with the idea of a minority federal government and reluctant to give any party a commanding majority, a poll suggests.
The Canadian Press Harris/Decima survey asked respondents to choose the kind of split they'd ideally like to see in a hypothetical Parliament of 100 seats.
The results, on average, gave 36 seats to the Liberals, 31 to the Conservatives, 15 to the NDP, 10 to the Bloc Québécois and eight to the Green party.
Projecting those percentages to the actual House of Commons of 308 seats, the Liberals would end up with 111 seats rather than their current 96 and the Tories would have 95 instead of their present 126.
The NDP would have 46 seats instead of 30, the Bloc 31 instead of 49 and the Greens 25 rather than zero.
The Liberals came out ahead largely because they were seen as a palatable alternative by NDP and Green voters. By contrast, the Conservatives were the second choice for most Bloc voters.
Bruce Anderson, the president of Harris/Decima, says the numbers can be taken as a warning signal to Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his current Conservative regime.
The Liberal brand name has historically been the one that “people feel more comfortable migrating to, if not as their first choice then as their second ,” said Mr. Anderson.
“And I think that's the case right now.”
He was quick to caution, however, that one poll doesn't mean the Liberals are necessarily on their way to power in the next election.
For example, other surveys have consistently shown Mr. Harper is perceived as a stronger leader than Liberal chief Stéphane Dion — a factor that could turn the tide back in the Tories' favour in the heat of a campaign.
The real bottom line, said Mr. Anderson, is that voters are ready to accept another “polyglot Parliament” no matter which party comes out on top.
That's because they're much less partisan than the politicians who compete for their favour — and may be willing to engage in strategic voting to keep the balance from tipping too far in any direction.
“People who support (various) parties also want to see other parties have significant representation in the House,” said Mr. Anderson.
“Conservative voters feel that way about the Liberal party and Liberal voters feel that way about the Conservative party. The idea that everybody is at daggers drawn . . . just isn't the way Canadians feel about their political choices today.”
The poll of just over 1,000 voters was conducted Dec. 13-17 and is considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times in 20.
A traditional party preference poll — conducted at the same time and previously reported — found 30 per cent of respondents favoured the Conservatives and 32 per cent the Liberals.
Given the statistical margin of error, that put the Grits and Tories in a virtual dead heat. But it was a sharp reversal of trends over the previous several months in which Mr. Harper's
Conservatives often held a lead of five points or better over Mr. Dion's Liberals.
The shift followed several weeks of bad news for the Tories, including revelations about former prime minister Brian Mulroney's business dealings with Karlheinz Schreiber.
The Harper government also faced heavy criticism over its stance at the UN climate conference in Indonesia, and prolonged controversy over a nuclear reactor shutdown that led to a shortage of medical isotopes.
The Mulroney-Schreiber affair, after a brief holiday respite, will be back in the news at the end of this week when David Johnston, president of Waterloo University, delivers recommendations on whether to hold a public inquiry into the affair.
That will be followed, later in the month, by a report from a blue-ribbon panel headed by former Liberal minister John Manley on military options in Afghanistan. Mr. Harper has said he wants to stay the course until 2011, but has also promised Parliament will have the final say in a vote this spring.
Canadian Press
January 6, 2008 at 7:34 PM EST
Canadian voters seem comfortable with the idea of a minority federal government and reluctant to give any party a commanding majority, a poll suggests.
The Canadian Press Harris/Decima survey asked respondents to choose the kind of split they'd ideally like to see in a hypothetical Parliament of 100 seats.
The results, on average, gave 36 seats to the Liberals, 31 to the Conservatives, 15 to the NDP, 10 to the Bloc Québécois and eight to the Green party.
Projecting those percentages to the actual House of Commons of 308 seats, the Liberals would end up with 111 seats rather than their current 96 and the Tories would have 95 instead of their present 126.
The NDP would have 46 seats instead of 30, the Bloc 31 instead of 49 and the Greens 25 rather than zero.
The Liberals came out ahead largely because they were seen as a palatable alternative by NDP and Green voters. By contrast, the Conservatives were the second choice for most Bloc voters.
