Liberals have stopped drop in support: poll
Patrick_Ross @ Fri Mar 16, 2007 12:21 am
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/s ... TopStories
$1:
Liberals have stopped drop in support: poll
Liberals have stopped bleeding potential votes and are within five points of the Conservatives, according to the latest poll. But Stephen Harper has made strong gains in Quebec.
The Strategic Counsel conducted the survey between March 10-13 for CTV News and The Globe and Mail.
When respondents were asked who they would vote for today, the results showed little difference from about a month ago (percentage-point change from a Feb. 15-18 poll in brackets):
-Liberals: 31 per cent (+ 2)
-Conservatives: 36 per cent (+ 2)
-NDP: 15 per cent (+ 1)
-Bloc Quebecois: 9 (- 2)
-Green Party: 10 (- 2)
By contrast, the Liberals found themselves down eight percentage points between the Feb. 15-18 poll and another conducted on Dec. 3, just after Stephane Dion won the Liberal leadership race.
At the time, the Conservatives had also launched a series of political attack ads aimed squarely at Dion.
But while Conservative momentum seems to have stalled in much of the country, the latest poll shows a different story unfolding in Quebec.
When respondents in that province were asked which party they would vote for, an increase of voters said the Conservatives (percentage-point change from a Feb. 15-18 poll in brackets):
-Liberals: 22 per cent (none)
-Conservatives: 26 per cent (+ 8 per cent)
-NDP: 9 per cent (+ 1)
-Bloc Quebecois: 36 per cent (- 7)
-Green Party: 7 per cent (- 2)
"It's the lowest we've had the BQ since we've been polling," Strategic Counsel Chairman Allan Gregg told CTV.ca. "It's clear that as the sovereigntist vote shrinks, the available federalist vote grows, and the Conservatives have been far more successful at consolidating that vote."
However, the margin of error for the Quebec sample size is plus or minus 6.3 percentage points (for full details of the poll, please see "Technical notes" below).
While analysts say Harper needs between 38 to 40 per cent support in order to win a majority government, Gregg said the latest results are promising enough that voters could still see a spring election.
"If I was Stephen Harper looking at this, I'd say, 'I still have some work to do, but you know what? I can't do worse than 2006,'" said Gregg.
"He's recovered the ground he's lost post-Afghanistan, same-sex-marriage, I-won't-do-Kyoto, in the province of Quebec. All those seats we'd anticipated he might lose are now back in the win column."
Meanwhile, the Conservatives have stalled in Ontario at 35 per cent support.
"It appears almost impenetrable. He cannot get above 35 per cent -- I mean, we had that little blip in the summer. But by and large, there's a consistent pattern of the Liberals leading," said Gregg.
When Ontario respondents were asked who they would vote for, results remained much the same as last month (percentage-point change from a Feb. 15-18 poll in brackets):
-Liberals: 41 per cent (+ 2)
-Conservatives: 34 per cent (none)
-NDP: 15 per cent (+ 1)
-Bloc Quebecois: N/A
-Green Party: 10 per cent (- 3)
Gregg said that Harper has "pretty much given up on Toronto proper," a notoriously difficult area for federal Conservatives to crack into.
"They've got to start doing something about visible minority groups in the 905 area," he said, referring to Toronto's outlying suburban areas.
Technical notes
-Results are based on tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.
-Interviews were conducted between March 10 and March 13, 2007.
-The national sample size is 1,000. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
-The Quebec sample is 247. The margin of error is plus or minus 6.3 percentage points.
-The Ontario sample is 379. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Liberals have stopped bleeding potential votes and are within five points of the Conservatives, according to the latest poll. But Stephen Harper has made strong gains in Quebec.
The Strategic Counsel conducted the survey between March 10-13 for CTV News and The Globe and Mail.
When respondents were asked who they would vote for today, the results showed little difference from about a month ago (percentage-point change from a Feb. 15-18 poll in brackets):
-Liberals: 31 per cent (+ 2)
-Conservatives: 36 per cent (+ 2)
-NDP: 15 per cent (+ 1)
-Bloc Quebecois: 9 (- 2)
-Green Party: 10 (- 2)
By contrast, the Liberals found themselves down eight percentage points between the Feb. 15-18 poll and another conducted on Dec. 3, just after Stephane Dion won the Liberal leadership race.
