Poll gives Conservatives slight lead.

Now I know polls don't mean a lot, but I thought I would post this because every time there is a poll that puts the Liberals in the lead the libbies on this forum get into a circle jerk.

   

I hope this doesn't count as going against the flow, as I'm merely presenting unbiased factual information, but here's an analysis with some actual rigor, rather than just saying "d'uh, this one's got the Conservatives on top and this one's got the Liberals on top."

The poll referenced in the story had the Conservatives over the Liberals 35 to 32, with a margin of error of 2.6%. The others being compared against had the Liberals over the Conservatives 37 to 33 and 33 to 32, both with errors of 3.1% (found in this story.

Add the margins of error, and you get 5.7%. The biggest spread between the conseravtive numbers is 32% to 35%, a difference of 3% which is less than 5.7%, and the biggest spread for the liberals is 32% to 37%, a difference of 5%, which is still less than 5.7%. So really, none of the three polls disagrees with any of the other polls outside of the margins of error.

Furthermore, none of the polls shows a difference between the two parties of more than twice the margin of error within the poll, so none of the polls really says that either party is winning.

   

You can't just add the Margin of error. That's the most retarded thing I have ever seen. Taking two separate polls, but putting the margin of error together makes no sense. What in hell did you get in math?

   

Yes, in fact, you can add the margins of error. See, what the margin of error says is that, in the Leger poll, the one with Conservative over Liberal 35 to 32, that 35% plus or minus 2.6% of people in the general population would vote conservative. Stated differently, that means that between 32.4% and 37.6% of peole would vote Conservative. In the Decima poll, it was 32% plus or minus 3.1%, or between 28.9% and 35.1%.

32.4 to 37.6 overlaps 28.9 to 35.1, meaning that bot polls agree with each other within the margins of error. If those ranges did not overlap, then there would be something to say. As it is, we've basically got three polls saying the same thing. The Liberals and Conservatives are effectively in a dead heat, and don't worry, the NDP won't be making a government any time soon.

   

spin spin spin eh hurley_108 , must suck having no members from your province?

   

Yea, it does suck considering we got enough popular vote last time within Alberta alone to justify at least one seat, but that doesn't change the way statistics work.

   

Polls mean nothing until perhaps the day or week before people vote.