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Dion needs strong showing in March 17 byelections
Updated Sun. Mar. 9 2008 9:20 AM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

Four federal byelections will be held on March 17 and Liberal Leader Stephane Dion needs a strong showing to prove he's still the man for his party's top job.

The ridings -- Saskatchewan's Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, B.C.'s Vancouver Quadra and Ontario's Toronto Centre and Willowdale -- were all won by Liberals in the 2006 federal election.

Last September, Dion's leadership abilities were called into question after the Liberals came up empty-handed in three byelections, while the Tories and NDP gained ground.

The big hit for Dion was losing the longtime Liberal stronghold of Outremont to Thomas Mulcair of the NDP.

On March 17, CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife said the Liberals need to win at least three of the ridings.

"If the Liberals win at least three, or all four, it will show that the Liberal brand remains very strong," Fife told CTV.ca.

Fife said despite some of the problems that Dion has had as leader, a strong outcome will show that "Canadians still like a Liberal party and they're not as dissatisfied with his leadership as some people might think they are."

Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River

The biggest question mark for the Liberals is in northern Saskatchewan, where, in 2006, they took a narrow victory over the Tories -- 10,191 votes (41.4 per cent) to 10,124 votes (41.1 per cent) respectively.

Adding to the challenge, Dion appointed former Saskatchewan New Democrat Joan Beatty to represent the party in the byelection.

The appointment sparked a backlash among some Liberal party members.

Dion, who has made it a priority to involve more women in politics, chose Beatty over one of his key leadership supporters, anti-free-trade activist David Orchard.

Beatty is up against:

Rob Clarke, Conservative Party of Canada
Brian Morin, New Democratic Party
Robin Orr, Green Party of Canada
Vancouver Quadra

In Vancouver Quadra, a riding that has been Liberal for nearly 25 years, the Grits are expected to pull out a victory.

In 2006, the Liberals took 28,655 votes (49.1 per cent) compared to 16,844 (28.9 per cent) for the Tories.

Fife said a loss in Vancouver, would be a "real significant blow" to Dion's leadership but he said it was unlikely to happen.

The candidates in Vancouver Quadra are:

Rebecca Coad, New Democratic Party
Psamuel Frank, Canadian Action Party
Dan Grice, Green Party of Canada
Deborah Meredith, Conservative Party of Canada
Joyce Murray, Liberal Party of Canada
John Turner, neorhino.ca
Safe in Ontario

The two Ontario seats, both longtime Liberal ridings, are expected to remain with the party.

Bob Rae, a one-time Ontario NDP premier and Liberal leadership hopeful, is the Liberal candidate in Toronto Centre.

Meanwhile Martha Hall Findlay, a former Liberal leadership candidate, is seeking election in Willowdale.

Fife said Rae and Findlay would be tremendous additions to the Liberals in the House of Commons.

"Bob Rae will be a huge asset," said Fife. "He can talk substantively on almost any major issue ... I think it will give the Liberals enormous confidence in the House of Commons."

Rae is often viewed as the de facto leader in the sense that he's approached for his viewpoint on major issues like the economy, foreign affairs or social policy, said Fife.

He also said Findlay was another "star" in the Liberal arsenal.

"Martha Hall Findlay is an enormous asset... she's a very strong person," said Fife.

But for Dion, there could be the possibility that he will be overshadowed in Parliament, especially by Rae.

"It's certainly possible," said Fife. "Michael Ignatieff shines over Stephane Dion in the House of Commons and Bob Rae, because he's a much better parliamentarian, will outshine both of them."

Rae is up against the following candidates in Toronto Centre:

El-Farouk Khaki, New Democratic Party
Donald Meredith, Conservative Party of Canada
Doug Plumb, Canadian Action Party
Chris Tindal, Green Party of Canada
Liz White, Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party of Canada
Findlay is battling the following candidates in Willowdale:

Lou Carcasole, Green Party of Canada
Rini Ghosh, New Democratic Party
Maureen Harquail, Conservative Party of Canada

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/s ... TopStories

   

why in the media is it that dion needs a strong showing ? what about the other parties ? don't they need a strong showing as well ? why does there article only show pictures of the liberal candidates running in the by-elections .

anyways it will be interesting to see how things turn out in these 4 ridings next monday , maybe there will be some surprises . and i doubt any party will win all 4 by-elections , that rarely happens when there is 4 by-elections on the sameday . usually there spilt between parties.