At the time, the Conservatives had also launched a series of political attack ads aimed squarely at Dion.
But while Conservative momentum seems to have stalled in much of the country, the latest poll shows a different story unfolding in Quebec.
When respondents in that province were asked which party they would vote for, an increase of voters said the Conservatives (percentage-point change from a Feb. 15-18 poll in brackets):
-Liberals: 22 per cent (none)
-Conservatives: 26 per cent (+ 8 per cent)
-NDP: 9 per cent (+ 1)
-Bloc Quebecois: 36 per cent (- 7)
-Green Party: 7 per cent (- 2)
"It's the lowest we've had the BQ since we've been polling," Strategic Counsel Chairman Allan Gregg told CTV.ca. "It's clear that as the sovereigntist vote shrinks, the available federalist vote grows, and the Conservatives have been far more successful at consolidating that vote."
However, the margin of error for the Quebec sample size is plus or minus 6.3 percentage points (for full details of the poll, please see "Technical notes" below).
While analysts say Harper needs between 38 to 40 per cent support in order to win a majority government, Gregg said the latest results are promising enough that voters could still see a spring election.
"If I was Stephen Harper looking at this, I'd say, 'I still have some work to do, but you know what? I can't do worse than 2006,'" said Gregg.
"He's recovered the ground he's lost post-Afghanistan, same-sex-marriage, I-won't-do-Kyoto, in the province of Quebec. All those seats we'd anticipated he might lose are now back in the win column."
Meanwhile, the Conservatives have stalled in Ontario at 35 per cent support.
"It appears almost impenetrable. He cannot get above 35 per cent -- I mean, we had that little blip in the summer. But by and large, there's a consistent pattern of the Liberals leading," said Gregg.
When Ontario respondents were asked who they would vote for, results remained much the same as last month (percentage-point change from a Feb. 15-18 poll in brackets):
-Liberals: 41 per cent (+ 2)
-Conservatives: 34 per cent (none)
-NDP: 15 per cent (+ 1)
-Bloc Quebecois: N/A
-Green Party: 10 per cent (- 3)
Gregg said that Harper has "pretty much given up on Toronto proper," a notoriously difficult area for federal Conservatives to crack into.
"They've got to start doing something about visible minority groups in the 905 area," he said, referring to Toronto's outlying suburban areas.
Technical notes
-Results are based on tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.
-Interviews were conducted between March 10 and March 13, 2007.
-The national sample size is 1,000. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
-The Quebec sample is 247. The margin of error is plus or minus 6.3 percentage points.
-The Ontario sample is 379. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Arctic_Menace @ Fri Mar 16, 2007 12:33 am
$1:
Here, I'll save y'all some time.....
"Polls don't mean anything"
"The only poll that matters is the one on election day"
"The Globe and Mail is biased"
"Polls don't mean anything"
"The only poll that matters is the one on election day"
"The Globe and Mail is biased"
Too fuckin' true!!!
I bet some people are saying in their minds: "well, shit..."
Rihx @ Fri Mar 16, 2007 4:26 am
lily lily:
Here, I'll save y'all some time.....
"Polls don't mean anything"
"The only poll that matters is the one on election day"
"The Globe and Mail is biased"
"Polls don't mean anything"
"The only poll that matters is the one on election day"
"The Globe and Mail is biased"
OMG A Liberal admiting that the Globe and Mail is biased?!?!
Mr_Canada old @ Fri Mar 16, 2007 6:47 am
Rihx Rihx:
lily lily:
Here, I'll save y'all some time.....
"Polls don't mean anything"
"The only poll that matters is the one on election day"
"The Globe and Mail is biased"
"Polls don't mean anything"
"The only poll that matters is the one on election day"
"The Globe and Mail is biased"
OMG A Liberal admiting that the Globe and Mail is biased?!?!
I want to comment, but I don't have the heart right now.
Someone else smack him, please.
PluggyRug @ Fri Mar 16, 2007 9:01 am
lily lily:
Here, I'll save y'all some time.....
