Latest poll figures

Despite the country’s fatigue with the Liberal government after four consecutive terms, a new poll puts them on top with a commanding eleven-point lead – a hair away from what in election statistics would be a majority government.

The reason why they’re still on top, experts think? Two words: Stephen Harper.

Canadians aren’t fond of the Conservative leader, something that shows in the Official Opposition’s relatively poor showing in the latest survey, conducted by Pollara.

Across the country, the Grits stood at 38 per cent, while the Tories sat at 27 per cent, and the New Democratic Party at 15 per cent.

Pollara chairman Michael Marzolini, a longtime Liberal pollster, said the whole reason for the Liberals’ lead is voter distaste for the leader.

"Liberal support is artificially high now because of (Harper). If the Conservatives didn't have this hamstring around them ... they would be in the high 40s in the polls,” he suggested.

"A Brian Mulroney type of Conservative leader would have Conservatives in the 50s right now."

The Grits have recovered nicely from their standings in the spring, when damaging details from the sponsorship inquiry caused their popularity to nosedive.

Now poll results would put them within a few points from winning a majority government.

Harper missed a good opportunity to address the country about what he'd do if elected as prime minister, Marzonlini feels, instead lashing out at the Liberals about the sponsorship scandal.

In an attempt to be seen as more of a 'nice guy,' Harper is undergoing an image makeover, and touring Canada to put forward his own ideas and police suggestions on health care and immigration.

Marzolini says that would be a needed change from Harper’s usual topics of the Gomery inquiry and same-sex marriage.

Harper feels he can reach out to ethnic voters by opposing same sex, but by doing that he’s alienating other important groups – women, urban and younger voters.

The survey of 1,259 Canadians was conducted between July 4 and 8. It is considered accurate within 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Pollara poll findings:

In Quebec, the Liberals were at 24 per cent -- 36 points behind the Bloc Quebecois. The Tories had five per cent, and the NDP had six.
In B.C. the Liberals held a 21-point lead, 44 to 23 per cent. Even the NDP was well ahead of the Tories at 28 per cent.
In Atlantic Canada it was 45 Liberal, 33 Conservative, 20 NDP.
The two biggest parties were tied in Ontario outside Toronto, but the Liberals held a 25-point lead in the Toronto area.
The Conservatives held a nine-point lead over the Liberals in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Even in Alberta and Saskatchewan the Tories are doing much worse than they did at the last election

Like this should be a surprise. Harper is the reason the Conservatives didn't win the last election. Had the Cons been smart enough to go with Stronach or Clement, they would have had a chance.

The problem is that to many in the East, Harper represents the hard-core right wing former Reform/Alliance party, not a new amalgamation of the right.

The only way now for the Cons to pick up the pieces is to get rid of Harper and get MacKay to run things. He might not be as far right as the 'faithful' in the West would like, but he'd get the job done.

But this is fine by me, the Cons can keep Harper and accept their lot in life of Official Opposition forever.

Yeah! Harper for life!!!! Keep giving the Cons one of these... [wedgie]

That poll study has a slight contradiction. It says that the Conservatives are going after the ethnic vote but it may alienate voters in big cities and females. Wait a minute, most of the ethnic community lives in big cities and half the ethnic community is female.

I wouldn't trust any of these spinmeisters to find or tell the truth if it bit them in the ass. From what I've read, Pollara did most of the polling for Jean Chretien but I can't imagine that they've changed their tune.

THE HILL TIMES, MONDAY, FEBRUARY 23 - MARCH 1, 2004

Michael Marzolini, Pollara’s chairman and CEO of public opinion and market research, says the public opinion poll that came out in the wake of Auditor General Sheila Fraser’s report on the sponsorship scandal showing Liberal support has dropped badly, is too “issue directed” to be trustworthy.

Mr. Marzolini stressed that the polls to watch will be those that come out in two or three weeks’ time.

“There was only one issue in front of Canadians, and that was the theft of a hundred million bucks,” said Mr. Marzolini about the Ipsos-Reid poll conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV on Feb. 17 which came out a week after the Auditor General revealed that $100-million of the $250-million sponsorship program went to Liberal-friendly ad firms for little or no work.

the rest

Where's Bernard Lord already?

Sheesh......

PLC support more than doubled in Quebec since the last poll.

It shows how the Gomery Comission was affecting the Quebecers.
The problem is that the Bloc support only lost some points

My main reasons for being so dogged on these topics is that constantly questioning the leadership is a great way to keep any party weak. I'm quite sure that a large number of people, especially the media, would find fault with any leader of the conservative party. ( :roll:

)

I honestly don't care if the leader is Harper. From what I read, he's very qualified and I'd much rather a moral and ethical leader than a used car salesman. My trust is more in the party and policies, than just the leader.

The whole point that the people are missing is that Adscam was Liberals giving contracts to advertising and polling companies, then receiving kickbacks. Based on this, why would we believe poll results? Based on a number of things, I don't have much faith in polls.

..And no slagging Baghdad Bob!

..and this would be one of those enlightened, open minded folks who bases opinions of merit, rather than hoary old party dogma?

Can we wad up enough stereotypes there?

^^Why does it matter where you grew up? You should vote based on your beliefs, not "OMFG Westerner! I need French!!!!!"