MIT researchers predict ‘global economic collapse’ by 2030
andyt @ Thu Apr 05, 2012 12:36 am
A new study from researchers at Jay W. Forrester's institute at MIT says that the world could suffer from "global economic collapse" and "precipitous population decline" if people continue to consume the world's resources at the current pace.
Smithsonian Magazine writes that Australian physicist Graham Turner says "the world is on track for disaster" and that current evidence coincides with a famous, and in some quarters, infamous, academic report from 1972 entitled, "The Limits to Growth."
Produced for a group called The Club of Rome, the study's researchers created a computing model to forecast different scenarios based on the current models of population growth and global resource consumption. The study also took into account different levels of agricultural productivity, birth control and environmental protection efforts. Twelve million copies of the report were produced and distributed in 37 different languages.
Most of the computer scenarios found population and economic growth continuing at a steady rate until about 2030. But without "drastic measures for environmental protection," the scenarios predict the likelihood of a population and economic crash.
However, the study said "unlimited economic growth" is still possible if world governments enact policies and invest in green technologies that help limit the expansion of our ecological footprint.
The Smithsonian notes that several experts strongly objected to "The Limit of Growth's" findings, including the late Yale economist Henry Wallich, who for 12 years served as a governor of the Federal Research Board and was its chief international economics expert. At the time, Wallich said attempting to regulate economic growth would be equal to "consigning billions to permanent poverty."
Turner says that perhaps the most startling find from the study is that the results of the computer scenarios were nearly identical to those predicted in similar computer scenarios used as the basis for "The Limits to Growth."
"There is a very clear warning bell being rung here," Turner said. "We are not on a sustainable trajectory."
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow ... 52944.html
jeff744 @ Thu Apr 05, 2012 1:01 am
How many doomsayers have been proven wrong by now?
Khar @ Thu Apr 05, 2012 1:03 am
Sorry, the mention of a physicist talking about economics and environmentalism reminded me of this.
No, I do not have any real contributions to add to this thread.
(source)
Zipperfish @ Thu Apr 05, 2012 2:38 am
jeff744 jeff744:
How many doomsayers have been proven wrong by now?
Exactly all of them.
bootlegga @ Thu Apr 05, 2012 5:07 am
jeff744 jeff744:
How many doomsayers have been proven wrong by now?
Fortunately, all of them.
Unfortunately, only one has to be right for us all to be screwed.
eureka @ Thu Apr 05, 2012 7:58 am
Just a little thought will make clear that the study is spot on. I expect there to be the mother of all depressions within that time and I have been predicting that for several years.
Just as Khar's cartoons should give pause to think. The majority of the scientists who are in denial and spreading mischievous information are old and emeritus. Some who have never published about climate and some who have not published in decades - and a few who also shilled for the Tobacco industry.
Most economists also agree as the Stern Report proved. And that dealt only with the climate impacts.
DanSC @ Thu Apr 05, 2012 8:22 am
Everything will be destroyed unless we make their favorite policies law.
Kind of sounds like the 13th century Catholic Church or every aspirational despot ever.
FieryVulpine @ Thu Apr 05, 2012 8:26 am
I'm surprised the prediction isn't 2020, or 2015 for that matter.
eureka @ Thu Apr 05, 2012 8:35 am
FieryVulpine FieryVulpine:
I'm surprised the prediction isn't 2020, or 2015 for that matter.
Why?
raydan @ Thu Apr 05, 2012 9:22 am
FieryVulpine FieryVulpine:
I'm surprised the prediction isn't 2020, or 2015 for that matter.
One of the rules for making predictions.
Make sure it's far enough in the future so that...
...people will have forgotten you made it
...you'll be dead
DanSC @ Thu Apr 05, 2012 9:33 am
raydan raydan:
Make sure it's far enough in the future so that...
...people will have forgotten you made it
...you'll be dead
...people will have forgotten you made it
...you'll be dead
But if it's too far into the future, people won't panic and give you money to save them.
raydan @ Thu Apr 05, 2012 9:37 am
DanSC DanSC:
raydan raydan:
Make sure it's far enough in the future so that...
...people will have forgotten you made it
...you'll be dead
...people will have forgotten you made it
...you'll be dead
But if it's too far into the future, people won't panic and give you money to save them.
It's a fine line they navigate.
eureka @ Thu Apr 05, 2012 10:36 am
18 years is far into the future. The basis of Kondratievian cycles would have said that the two severe recessions in 1981 and 1991 were Depression. It could be said that we escaped that through our better knowledge of how to avoid the worst.
That same cycle theory would suggest that a Depression from a normal economic cycle will happen in 2030 t0 2040.
