China wins video game simulation wars. The US Navy wins actual real wars.
I'm also skeptical that China could beat the US in a real conflict anytime soon, although in 20 years, that could certainly change.
The USN and USAF are too well-equipped, too well-trained currently to lose a war with China. While I'm sure the DF-21 is better than the crappy Silkworm missiles the media worried about in Desert Storm, I'm sure the SM3 is also light years better than the old SM missiles the USN used to shoot down those Silkworm missiles. While Anderson and Kadena bases are static and theoretically easier to hit, they are also surrounded by civilian areas and any misses will cause lots of casualties and likely draw significant negative international reaction.
If they throw enough money and lives at it they will have an effect. Even if they lose 100,000 troops and equipment if they were to sink ONE carrier the impact would be enormous. China can throw away troops, the US can't and China can spin any US losses as a win.
However, neither side wants conflict only the appearance of one. They gain far more on both sides domestically blaming the other side for their problems then actually facing up to their responsibilities to their own citizens.