   

was a new poll on the global news tonight by ipsos ( which is not yet on there website ) that says cpc is still ahead of liberals nationwide at 35 % to 31 % liberal , 15 % ndp . even after the cadman thing .

so it will be interesting to see how these by-elections turn out with numbers like those , i suspect the 2 in toronto are in such liberal areas dion can hold on to those even with poor nationwide liberal numbers . although the willowdale one might be a bit closer on election night than Martha had hoped for.

it is still unclear how the 2 out west might turnout with the churchill river seat looking like liberals might be in trouble there. after dion appointed the candidate instead of having a nomination meeting.

but the problem for the liberals is these are all liberal seats , and they can't really afford to lose any but with polling numbers like those that just might happen .

   

well the by-elections are almost over , as for dion i'd be surprised if he wins more than 3 of these by-elections . the 2 outwest appear to be the most in play and ones that could fall to other parties tonight .

toronto it appears will always vote liberal and bob rae has put alot of effort into winning that seat. so i'd be surprised if he doesn't win it.

i'll be back on later tonight with live results and more information on the by-elections . stay tuned .

   

Vancouver and Toronto would vote Liberal even if George Bush was the leader.

   

I agree that these are elections Dion should not lose. All four ridings were Liberal and I believe all of them are traditional Liberal strongholds. Coupled with the fact that they are running some star candidates, should Dion lose 2 out of 4 it would be a disaster for the party. If he lost 3 or 4 of 4 then I doubt he would remain as leader.

   

I don’t understand why all this attention is being paid to these by-elections in the first place. All four are Liberal strong holds, you’d have to be a complete idiot to lose these ridings. Mind you Jocelyn Coulon lost in Outremont which up until that point in time was also considered a Liberal safe riding.

I all most hope they lose afew of these seats, it might wake them up a bit and get them to actually vote on something instead of abstaining from every vote.

   

well 3 of the 4 are liberal strongholds ( churchill river has been ndp , independent , conservative and liberal since 1997 , know all over the map ) ok it didn't vote for an independent but mp became one after he left liberals and that was partly why conservatives won the riding in 2004 .

its really the one to watch tonight , also vancouver quadra might be closer than expected .
but after all the biased media coverage of these by-elections i'd also love to see dion lose a few of them .
some articles have been so biased and only shown liberal candidates pictures and ignored the rest . and they failed to mention conservatives and ndp also were running minority candidates . conservatives have 2 women , black candidate in toronto centre and native cand in churchill river. but all the articles foucused on how wonder if was that dion is bring more women and minorities into politics .

say what about the other candidates don,t they fit the same idea ? or did the media just forget to mention this ?

   

Just watch:
If Liberals win it will be a huge victory for Dion and proof that the Liberals are building momentum.
If the Liberals lose it will be just another by-election and it will swiftly be dismissed by the media.

   

This should be interesting......the pundits have shown about the same accuracy as climate models lately......

   

i don't disagree with you for a second . but it seems the media has allready pre-determinded the winner is the 3 urban ridings ( guess we find out if there accurate or not )
voter turnout is the only unknown factor .

but i don't thnk these mean momentum for the liberals as there all liberal seats going into the by-elections , so its not like there gainign ground on the cpc .

   

Okay grainfed, your wrong here.

Toronto Centre
Willowdale
Vancouver Quadra

these ridings are Liberal strongholds.

The Northern Saskatchewan riding is not a Liberal stronghold, it went NDP in the early 90s, then Liberal, then Independent, then in 2004 it went Conservative, then in 2006 it went Liberal by 67 votes.

The CPC has an aboriginal RCMP officer running in the Northern Sask. riding, and their was tons of contrevesry about Joan Beatty's appointment by Dion, so the Northern Sask riding WILL be going Conservative tonight.

The other 3 ridings are in the bag for the Liberals, but the margin of win is the key factor here, it will be interesting to see how close the gap is between the Liberals and Conservative in Vancouver Quadra.

And Toronto would vote Liberal if the candidate was a shovel.

   

Or they believe that Deborah Meredith, who has lived in Quadra all her life and taught at law at UBC, really dosen't need Harper hanging around.
Either way, we're going to see the results in a couple of hours.

   

I'm still having a hard time understanding how the Liberals are going claim they are making great strides and how they've gained momentum if they win these seats. It's more akin to treading water in my opinion.

   

Its like the Conservatives winning 3 ridings in rural Alberta and Saskatchewan.

These 3 ridings are Liberal Grassroots.

   

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