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Aside from gunning down masses of unarmed Uighurs the current Chinese military is entirely untested in anything similar to actual combat. Their battle experience right now is practically non existent. Compare that to what the United States now knows both in terms of modern warfare against a similar foe to irregular combat against militants and terrorists. India, for example, doesn't seem particularly scared of China. Neither does Japan. Even the Vietnamese, who kicked China's ass in 1979 during their border war, would probably enjoy another fight with them just to watch them scramble away in defeat again after failing to penetrate even a hundred miles into Vietnamese territory.

Saying the Chinese are a worse threat than the Soviets were doesn't just not compute, it's actively ridiculous. An inexperienced enemy that even it's neighbours aren't particularly frightened of poses a worse threat than the one Russia did when the Soviet military quite literally had over 40000 nuclear warheads (almost of all which were in the megatonne range) pointed at us? China has a navy that we can't even be certain has any competence in littoral military activities somehow presents a doomsday scenario to North America when it's unlikely to even present a threat to Japan, Australia, or New Zealand? This isn't real, not in the slightest.

The worst thing that would happen to us if a full scale collapse of relations with China happened, and it's highly doubtful that it will ever happen anyway, is economic problems. North America and Europe would clobber them in an open economic war anyway simply by banning any & all Chinese imports from being sold in our countries and depriving them of the revenue we've foolishly allowed them to generate from selling their products here. Those problems wouldn't be fatal for us the way it would be for China, not if their main and most lucrative revenue stream got shut off even for only one year. For the most part it would be a loss of convenience as the shit the Chinese make for us disappeared from store shelves. And as that crap on the shelves that comes from their is for the most part entirely non-vital to begin with it's not like lasting damage would ensue. Not when in short order most of the supply of that sort of thing can be transferred over to Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and India to make. And interruption in supply of junk items is in no way comparable to having 40K worth of nuclear warheads in a state of readiness aimed at us was.

As for Africa who knows? I highly doubt though that it will be the central location for some sort of flashpoint incident. It's not like China is filling the place up with their own soldiers the way Angola or Mozambique got flooded with a bunch of Cuban bozos as proxies for the Russians as happened in the 1970's and 80's. The situation even in Africa is entirely different now than it was back then anyway. The colonials are all gone and any appeal Marxism had for Africans disappeared with them, along with the realization of how much terrible damage such polices caused in the African states that implemented that kind of thinking. Even apartheid is gone resulting in South Africa no longer being a target for it's formerly pro-Soviet and pro-Cuban neighbours. It's entirely doubtful, no matter how much Chinese money is flushing around in Africa, that any of those countries would be willing anyway to be used as proxies ever again.

I just don't see the dire situation that you others do. The Chinese certainly aren't friends. But they're also so far away from being the obvious threat the Soviets were that regarding them that way just seems entirely pointless. The doomsday scenario just doesn't exist anymore no matter how much some people apparently believe that it does.

ETA: Canada's aerial role in Afghanistan was restricted to ground support/ground attack. This is probably what we'll do again in the future as it's far more likely that any new wars we get involved in will be against terrorists & militants again and not countries like China or Russia. And for the ground attack role we really don't need something as pointlessly expensive as the F-35.

   

A nation that can have a base on the dark side of the moon isn't something to sneer at. Troops can be trained, just look at Ukraine, I am sure the Russians thought they would crush the Ukrainians with ease because they thought Ukraine was a bunch of untrained, poorly equipped and led troops. Imagine if Ukraine had China's economy.

China doesn't want war, it wants dominance and it is playing the long game to do it.

   

You're not scared of the single 70 year old prop engine bomber they send to snoop and test our reactions every once in a while?
And you noticed the Ukranians aren't downing Russian jets in dogfights?

F35s should be nicknamed WhiteElephant. So much money's been spent, we all have to buy them.

   

China also has a scenario unfolding right now where they're looking at 800 million people getting COVID in the same short period of time over the next month or so. Toss in a 1 to 3% death toll among the infected, given that their own vaccines were no where near as effective as the ones distributed in the West were, and anywhere from eight to twenty four million people in China could be dead within a few weeks or months. Maybe even a lot more than that will die given that they're looking at a definite collapse of their medical system which will result in further deaths from other illnesses, diseases, injuries, etc as the COVID sufferers take up over 100% of the systems resources. Hell, just tack on an extra 10% to that probable toll simply from the fact that China has a massive population of irredeemable tobacco smokers who've already clobbered their own respiratory systems from their lifelong habits and have no chance against even a mild COVID strain & even if they're vaccinated.

So tell me again what threat this country, one that is in far more threat to itself from its own domestic problems, immediately & actively poses to us right now at this very moment that's so great we need to give Lockheed a billion dollars each for a fighter plane over the course of its service lifetime?

   

Ever heard of the term to big to fail? China can and will lose millions to covid, as Lord Farquaad would say 'Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make.'

If that is what they are willing to do to their own what do you think they will do to you?

   

They'll do sweet fuck all to me, or to you, or to anyone else here. That's because there's a nice big ocean between us and them that they're incapable of crossing in force because the United States Navy will blow all of them out of the water before they even get past Guam or Wake Island.

