Will the North Korean crisis end US-China trade?
BartSimpson @ Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:39 am
When North Korea started up this recent confrontation by threatening nuclear war on the US, South Korea, and Japan the Nork's buddies in Beijing told the US that they'd go to war to protect Lil' Kim.
So China picked sides.
Now President Trump has put China (and to a lesser extent, Russia) on notice that we're looking to embargo trade with any country that does business with war-mongering North Korea.
China's Foreign Minister was in a press conference on Euronews where he responded to this and he looked like someone had kicked his puppy. "It's not fair" he said. 
The White House this morning asked the House Foreign Affairs Committee to look at drafting legislation to revoke China's 'most favored nation' trading status with the USA as an opening salvo in what is shaping up to become a trade war.
Depending on how China acts in this crisis they might be opening the door for the Trump Administration to exploit the North Korea crisis to use to address numerous trade problems and strategic problems with China.
* * *
My own thoughts here is that I anticipate China to become more aggressive in the South China Sea, I expect Chinese cyberwarfare against the US to step up its pace, and I expect China to do more business with the DPRK and not less.
Winter is coming.
DrCaleb @ Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:58 am
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
I expect China to do more business with the DPRK and not less.
I don't see China giving up their cheap labour source anytime soon.
I wonder if they are more attached to it, or trade with the US?
BartSimpson @ Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:10 am
It's a combination of Chinese nationalist pride, Middle Kingdom complex, and the ongoing inability of the Chinese Politburo to fully comprehend how trade is supposed to work.
That's why I see the US and China at an impasse.
The US doesn't want to be hit with a nuke and we're not entirely confident in our anti-missile capabilities. The US with President Trump is also not going to pay any more extortion to that little fat fuck in Pyongyang.
China wants the US to bow to China's 'natural' place as the ruling power of the entire world and the Politburo will double-down on their support of the DPRK precisely because the US doesn't want them to.
The problem here is that while a trade war will impact the US it will hit China even harder.
For the US we'll have manufacturers pop up within weeks to exploit the dearth of cheap crap at Wal Mart while China will be faced with legions of unemployed peasants who will wonder why their government sacrificed prosperity to protect the DPRK.
Bottom line: an all-out trade war with China virtually guarantees DJT re-election in 2020. It also virtually guarantees China an internal struggle and maybe even a revolution.
BartSimpson @ Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:11 am
Oh, and expect the US to pressure Canada to stop selling oil and coal to China.
CharlesAnthony @ Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:18 am
Yeah, but how is this going to affect Sony?
Strutz @ Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:18 am
$1:
Congress returns from a summer break on Tuesday and Mnuchin is drafting a sanctions package to present to the president.
He told Fox News the package would indicate "that anybody that wants to do trade or business with [North Korea] would be prevented from doing trade or business with us," a pointed reference to the North's allies China and Russia.
Beijing continues to export crude oil and food to Pyongyang, but the U.S. cutting off business with the Chinese could cause profound economic pain. The U.S. and China do more than $600 billion in annual trade.
Decades of dithering in Washington about what to do about North Korea have led up to this moment, said former State Department adviser David Asher, who headed a task force into North Korea during the George W. Bush administration.
"Where on earth is the North Korean regime getting the money for all this nuclear activity? Their GDP is eclipsed by these programs, so obviously they're getting outside assistance."
He told Fox News the package would indicate "that anybody that wants to do trade or business with [North Korea] would be prevented from doing trade or business with us," a pointed reference to the North's allies China and Russia.
Beijing continues to export crude oil and food to Pyongyang, but the U.S. cutting off business with the Chinese could cause profound economic pain. The U.S. and China do more than $600 billion in annual trade.
Decades of dithering in Washington about what to do about North Korea have led up to this moment, said former State Department adviser David Asher, who headed a task force into North Korea during the George W. Bush administration.
"Where on earth is the North Korean regime getting the money for all this nuclear activity? Their GDP is eclipsed by these programs, so obviously they're getting outside assistance."
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-claim-options-1.4274518
But will the sanctions be enough?
martin14 @ Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:40 am
Strutz Strutz:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-claim-options-1.4274518
But will the sanctions be enough?
But will the sanctions be enough?
It's never been in the past, so it won't work now.
Sanctions would generally only affect the general population, and the Norks
civilian get very little from the West anyway.
I really wish now I hadn't read the cbc link you posted.....
It's amazing how stupid the MSM really is some days.
$1:
Making the option of using such weapons unthinkable or at least extremely unappealing for North Korea could come down to more deterrence through military exercises and shows of regional co-ordinated military strength, experts say.
