Maybe Canadians are too busy for politics
Scape @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 12:45 am
$1:
With the federal Liberals in chaos and the Conservatives threatening a fall election, ordinary Canadians continue to produce some of the most baffling public opinion polls in years.
For months, it has been the same story: No matter how much goes wrong for the Grits or right for the Tories, the two parties remain virtually deadlocked in the polls.
It all seems a bit weird.
If Canadian voters are looking for strong leadership, they are not seeing it in Stephane Dion.
Various polls suggest Dion commands a level of public non-confidence not seen at the head of the Liberal party since John Turner marched the Grits to near-oblivion in the 1980s.
At the same time, the rest of the Liberal party has been equally underwhelming in the extreme, apparently devoid of meaningful policy and clearly wrought with fractious infighting.
It all logically explains the Liberals' humiliating results in all three recent Quebec byelections.
Yet, nationally, Liberal popularity is showing an uncanny resilience in the polls, the party's numbers seemingly locked in the low 30s, slightly ahead of the Grit standings in the last election.
If the Grit poll numbers are the biggest mystery in federal politics these days, a close second is the stubborn refusal of public opinion to move to the Conservatives.
With the Liberals on the ropes, and the Bloc Quebecois in decline, why is Stephen Harper's party stuck in park, below even its last election result?
What's up with voters?
Interviews with pollsters, party strategists and other political analysts this week produced no concensus on what's up with voters these days.
One school of thought is that a Conservative party which has become all Harper all the time may have simply reached the limit of his personal popularity among voters.
A simpler explanation for the stagnant polls is that a lot of Canadians have tuned out of federal politics to the point where all the woes of Dion have just washed over them.
As one Conservative analyst puts it, "Canadians have been sent to the polls a lot in recent years, so perhaps we are seeing a kind of election fatigue.
"Combine that with a strong economy and the absence of any really galvanizing issues, and a lot of people are just focused on their own busy lives, making a living and getting the kids to daycare."
Along the same lines, this past week's intensive media coverage of Stephane Dion's office malfunction may be fodder for a slow news week, but it is hardly a national traffic stopper.
"Most people with normal lives will form a general impression that the Liberal party and its leader are having some problems," says a Grit strategist optimistically, "but anything harder than that usually takes some time to gel sufficiently to influence voting intentions."
Nik Nanos, head of SES Research and Sun Media pollster, thinks there are more concrete reasons the poll numbers haven't been moving more in the Conservatives' favour.
EASY TARGET
"The Conservatives have to be careful not to confuse the easy target with the real target," Nanos warns. "And the real target is the Liberal brand, not just the leader."
The pollster, who successfully called the last two federal election results, says the decline of Liberal fortunes in Quebec is more the result of the party's tarnished image there than its fledgling leadership.
Nanos says the relentless Conservative attacks on Dion "might make the PM's handlers feel better," but it is probably not a winning strategy in the longer term.
"With Stephane Dion as low as he is, if you're looking at these numbers, there's just no more political juice out of picking on the guy," Nanos says.
Besides, the pollster adds, "in downtown Toronto and in Vancouver, whoever the leader is doesn't make that much difference because the Liberal brand is still resilient outside of Quebec."
Nanos warns that a sustained savaging of Dion could even backfire.
One reason the Tories seem to be bumping into a ceiling in public opinion, Nanos says, is because they are "still not winning their share of the female vote they need in order to pull well ahead of the Liberals.
"Being overly negative and aggressive on Dion risks reinforcing stereotypical views women have of Harper and the Conservatives - that they're mean."
Will the PM and his strategists suddenly start playing nice with the other kids?
Stay tuned as weird season in Canadian politics continues.
For months, it has been the same story: No matter how much goes wrong for the Grits or right for the Tories, the two parties remain virtually deadlocked in the polls.
It all seems a bit weird.
If Canadian voters are looking for strong leadership, they are not seeing it in Stephane Dion.
Various polls suggest Dion commands a level of public non-confidence not seen at the head of the Liberal party since John Turner marched the Grits to near-oblivion in the 1980s.
At the same time, the rest of the Liberal party has been equally underwhelming in the extreme, apparently devoid of meaningful policy and clearly wrought with fractious infighting.
It all logically explains the Liberals' humiliating results in all three recent Quebec byelections.
Yet, nationally, Liberal popularity is showing an uncanny resilience in the polls, the party's numbers seemingly locked in the low 30s, slightly ahead of the Grit standings in the last election.
If the Grit poll numbers are the biggest mystery in federal politics these days, a close second is the stubborn refusal of public opinion to move to the Conservatives.
With the Liberals on the ropes, and the Bloc Quebecois in decline, why is Stephen Harper's party stuck in park, below even its last election result?
What's up with voters?
Interviews with pollsters, party strategists and other political analysts this week produced no concensus on what's up with voters these days.
One school of thought is that a Conservative party which has become all Harper all the time may have simply reached the limit of his personal popularity among voters.
A simpler explanation for the stagnant polls is that a lot of Canadians have tuned out of federal politics to the point where all the woes of Dion have just washed over them.