Bruce Anderson, the president of Harris/Decima, says the numbers can be taken as a warning signal to Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his current Conservative regime.
The Liberal brand name has historically been the one that “people feel more comfortable migrating to, if not as their first choice then as their second ,” said Mr. Anderson.
“And I think that's the case right now.”
He was quick to caution, however, that one poll doesn't mean the Liberals are necessarily on their way to power in the next election.
For example, other surveys have consistently shown Mr. Harper is perceived as a stronger leader than Liberal chief Stéphane Dion — a factor that could turn the tide back in the Tories' favour in the heat of a campaign.
The real bottom line, said Mr. Anderson, is that voters are ready to accept another “polyglot Parliament” no matter which party comes out on top.
That's because they're much less partisan than the politicians who compete for their favour — and may be willing to engage in strategic voting to keep the balance from tipping too far in any direction.
“People who support (various) parties also want to see other parties have significant representation in the House,” said Mr. Anderson.
“Conservative voters feel that way about the Liberal party and Liberal voters feel that way about the Conservative party. The idea that everybody is at daggers drawn . . . just isn't the way Canadians feel about their political choices today.”
The poll of just over 1,000 voters was conducted Dec. 13-17 and is considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times in 20.
A traditional party preference poll — conducted at the same time and previously reported — found 30 per cent of respondents favoured the Conservatives and 32 per cent the Liberals.
Given the statistical margin of error, that put the Grits and Tories in a virtual dead heat. But it was a sharp reversal of trends over the previous several months in which Mr. Harper's
Conservatives often held a lead of five points or better over Mr. Dion's Liberals.
The shift followed several weeks of bad news for the Tories, including revelations about former prime minister Brian Mulroney's business dealings with Karlheinz Schreiber.
The Harper government also faced heavy criticism over its stance at the UN climate conference in Indonesia, and prolonged controversy over a nuclear reactor shutdown that led to a shortage of medical isotopes.
The Mulroney-Schreiber affair, after a brief holiday respite, will be back in the news at the end of this week when David Johnston, president of Waterloo University, delivers recommendations on whether to hold a public inquiry into the affair.
That will be followed, later in the month, by a report from a blue-ribbon panel headed by former Liberal minister John Manley on military options in Afghanistan. Mr. Harper has said he wants to stay the course until 2011, but has also promised Parliament will have the final say in a vote this spring.
How about that, ryan29? Your unconditional love for the Conservatives and abject hated for the Liberals just isn't shared by the Canadian public at large. Most are fairly fluid, having first choices and second choices that they are comfortable moving between at the ballot box, and it seems the Liberals are a lot of peoples' second choice.
sasquatch2 @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 9:09 am
Most politicians do not put much importance in "opinion polls". For the simple reason that the result is usually predetermined by those who commission the poll. They assume that all are rigged hence meaningless. This is why we have elections.
Strategic voting is a stupid concepty as the voter has no diffinitive information on how to vote. Results of NFDLD polls are not released before BC polls close for this reason.
Strategic voting resulted in BOOB RAE winning Ontario and voters waking next day saying "WHAT HAVE WE DONE." The minister in charge of welfare was on welfare before the election and so on. The NDP was a flabbergasted as anyone.
ryan29 @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 11:03 am
what kind of odd poll is this anyways ? asking them what kind of parliament they'd like to see instead of how'd they vote ( we should note this parliament poll came from that same odd poll which showed dion ahead , one of only a few all year to say so . )
th author of this article is jumping to alot of conclusions based on that one fluke poll . and what this seat poll is forgeting is that all these green votes don't lead to an mp being elected , so there 8%-10% of the vote will have less of an effect in a real election .
this poll reminds me of mmp system or something like that .
Scape @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 12:03 pm
The upcoming budget is a confidence vote that will not be supported by the Liberals or NDP, ergo an election will ensue. Based on the polls we are looking at yet another minority. I for one like them.
ryan29 @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 5:37 pm
sasquatch2 sasquatch2:
Most politicians do not put much importance in "opinion polls". For the simple reason that the result is usually predetermined by those who commission the poll. They assume that all are rigged hence meaningless. This is why we have elections.