They should be more concerned about what we can do to them overnight if we wanted to. Like collapse their entire economy by banning all their exports and from strategically defaulting on paying back any money that's been borrowed from them. The West could put China back into the 19th century in heartbeat if they ever tried to threaten or intimidate us into some sort of retreat. Knock the underpinnings out from their entirely export-based economy with boycotts, blockades, and reverse embargos and it'll be like the Great Depression times a million over there in the blink of an eye. Yeah, we'll get damaged too somewhat, but that just means national pride over common sense is bad for both sides in this mutually parasitic relationship we have with each other. But who'll be standing at the end of it is obvious and it certainly won't be the crony capitalist communists of the Chinese government.

They love our money too much to do anything that might see it being cut off. They aren't going to do anything to us that we can't handle. Why you apparently believe it's some sort of a DEFCON-One situation with them right now is something you should probably explain.

   

Yet in Canada we have Chinese police stations on Canadian soil.

No one is an island. They tolerate us only so far as to expand their own economy, otherwise we are seen as vermin to be exterminated.

   

   

I'll tap out and leave the last word to others. Not because I'm wrong but just because I'm tired. I remain thoroughly unconvinced about the inevitability of conflict with the Chinese. And I disagree even more with the idea that they're the next Great Evil along the lines of Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union.

I've been stung too many times by the doom preachers and I work hard at not falling for it again. You others might try the same approach. And I'm not saying to do nothing, especially in regards to Canada's absolutely deplorable funding of our forces. Just don't rush to the most expensive rig on the showroom floor. The sales people are very good at talking someone into buying it even if it obvious they don't need it when other much more reasonably priced options are readily available.

*cough*cough* the infinitely reliable and obsolescence-defying F-16 is going into it's Block 70 package and remains the same good ol' steal of a deal it's always been - five or six F-16 for the price of one F-35 - wOOt! *cough*cough*

   

Far be it by me to poke the cocaine bear but Communists can't be trusted with power, they only want more just ask the Uighurs, the Taiwanese or Philippine fishermen.

   

I don't think it's inevitable either, but look at things like how China is taking over in Africa and South America using financial means. They may not be then next Nazi Germany, but they could be the next Belgian King looking at the resources of Africa. Recall China made claim to our Arctic Archipelago.



Preaching to the Preacher, bud. We could have interoperability now, buying more for less.

   

Sri Lanka: A country trapped in debt

Whole countries are being enslaved to China. Their hunger will not be satisfied until the world order has them as the dominate leader. Only corruption from within will stop this or war.

   

The PLA of 2022 is far different than the PLA from 1979. Back then, they were full on believers of Soviet doctrine and thought large numbers of conscripts with low tech weapons would overwhelm the enemy. Now, the thousands of Mig-15s, Mig-17s, Mig 19s and Mig-21s that they had in the early 2000s have been replaced by much more advanced planes, and those old Cold War-era planes have been turned into drones/cruise missiles.

Likewise, Vietnam today is far different than it was in 1979. Back then, it had just come out of more than 20 years of fighting France and then the US and her allies (ROK, Australia, etc.) and their troops had years and years of combat experience. Today, just like the Chinese, that experience is gone entirely or lives on in a handful of generals and senior NCOs.

A war between China and Vietnam today would be very different than 1979. The Chinese would certainly struggle, simply because northern Vietnam, like northern India, is difficult terrain and not well-suited to mechanized warfare. However, I think they would be able to force Vietnam to the negotiating table after 3 to 6 months of hard fighting.




The Chinese threat is more serious because they have the second largest economy, while the USSR was second, Japan and Germany were both nipping at its heels (the US had three times the GDP the USSR produced). By the mid-80s, the USSR was barely in the Top 5 by 1970, with Japan, Germany, France and the UK surpassing it.

The reason the US has the best equipped, highest tech armed forces on the planet is because its economy is so much larger than its rivals. Until recently, US GDP was about three times as large as the number 2 economy - Japan, and it was close to even with the entire Euro Zone.

The Soviets thought you could have guns instead of butter, and both the Chinese and Americans know you need lots of butter to pay for lots of guns.




That's why China launched the Belt and Road Initiative - to create markets for its goods. It knows that the West could kneecap it in the future, and the BRI is a long term play for global economic dominance.

And you might have been correct that cutting off all trade with China would cause some short term disruptions two decades ago, but now they have been integrated into global supply chains for more than just appliances and clothing. They are large manufacturers of drugs, electronics, auto parts, and plenty of other key items modern society needs to function. To decouple from China will take at least a decade, and as the pandemic has shown, a lot of shortages and difficulties along the way.




I agree that the situation isn't dire, but we still need to be on guard and push back against dictatorships around the world, especially when one of them has the second largest economy on the planet - and is striving to not just become the top economy, but dominate and bully everyone else too.




Agreed - we probably would have gotten 88 Super Hornets had Boeing not stupidly poked a fight with Bombardier over the C-Series. That plane likely would have been fine for the purposes we need multi-role aircraft for future roles. Now, we didn't really have a lot of other options, as the Typhoons and Rafales are nearing the end of their lifespans.

   

Industry isn't something you can create at the snap of your fingers, it requires long term investment.

   

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