As one Conservative analyst puts it, "Canadians have been sent to the polls a lot in recent years, so perhaps we are seeing a kind of election fatigue.
"Combine that with a strong economy and the absence of any really galvanizing issues, and a lot of people are just focused on their own busy lives, making a living and getting the kids to daycare."
Along the same lines, this past week's intensive media coverage of Stephane Dion's office malfunction may be fodder for a slow news week, but it is hardly a national traffic stopper.
"Most people with normal lives will form a general impression that the Liberal party and its leader are having some problems," says a Grit strategist optimistically, "but anything harder than that usually takes some time to gel sufficiently to influence voting intentions."
Nik Nanos, head of SES Research and Sun Media pollster, thinks there are more concrete reasons the poll numbers haven't been moving more in the Conservatives' favour.
EASY TARGET
"The Conservatives have to be careful not to confuse the easy target with the real target," Nanos warns. "And the real target is the Liberal brand, not just the leader."
The pollster, who successfully called the last two federal election results, says the decline of Liberal fortunes in Quebec is more the result of the party's tarnished image there than its fledgling leadership.
Nanos says the relentless Conservative attacks on Dion "might make the PM's handlers feel better," but it is probably not a winning strategy in the longer term.
"With Stephane Dion as low as he is, if you're looking at these numbers, there's just no more political juice out of picking on the guy," Nanos says.
Besides, the pollster adds, "in downtown Toronto and in Vancouver, whoever the leader is doesn't make that much difference because the Liberal brand is still resilient outside of Quebec."
Nanos warns that a sustained savaging of Dion could even backfire.
One reason the Tories seem to be bumping into a ceiling in public opinion, Nanos says, is because they are "still not winning their share of the female vote they need in order to pull well ahead of the Liberals.
"Being overly negative and aggressive on Dion risks reinforcing stereotypical views women have of Harper and the Conservatives - that they're mean."
Will the PM and his strategists suddenly start playing nice with the other kids?
Stay tuned as weird season in Canadian politics continues.
Bruce_the_vii @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 12:49 am
lol. good thesis and good article.
ryan29 @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 6:15 am
well i'm not sure if canadians are too busy , i think maybe some can only get interested in an election if it happens ever 4 years. maybe having all these minority elections is taking away voter interest or there just geting sick of it all.
myself i'm not sure what the problem is , think the parties do a poor job of creating interest and the negative ad campaigns have not helped either.
SideShowCecil @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 7:57 am
At the moment my attention is focused on an upcoming municipal election.
Bruce_the_vii @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:30 am
The manual for politicians runs the Opposition just opposes, nags. I think the opposite would make more sense. To be positive and sell politics. This would include being more honest and direct about any subject rather than obfuscting all the time. Very few people pay attention to all the politicing anyway. Lots of people don't like politicians and they are justified.
ridenrain @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 10:22 am
$1:
The Hill Times, October 8th, 2007
By Angelo Persichilli
Liberals have invented a new strategy to save the party: political euthanasia
The rumour is that the number of Liberals willing to go to the polls this fall is increasing. They want to dump Stéphane Dion.
Displaying start of article containing 947 words - TORONTO–Liberals have invented a new strategy to save their party: it's called political euthanasia. That's exactly what they have in mind for Stéphane Dion. In political quarters in Ottawa, the rumour is that the number of Liberals willing to go to the polls this fall is increasing. It's not because they believe they can win; quite the contrary. They know they are going to face certain defeat and that's exactly what they want. That way, they can go to a statutory leadership review, get rid of Dion, and elect a new leader. Of course, no one is saying so openly, but some are starting to be open about the need to make Dion go away.
By Angelo Persichilli
Liberals have invented a new strategy to save the party: political euthanasia
The rumour is that the number of Liberals willing to go to the polls this fall is increasing. They want to dump Stéphane Dion.
Displaying start of article containing 947 words - TORONTO–Liberals have invented a new strategy to save their party: it's called political euthanasia. That's exactly what they have in mind for Stéphane Dion. In political quarters in Ottawa, the rumour is that the number of Liberals willing to go to the polls this fall is increasing. It's not because they believe they can win; quite the contrary. They know they are going to face certain defeat and that's exactly what they want. That way, they can go to a statutory leadership review, get rid of Dion, and elect a new leader. Of course, no one is saying so openly, but some are starting to be open about the need to make Dion go away.
Fish or cut bait.
Mustang1 @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:08 am
Most don't care because the system generally runs well (and that's provincially and federally). As long as parties deliver peace, order and good government, Canadians seem content and so far, we've been very luck historically, that we can be apathetic.
Also, many turn off at the sign of politics as it can be complex, confusing, contradicting and contentious whereas others unfortunately, wade in (knowing absolutely nothing about anything) because they read a newspaper article and think this whole thing is rather easy. I think both groups deserve disdain.