"Polls don't mean anything"
"The only poll that matters is the one on election day"
"The Globe and Mail is biased"
"Polls don't mean anything"
"The only poll that matters is the one on election day"
"The Globe and Mail is biased"
These you need to surround [sarcasm][/sarcasm]
Schleihauf @ Fri Mar 16, 2007 1:45 pm
I think we can all be happy about the BQ going down 7 percent in their own province. I never new that the BQ had so little support.
OnTheIce @ Fri Mar 16, 2007 7:56 pm
Could this be directly related to the CPC stopping their advertisements? It'll be interesting to see where the numbers go when they start back up again
Triple_R @ Fri Mar 16, 2007 8:05 pm
Aside from the sharp decline of the Bloc, I don't see what the big deal here is. It's not like the Conservatives are down overall - they're fine.
The Liberals are getting some support back from the Greens, which was what many political experts expected to happen.
Toronto is liberal... very liberal. I'd have to see four or five straight polls with the Conservatives gaining strength in the GTA to start believing it.
The main news from this poll...
1) The Liberals are getting supporters back from the Greens.
2) The GTA remains a Liberal stronghold.
3) If I had to guess, I'd say that the Conservative gains in Quebec is directly tied to the rise of the ADQ. Dumont has been very flattering towards Harper. I think that the ADQ is very much tied into the federal Conservatives in the minds of many Quebec voters. If you look at where the ADQ is in the polls right now, and where the Conservatives are in the polls in Quebec, it's almost an identical percentage.
baylee @ Sat Mar 17, 2007 7:29 am
Too funny.
Despite all the supposed past Liberal corruption and then leaderless, and now with a leader that no one understands what he is saying, the Cons still can just barely keep ahead of the Liberals.
And CON supporters think it is a good thing to see 35% in the polls
And BTW, the Globe and Mail or CTV did not conduct this poll 
sasquatch2 @ Sat Mar 17, 2007 8:45 am
$1:
baylee
Too funny.
Despite all the supposed past Liberal corruption and then leaderless, and now with a leader that no one understands what he is saying, the Cons still can just barely keep ahead of the Liberals.
Too funny.
Despite all the supposed past Liberal corruption and then leaderless, and now with a leader that no one understands what he is saying, the Cons still can just barely keep ahead of the Liberals.
Perhaps this is further evidence of blind, ignorant support of a party with no link to policy or direction or leadership.
There are a Canadians, catholics, muslems.....and then there are LIBRANO's........
Bodah @ Sat Mar 17, 2007 8:56 am
baylee baylee:
Too funny.
Despite all the supposed past Liberal corruption and then leaderless, and now with a leader that no one understands what he is saying, the Cons still can just barely keep ahead of the Liberals.
Despite all the supposed past Liberal corruption and then leaderless, and now with a leader that no one understands what he is saying, the Cons still can just barely keep ahead of the Liberals.
Your right , that's says alot about the majority of Liberal supporters ....
They could lead some people to their own slaughter and they'd still follow the sheperd.
If your not into critical thinking on your own, vote Liberal !
baylee @ Sat Mar 17, 2007 9:47 am
sasquatch2 sasquatch2:
Perhaps this is further evidence of blind, ignorant support of a party with no link to policy or direction or leadership.
Thats funny
sasquatch2 @ Sat Mar 17, 2007 11:08 am
Funny queer or funny HAHA????????????
LIBRANO's primary loyalty is to the LPoC.
baylee @ Sat Mar 17, 2007 6:27 pm
No "sassy"
You are funny.
But you are also old , bitter and angry at the world so I guess that is your excuse for being the way you are.
No offence meant.
Just the way it is I guess with people your age 
RUEZ @ Sat Mar 17, 2007 6:30 pm
baylee baylee:
No "sassy"
You are funny.
But you are also old , bitter and angry at the world so I guess that is your excuse for being the way you are.
No offence meant.
Just the way it is I guess with people your age
This must be one of those insulting conservative posts that George was talking about. Oh wait a tick....
You are funny.
But you are also old , bitter and angry at the world so I guess that is your excuse for being the way you are.
No offence meant.
Just the way it is I guess with people your age