Strategic voting is a stupid concepty as the voter has no diffinitive information on how to vote. Results of NFDLD polls are not released before BC polls close for this reason.
Strategic voting resulted in BOOB RAE winning Ontario and voters waking next day saying "WHAT HAVE WE DONE." The minister in charge of welfare was on welfare before the election and so on. The NDP was a flabbergasted as anyone.
Strategic voting is a stupid concepty as the voter has no diffinitive information on how to vote. Results of NFDLD polls are not released before BC polls close for this reason.
Strategic voting resulted in BOOB RAE winning Ontario and voters waking next day saying "WHAT HAVE WE DONE." The minister in charge of welfare was on welfare before the election and so on. The NDP was a flabbergasted as anyone.
this poll is definity a good reason as to why we should not put too much importance into polls, its also the same fluke poll which showed dion ahead barely . so why does it not surprise me that the media is still continuing to use it weeks later .
and even if this is the scenario some voters want , it would still be very hard for them to actually make this in reality and the green seats aren't happening so the numbers are way off . this kind of parliament could only happen under mmp system .
kenmore @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:10 pm
The Canadian people just dont trust the tories..they will not give them a majority government.. esp the people of ontario.. most know that all the talk about change and tax breaks was just a ploy to win a majority. people saw through it.. most of the people in the Harper government are fall outs from Mike Harris government and the defunct reformers.. so until the liberals get their shit together there wont be another majority in canada for awhile.... people know that if we gave the tories a majority there would be a shortage of condoms because the whole country would be fucked...
ridenrain @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:39 pm
Listen to youreself, Kenmore. How can you speak for all Canadians? Are you all Canadians? If you were, I fear the best we'd be doing is banging the rocks together, looking for fire.
Streaker @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:43 pm
Well, it speaks volumes that 60-70% of Canadians simply refuse to vote Conservative.
It speaks to Canadians' good taste.
mtbr @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:49 pm
Streaker Streaker:
Well, it speaks volumes that 60-70% of Canadians simply refuse to vote Conservative.
It speaks to Canadians' good taste.
It speaks to Canadians' good taste.
60 to 70% refuse to vote liberal...thats speaks even more volume
mtbr @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:52 pm
ridenrain ridenrain:
Listen to youreself, Kenmore. How can you speak for all Canadians? Are you all Canadians? If you were, I fear the best we'd be doing is banging the rocks together, looking for fire.
Actually I'm really starting to like Kenmore. I hope more Canadians adopt his attitude over the next few months. It's time for a new federal party in Ottawa
kenmore @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 2:03 pm
no I do not speak for Canadian or anyone else.. just statistical information..some taken from ridings through out the country.. all parties.. we really do need change in this country.. and another party with fresh ideas.. without bagage of any sort.. every time we have an election its like playing tennis or watching a soap opera.. back and forth back and forth.... dont you crave something new?
hwacker @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 2:07 pm
Streaker Streaker:
Well, it speaks volumes that 60-70% of Canadians simply refuse to vote Conservative.
It speaks to Canadians' good taste.
It speaks to Canadians' good taste.
Well 30 years of liberal brainwashing would do that.
mtbr @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 2:10 pm
hwacker hwacker:
Streaker Streaker:
Well, it speaks volumes that 60-70% of Canadians simply refuse to vote Conservative.
It speaks to Canadians' good taste.
It speaks to Canadians' good taste.
Well 30 years of liberal brainwashing would do that.
and their own national broadcasting network helping them along the way.....
ryan29 @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 2:46 pm
kenmore kenmore:
The Canadian people just dont trust the tories..they will not give them a majority government.. esp the people of ontario.. most know that all the talk about change and tax breaks was just a ploy to win a majority. people saw through it.. most of the people in the Harper government are fall outs from Mike Harris government and the defunct reformers.. so until the liberals get their shit together there wont be another majority in canada for awhile.... people know that if we gave the tories a majority there would be a shortage of condoms because the whole country would be fucked...
don't think its that canadians distrust the conservatives , oddly the minority parliamnet has been viewed as successful and some see no point or need for a majority parliament.
so the success of this minority parliament has lowered interest in a majority one for either 2 main parties . some voters are content with a few more years of minorites at the federal level it seems .