Scape @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:13 am
M1, with the rash of elections as of late and no clear majority in sight do you think it is voter fatigue that has prevented any major breakthroughs or just brand loyalty has kept things in check then?
ryan29 @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:15 am
ridenrain ridenrain:
$1:
The Hill Times, October 8th, 2007
By Angelo Persichilli
Liberals have invented a new strategy to save the party: political euthanasia
The rumour is that the number of Liberals willing to go to the polls this fall is increasing. They want to dump Stéphane Dion.
Displaying start of article containing 947 words - TORONTO–Liberals have invented a new strategy to save their party: it's called political euthanasia. That's exactly what they have in mind for Stéphane Dion. In political quarters in Ottawa, the rumour is that the number of Liberals willing to go to the polls this fall is increasing. It's not because they believe they can win; quite the contrary. They know they are going to face certain defeat and that's exactly what they want. That way, they can go to a statutory leadership review, get rid of Dion, and elect a new leader. Of course, no one is saying so openly, but some are starting to be open about the need to make Dion go away.
By Angelo Persichilli
Liberals have invented a new strategy to save the party: political euthanasia
The rumour is that the number of Liberals willing to go to the polls this fall is increasing. They want to dump Stéphane Dion.
Displaying start of article containing 947 words - TORONTO–Liberals have invented a new strategy to save their party: it's called political euthanasia. That's exactly what they have in mind for Stéphane Dion. In political quarters in Ottawa, the rumour is that the number of Liberals willing to go to the polls this fall is increasing. It's not because they believe they can win; quite the contrary. They know they are going to face certain defeat and that's exactly what they want. That way, they can go to a statutory leadership review, get rid of Dion, and elect a new leader. Of course, no one is saying so openly, but some are starting to be open about the need to make Dion go away.
Fish or cut bait.
who knows maybe the liberals want an election , but i don't think there is much interest out there for one especially in ontario . don't sense there excited about the though of more lawn signs and more annoying tv ads to look at after spending 1 month looking at them.
think the public is losing interest , unless some kind of importnat issue emerges that would justify an election or increase interest dramatically .
ryan29 @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:21 am
Scape Scape:
M1, with the rash of elections as of late and no clear majority in sight do you think it is voter fatigue that has prevented any major breakthroughs or just brand loyalty has kept things in check then?
a bit of both , voter fatigue is a problem for sure but also brand loyalty in certain regions is why there is minorities.
an example being toronto area where brand loyalty for liberals prevented harper from geting a majority , well maybe it was more than that but certain regions seem more loyal to one party than the others. the states is like that as well and certain states always vote the same it seems.
Mustang1 @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:23 am
Scape Scape:
M1, with the rash of elections as of late and no clear majority in sight do you think it is voter fatigue that has prevented any major breakthroughs or just brand loyalty has kept things in check then?
I think many Canadians lack a pressing issue to motivate them. The Conservatives - again, leaving the banal partisan hackery alone - haven't been that bad, and only the die hard ideologues seem bent on either removing them or replacing them with their philosophy of choice. The great silent majority doesn't see any grave dangers and therefore often rewards an existing government or stays home on election day. While this may seem lackadaisical or apathetic, it really reflects a history of benign governments (despite political strips).
ridenrain @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:27 am
I just find it funny that "Canadians" never want an election when liberals are not in a solid position to win an election. I somehow doubt that Canadians wanted an election in 2000 when Chretien called a snap election a few weeks after Stockwell Day was elected leader.
ryan29 @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 1:36 pm
ridenrain ridenrain:
I just find it funny that "Canadians" never want an election when liberals are not in a solid position to win an election. I somehow doubt that Canadians wanted an election in 2000 when Chretien called a snap election a few weeks after Stockwell Day was elected leader.
maybe the desire for an election is created by the media and political parties , rate now that desire seems to be lacking . no real reasons or pressing issues to go to the polls this fall .
think it will be very hard to create interest for one , mostly because of voter fatigue . not that going to a polling station is such a big deal just that average people really don't have the interest to follow another campaign at this time.
sandorski @ Tue Oct 09, 2007 7:58 am
Pretty much agree with Mustang. Things are going well and there are no major issues. I think Harper has done a very good job, but like the article brings up he really hasn't done anything spectacular to differentiate himself and the Conservatives from the Liberals. In fact, if you looked at recent(last 8-10 years)government policies written down on a piece of paper in order of when they were enacted, you'd probably not have much of a pattern change to recognize.
Other than Harper being more openly Pro-Military, he is pretty much what Martin would have been as PM.
sasquatch2 @ Tue Oct 09, 2007 8:46 am
ridenrain wrote:
$1:
I just find it funny that "Canadians" never want an election when liberals are not in a solid position to win an election. I somehow doubt that Canadians wanted an election in 2000 when Chretien called a snap election a few weeks after Stockwell Day was elected leader.
Yeah that is more or less correct.
But then you have to remember the LIBRANOs practice of announcing THEIR policy with the preface:
"The majority of Canadians......."
And then the trained seals in the MSM set about developing public opion rather merely reporting it.
This is not limited to Canada but seems to be a global trend.....the unabashed promotion of the CO2 AGW and the subsequent supression of it's sceptics success in discrediting it is an signifigant example.