Really, more military exercises is the answer.
How dumb can you get, and how dumb can you be for printing such drivel ?
$1:
the North Korean leader is also gambling that the U.S. would be hesitant to risk the lives of its own citizens by intervening in the North's ultimate goal of reunifying the Korean Peninsula, Ruggiero said.
Hesitant ?
Sure, they won't risk their citizens, except for the military already in the South.
No shit, first Nork soldier over the border, first missile into Seoul or Tokyo,
and the US will just nuke 'em. Game over.
$1:
Likely Pyongyang now believes it may have reached a point at which it's too late for the U.S. to try to take away its atomic weapons, he said.
It just gets more dumb. The only way the US could have 'taken away the nukes',
like babby's favorite toy, would be to change the regime in the North.
They never had to worry, the Chinese have prevented that for decades now.
$1:
Decades of dithering in Washington about what to do about North Korea have led up to this moment, said former State Department adviser David Asher, who headed a task force into North Korea during the George W. Bush administration.
This about the only true thing in this article.
Decades, both sides, Obama doing nothing was just as bad as Bush doing not much more.
Strutz, please, I'm begging you, stop reading the CBC.
It's just horse-hockey, and lots of idiocy.
DrCaleb @ Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:48 am
martin14 martin14:
$1:
Making the option of using such weapons unthinkable or at least extremely unappealing for North Korea could come down to more deterrence through military exercises and shows of regional co-ordinated military strength, experts say.
Really, more military exercises is the answer.
How dumb can you get, and how dumb can you be for printing such drivel ?
That's pretty much exactly what the US Ambassador to the UN said yesterday.
$1:
The idea that some have suggested of a so-called freeze-for-freeze is insulting. When a rogue regime has a nuclear weapon and an ICBM pointed at you, you do not take steps to lower your guard. No one would do that. We certainly won’t.
https://usun.state.gov/remarks/7953
Canadian_Mind @ Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:58 am
American factories wouldn't be able to produce goods as cheaply. What is to stop companies from moving manufacturing to Africa and Latin America?
martin14 @ Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:14 pm
Canadian_Mind Canadian_Mind:
American factories wouldn't be able to produce goods as cheaply. What is to stop companies from moving manufacturing to Africa and Latin America?
Very few of those countries have "most favoured trading" status.
but, in the end, nothing would stop them from looking at it.
If Trump can get a few other countries to sign up for squeezing China
and Russia, he could really put the screws really tight on the Chinese to get rid of Kimmy.
Right now, I'm not sure he could get this idea through Congress right now.
Too many scared shitless windbags too worried about being able to buy all
the cheap Chinky shit at Walmart.
BartSimpson @ Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:27 pm
martin14 martin14:
Really, more military exercises is the answer.
Actually they're not just exercises. They're an excuse to forward deploy assets and logistical support to a potential theatre of operations. Then after the exercise is over much of the supplies will remain in place and maintenance crews will remain in place to keep equipment ready for war.
Also, it sometimes happens that an exercise can deliberately pivot to hostile action.
For instance, you sortie the Japanese, South Korean, and US navies for an exercise in the Sea of Japan and at the same time you sortie eighty fighters and bombers for a bombing exercise like you've seen on TV.
Then when the ships are at sea and the planes are in the air they get their mission orders and the attack commences before the media knows about it.
And that's the real point of an exercise is to show your enemy that you're ready to go while rebuffing any diplomatic complaints by calling the whole thing a "routine exercise".
Strutz @ Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:45 pm
martin14 martin14:
Strutz, please, I'm begging you, stop reading the CBC.
It's just horse-hockey, and lots of idiocy.
Not much different from the idiocy from any other news source, especially the tabloids that some people like to upload stories from.
Isn't it all fake news anyway?
Strutz @ Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:48 pm
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
Then when the ships are at sea and the planes are in the air they get their mission orders and the attack commences before the media knows about it.
Ideal situation.
Of course, it would more ideal if military action was not required at all but NK obviously has no interest in playing fair.
BartSimpson @ Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:05 pm
I just don't see this ending well.
The gutless Quislings in the US State Department have played the appeasement game with the Norks for so long that the Norks now believe they can extort whatever they want from us. Trump is not Clinton, Bush, or Obama.
He's going to make them fire at us...and they will...and then it'll be time to put an end to the DPRK.
BartSimpson @ Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:32 pm
Ummmm....Japan is getting their plans put together to evacuate ~60,000 Japanese from South Korea.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Pyong ... eparations