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NDP dream scenario a Liberal nightmare
TheStar.com - Federal Election - NDP dream scenario a Liberal nightmare

September 27, 2008
Thomas Walkom

Are Jack Layton's New Democrats on their way to replacing the Liberals as the default anti-Stephen Harper party?

That's certainly what Layton bet on when he kicked off a campaign that – unusually for his party – virtually ignored his Liberal rivals in order to focus on the Conservative government.

And it's what an Angus Reid poll published in today's Star suggests.

The poll estimates that 40 per cent of voters now favour Harper's Conservatives, enough to give them a majority in Parliament if this trend holds until Oct. 14.

But more interesting are Reid's second-place results. These show that the sinking Liberals are now tied with the New Democrats at 21 per cent nationally.

Now, polls are polls are polls. They can't predict election results (voters do change their minds). They are only as good as their methodology.

The Reid poll is done online, which automatically eliminates from consideration voters who don't have computers. Its margin of error is a standard plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

But it's not widely off other surveys based on telephone polls. Yesterday's Nanos Research tracking poll, for instance, also shows the Liberals and the NDP in a statistical tie for second place.

As well, both polls fit with events on the ground. Senior Liberals have taken to sniping publicly at their own campaign, a sure sign of sinking morale. In British Columbia, Harper is shifting his focus of attack from the Liberals to the NDP, an indication (backed up by today's Star poll) that Layton is overtaking Dion.

In Quebec, traditionally a wasteland for the NDP, Layton is receiving an unusual amount of favourable attention. Today's Star poll suggests that the Liberals and New Democrats are now in a statistical tie there for third place (after the Bloc Québécois and the Conservatives).

In my own, unscientific ramblings around southern and central Ontario (where the NDP and the Liberals are in a statistical tie for second place), I've sensed two things. First, most people planning to vote Conservative say they won't change their mind.

But those who say they oppose Harper are far more fluid. Some say they just don't like Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion. Others say they are anxious to keep Harper from winning a majority, but are just not sure how to do it.

Traditionally, the Liberals have exploited any anti-Conservative sentiment. In 2006, for instance, Paul Martin's Liberals managed at the last minute to present themselves as the party best able to prevent a Harper majority – and did so.

But this time, they are labouring under severe disadvantages.

Rightly or wrongly, the voters have bought into the Conservative contention that Dion is a weak leader.

Today's Star-Reid poll, for example, estimates that only 12 per cent of voters approve of Dion – compared to 36 per cent for Harper and 35 per cent for Layton.

   

This is going to be a historic election, and a big shake up for Canadian politics.

   

If Layton could prove himself has a viable alternative to the Liberal we could end up with a NPD minority government.

Which I could live with very well.

A Bloc NDP alliance could work very well

   

The only thing worse than an NDP minority government would be an NDP majority!



Only if you want to see the end of Canada. Oh, you're a separtist, so that would seem good news to you!

   

Also to note, the Libs and Tories are tied in Toronto.

   

I would be quite happy with a Converative majority and a NPD opposition

   

fist time in a long time that I hope the polls are true

   

I would be happy with either a conservative minority or majority with the NDP as the official opposition. Would keep the conservatives in check.

   

I actually liked some of Laytons ideas, Dion is just a tool.

   

agreed, both harper and laytopn have things i like and don't like, Dion is just retarded... I don't care what his credentials are. Too bad Iggy wasn't appointed leader.

   

   

Ditto. Voters switching from the Liberals to the NDP is a great scenario for the Tories.

But I can't imagine the electoral landscape changing that much. The Liberals are still the Natural Governing Party. The NDP won't replace them.

   

The polls are not quite there. The polls are close to the same dead lock as before. Only Dion takes a hit. Stay tuned.

   

NDP as official opposition...

Stephen Harper Majority......scares the crap out of me...

   

Why? And let's not hear of the "secret agenda", just reasons to fear a harper majority.

   

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