Interesting take, JT is going down because Singh is far too effective. As a result JT will go all out to DESTROY the NDP while impaling his own party at the polls. Sure he will lose, but the NDP will be GONE and the Liberals can always take back office. It assumes that the NDP will fold like a cheap suit without a platform that has been largely coopted by JT and the NDP is largely not trusted by enough to run for government.

   

   

A few points:

-The federal NDP's transition from blue collar workers to urban socialist bureaucrats and academics happened well before Jagmeet Singh became leader. I've seen NDP commentators criticizing the federal party for doing that under Singh's predecessors. It's also been a broader issue on the North American left for a while now, with debates among American Democrats about whether they abandoned the "white working class" and if it's a bad thing, and the British "New Labour" being accused of betraying its working class roots (view the opposition between supporters of Keir Starmer and Jeremy Corbyn);

-I'm not convinced that disagreements over means-tested social programs are what prompted white blue-collar types to abandon the NDP. The NDP's struggled federally before, notably under Alexa McDonough in 1993. The bigger issue has been the 'culture wars' where various minority racial and gender groups have been pushing for what they consider fairer treatment and an end to discrimination. Meanwhile, a lot of white people consider what the minority activists are calling for as BS or as actively harmful, which is why so many of them have shifted right, especially when even conservatives like Pierre Poilievre and Donald Trump are abandoning the neoliberal 'free trade' principles that used to be so dear to them. They're talking more about 'pocketbook' issues that lead a lot of trade union-types to support them, which is one of the big reasons Poilievre is so popular right now;

-I find the Bagel's "poison pill" argument unconvincing. Trudeau's own faltering performance is what got him reduced to a minority in the first place, and the NDP was the only party with enough votes in the House of Commons he could reliably count on to back him. Poilievre would be salivating for a chance to take him down, and the optics of relying heavily on the Bloc Quebecois (not to mention whether the Bloc are even reliable!) would be terrible. And Trudeau is relying on the classic Liberal playbook when he plagiarizes good ideas from the opposition-his Dad did it when the NDP backed his 1972-74 minority, and Preston Manning and the Reform Party set the table for Jean Chretien's spending cuts in the 1990s;

-People were writing the Liberal Party's obituary 12 years ago when Stephen Harper won his majority government and the Liberals were reduced to third place. And quite frankly, I don't think Trudeau can think that far ahead, not when he's put his foot in it strategically on other issues. Singh has not been a particularly effective leader, not with the number of NDP pundits and bloggers I've seen criticizing him, and Trudeau's been more dependent on him with a minority government than the other way around.

-That said, I do agree with the Bagel's analysis of what Poilievre might actually cut if he becomes Prime Minister. He'll keep up the social programs, but he'll nix the economic 'corporate welfare' programs like the infrastructure bank (Paul Wells has written about how poorly designed some of these programs are) and consultants.

   

The NDP under this power sharing agreement have gotten what they wanted at the cost of their platform. Now, like the dog that has caught the bus, are out of political momentum. PP has seen what his party has done in the past and what was over reach and what wasn't. It usually boils down to social programs and the Christian right having too big of a voice in the party. He is smart to keep them on a tight leash.

If PP does 'fix' Canada by going after the corporate welfare (and not just line up the trough for his own supporters) and keep the radicals isolated under mad max then he will be the PM for the next 10 years.

   

HAve you not seen the headlines in the Nazional Post about youth swarming to the Conservatives? The party that opposed dental and pharmacare and day care and queer policies that benefit them mostly.
Thinking they're so mad at Justin they'll cut their noses off to spite their own faces? Just to save 3.5 cents a litre.

   

The NDP are in a very bad way.

   

   

Very astute observations. As Chantel said the talent is going to where they can make a difference and this means they are fleeing from the federal party for the provincial ones that have a shot such as Manitoba and BC and there is no longer any senior statemen in the federal NDP left to replace the ones retiring. The only one that had a real shot was John Horgan and he has been ambassadored out.

Thus Jagmeet is left holding the bag of a shell of a party that has been all but co-opted into the liberal party. The NDP has merged with the liberals by default.

   

   

Pierre Poilivre threatened to make parliament vote all weekend to stop the sustainable jobs act from passing. he not only failed to show up but he didn’t even vote when the moment came. Meanwhile his poor schleps on the back bench are once again left to do the heavy lifting.

This is what gas lighting looks like and the polls show it works.

   

‘Polls are bullshit’ Broadbent Progress Summit hears as politicos talk of potential NDP ‘collapse’

This is the drive of the strategists for the NDP leadership. It is not working and they are too late to see this. Yes, they still have time but their own membership is driven by the momentum and the leadership is directed by consensus so it is like steering the Titanic. They got short term wins (dental care, day care and psedo-national phamacare) for long term loss. Overall, I think they played their losing hand to the best of their ability but we are still going to hit that berg.

   

   

The secret sauce holding together the longest running minority government in Canadian history thru to September 2025?

PENSIONS!!!

   

This is actually how Government is supposed to work. I don't know why everyone wants one party or another to dominate. It's better for us all if parties have to compromise in order to remain in the drivers seat.