But Wide Lead in Ontario Keeps Tories in the Game Nationally, Tories (37%) Hold Lead Over Grits (23%), NDP (19%), Greens (10%) and Bloc (10%)
October 4, 2008

Contact Darrell Bricker at (416) 324-2001

Category Ipsos Reid/Global/National Post , Politics & Elections (National)
Location Canada



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Toronto, ON – Amid the backdrop of an economic crisis south of the border and plummeting markets on both sides of it, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted between Tuesday and Thursday of this week, on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global National, reveals that the Tories have tumbled in Quebec, likely fuelled at least in part by the arts cut controversy that has been dogging the Prime Minister, and the French-Language leaders’ debate.


While the national numbers still position the Tories (37%, down 2 points) well ahead of the Liberals (23%, unchanged), NDP (19%, up 1 point), Green Party (10%, down 1 point) and Bloc (10%, up 2 points), it is in Quebec where the political landscape has just recently shifted:

Within Quebec, the Bloc reasserts its commanding lead over the other parties, and would secure 40% support if the vote were to happen tomorrow. The Liberals, with 24% among decided voters (up 4 points), have jumped into second place, while the stumbling Tories (18%) have slipped 6 points in this province. The NDP (11%, down 7 points) and Green Party (6%) lag behind.

In seat-rich Ontario, the Tories (40%, down 1 point) are relatively unchanged, as are the Liberals (26%, down 2). The NDP, however, has gained 5 points and now sits at 21% support among decided voters, running safely ahead of the Green Party (13%, unchanged).

In British Columbia, the Conservatives (40%) are the front runners, and the NDP (24%) is in second position. The Liberals (21%) have pulled ahead of the Green Party (14%).

In Alberta, the Conservatives (66%) continue to enjoy dominance over all the other parties, including the NDP (17%), Greens (10%) and Liberals (6%).

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (45%) are in the lead, while the NDP (27%) remains ahead of the Liberals (23%). The Green Party (6%) is struggling in this part of the country.

In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives (38%) lead the Liberals (30%) and the NDP (21%), while the Green Party (9%) trails.

With significant ground lost in Quebec, these numbers suggest that Prime Minister Harper and his Conservatives are still shy of a majority government, despite picking up a few more seats in Ontario. But coming into the home stretch of the campaign, things could still change.


A parliamentary seat model has been rendered by Dr. Barry Kay from the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy. The seat projection is based on an aggregate of polling data collected by LISPOP since the outset of the election, and this latest seat model has been updated to include this latest Ipsos Reid poll. Ipsos Reid does not create the seat model but contributes its findings to an aggregate base of polls used by Dr. Kay for the analysis.


With this current poll contribution to that aggregate base, the projection shows the Conservatives currently just shy of a majority with 153 seats for the Conservatives, 76 for the Liberals, 48 for the Bloc, 30 for the NDP, and 1 independent. For more information about the methodology and these projections, please visit www.wlu.ca/lispop/

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4109

   

thats just plain embarrassing , guess the carbon tax and dion did not prove to be too popular out there . wonder how many liberal riding associations will now not even get back there deposit ? and go broke after this election as well .

and its funny that the media does not even cover this story and instead is fixated on conservative numbers in quebec instead . its like they don't even care what the rest of the country thinks.