Good luck Mr Harper your going to need it

By BRIAN LAGHI

Tuesday, January 24, 2006 Page A1

OTTAWA BUREAU CHIEF

Has he really evolved? Or will the fundamental beliefs he's held for a decade prove to be the defining characteristic of Stephen Harper's prime ministership?

After his party spent 12 years in the political wilderness, Mr. Harper will face pressure from his followers and probably from within himself to move quickly on implementing his Conservative agenda when he takes office some time in the next two weeks.

But now that he has been circumscribed by a far more lukewarm endorsement than he had expected, the Conservative Leader will probably have to choose the pragmatic road he travelled during the campaign.

Expect him to implement the more moderate portions of his agenda, co-operate with strange bedfellows such as the NDP and work to build bridges into large portions of the country that still have misgivings about him and his party.

the new minority government will be a difficult challenge for a policy radical who has become prime minister: to pursue long-held passions or continue to build upon the coalition that fell short of a majority last night.

"He's changed a bit - he's more of a politician than he used to be," said Stephen Patten, a University of Alberta political scientist and expert on the Conservative Party.

"But he's still the kind of guy if you give him a choice between a term in power and making some change and three terms in power without making change, he'd pick the single term."

But a single minority term is not what Mr. Harper wants, and last night's results mean he must perform a balancing act, reaching out to other parties in the House of Commons while ensuring he doesn't offend the delicate coalition that elected him.

Now, more than ever, Mr. Harper will have to keep his social conservative wing happy while ensuring its members don't hijack his governing agenda with controversial notions like bringing back abortion or restricting stem-cell research.

He will also have to balance the interests of his home province with those of Central Canada. And he must move to satisfy Quebeckers who feel alienated from the country after the sponsorship scandal.

But Mr. Harper can't move too quickly on other controversial areas -- like the repeal of same-sex marriage or the reform of the Senate -- because the mandate he received last night is not nearly broad enough.

Not only does the party lack significant representation in urban Canada, it fell short in Atlantic Canada and still maintains only a bridgehead in Quebec.

Conservative sources speaking on condition of anonymity say that Mr. Harper does indeed to kick off his mandate with some caution.

One of Mr. Harper's first priorities will be to meet with Quebec Premier Jean Charest to begin discussions over how to deal with the so-called fiscal imbalance. Such a move would solidify gains made by his party in the province, setting him up for the next electoral go-round. It would help to emasculate the Bloc Québécois, and leave Mr. Harper some room to pick up seats in the province. It is in Quebec where the country's next majority will be made.

Mr. Harper also plans to bring the House of Commons back quickly enough to pass a budget that would allow him to implement a one-percentage-point cut to the GST, rising to two percentage points over the next five years. He will also move to pass a new ethics package, implement a crackdown on crime and work with the provinces to establish a medical fund that would pay for patients to be sent outside their province for care if they've been waiting too long.

But these items do not have a high regional component. It will be when Mr. Harper deals with issues like the Senate and how to ensure his home base of Alberta is given a significant voice in the government that cracks could occur. Selling an elected Senate to Ontario and Quebec will be difficult because it would mean more power for the West, and westerners might raise eyebrows if, for example, Mr. Harper delivers an industrial grant to a Quebec corporation for the first time.

Another potential regional flashpoint could be changes to the national program of equalization. As Alberta's economy continues to roar thanks to its oil and natural gas revenues, have-not provinces will demand that the province share more its wealth. Mr. Harper's answer will say much about his ability to balance the interests of his home province with Central Canada.

The same goes for same-sex marriage. Although Mr. Harper is obligated to hold a free vote on repealing the law, the timing of the vote and the ardour with which he pushes it forward is crucial.

Sources said Mr. Harper does not plan to introduce a free vote until the fall parliamentary session, well after he has already passed more symbolic populist legislation like the GST cut.

The fact is though, that a vote will happen, creating at least some controversial debate. The Tory strategy may well be to stay low, but they may have trouble doing so.

To counter these potential flare-ups, Mr. Harper may well revert at day's end to one of the things he does best: economics.

There are still openings for Mr. Harper to deal with items like bringing down internal trade barriers within the country. If he's ambitious, he may also try to push forward a national securities regulator.

But the real key for Mr. Harper is to start campaigning for the next election when he returns to Ottawa today. And that will require an effort that's as disciplined and flexible as the one he gave over the past eight weeks.

Maybe someone will shoot him with a registered firearm.

That would be funny.

Well the Conservatives have members from all regions, there won't be any senators in cabinet as occured with some Liberal governments and except for the urban vote, no thats not right he the conservaties got seats in western cities like Calgary and Ontario cities like Hamalton, the METROPOLITAN vote, so he can form a cabinate, he has a good hand and the chips are still high.

The Liberals chips are low, their in debt, have no one for the leadership, and are not ready to govern or be opposition, they are goning to be out for a while.

The biggest lesson from this election is the CCF IS DEAD. The NDP did not win one seat in Regina or one any rural seats in the west, the NFU values and saving the CWB did get a good reception. This is going to effect the NDP and the role of the Metropolitan vote.

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Personally, that's at least one thing we have our neighbours to the south, there aren't nutcases up here trying to shoot our leaders. And if someone does get in the PM's way, he kicks their ass, like Chretien did to that demonstrator who tried to puch him.

-----------------The poor guy did not tried to punch the pm, chretien savagly assaulted him, even his bodyguards were speachless---------------