Add the new factors to that.
andyt @ Thu Apr 05, 2012 10:46 am
eureka eureka:
18 years is far into the future. The basis of Kondratievian cycles would have said that the two severe recessions in 1981 and 1991 were Depression. It could be said that we escaped that through our better knowledge of how to avoid the worst.
That same cycle theory would suggest that a Depression from a normal economic cycle will happen in 2030 t0 2040.
Add the new factors to that.
That same cycle theory would suggest that a Depression from a normal economic cycle will happen in 2030 t0 2040.
Add the new factors to that.
I think these guys are saying economic collapse because of ecosystem damage, not because of just cycles in capitalism.
I think we'll see more and more of this:
$1:
World food prices rise further, raising fears of unrest
(Reuters) - Global food prices rose in March for a third straight month with more hikes to come, the UN's food agency said on Thursday, adding to fears of hunger and a new wave of social unrest in poor countries.
Record high prices for staple foods last year were one of the main factors that contributed to the Arab Spring uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as bread riots in other parts of the world.
The cost of food has risen again this year after coming down from a February 2011 record peak.
The FAO index, which measures monthly price changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy, meat and sugar, averaged 215.9 points in March, up from a revised 215.4 points in February, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said.
Although below the February 2011 peak of 237.9, the index is still higher than during a food price crisis in 2007-08 that raised global alarm.
"The food crisis has not gone away since then," said Emilia Casella, spokeswoman for the U.N.'s World Food Programme. "Prices are a big concern and have remained a large reason why people are food insecure."
The FAO's senior economist and grain analyst Abdolreza Abbassian told Reuters there was scope for more price rises in the first half of this year, particularly for corn and soybeans, which could also drive up the price of wheat.
Higher food prices mean higher import bills for the poorest countries, which do not produce enough food domestically.
The net cereal import bill of the low-income food-deficit countries, known as LIFDCs, is expected to rise to a record $32.62 billion in 2011/12 from $32.28 billion in 2010/11 because of higher prices and lower domestic production, the FAO said in March. Poor countries face unrest if they cannot find the cash.
"Rising food prices are placing fresh pressure on policymakers globally at a time when many governments just have less money," said Larbi Sadiki, an expert in North African politics at Britain's Exeter University.
"In north Africa, food subsidies are a red line, especially in Tunisia and Egypt," he said. "Citizens can be expected to take to the streets to demand social justice."
U.S. soybean futures rose about 7 percent in March and gained about 17 percent in the first quarter of this year spurred by concerns about tight supplies as drought hit South America and smaller U.S. plantings.
The FAO's Cereal Price Index averaged 227 points in March, up 1 point from February, with maize prices showing gains, supported by low inventories and a strong soybean market, the FAO said. Its FAO Oils/Fats Price index rose to 245 points in March, up 6 points, or 2.5 percent, from February.
OIL DRIVER
High oil prices have fanned inflationary concerns since the start of this year. Consumer prices in the 17 nations sharing the euro were up 2.6 percent in March from a year ago, despite the region's stumbling economy.
"The food price index has an extremely high correlation to oil prices and with oil prices up it's going to be difficult for food prices not to follow suit," said Nick Higgins, commodity analyst at Rabobank International.
Energy prices affect the production of fertilizers as well as food distribution and farm machinery usage costs.
"We really saw the (food index) declines in Q4 2011 as being anomalous and related more to sell offs from the threats posed by the European macroeconomic situation rather than agricultural fundamentals," he said.
(Reuters) - Global food prices rose in March for a third straight month with more hikes to come, the UN's food agency said on Thursday, adding to fears of hunger and a new wave of social unrest in poor countries.
Record high prices for staple foods last year were one of the main factors that contributed to the Arab Spring uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as bread riots in other parts of the world.
The cost of food has risen again this year after coming down from a February 2011 record peak.
The FAO index, which measures monthly price changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy, meat and sugar, averaged 215.9 points in March, up from a revised 215.4 points in February, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said.
Although below the February 2011 peak of 237.9, the index is still higher than during a food price crisis in 2007-08 that raised global alarm.
"The food crisis has not gone away since then," said Emilia Casella, spokeswoman for the U.N.'s World Food Programme. "Prices are a big concern and have remained a large reason why people are food insecure."
The FAO's senior economist and grain analyst Abdolreza Abbassian told Reuters there was scope for more price rises in the first half of this year, particularly for corn and soybeans, which could also drive up the price of wheat.
Higher food prices mean higher import bills for the poorest countries, which do not produce enough food domestically.
The net cereal import bill of the low-income food-deficit countries, known as LIFDCs, is expected to rise to a record $32.62 billion in 2011/12 from $32.28 billion in 2010/11 because of higher prices and lower domestic production, the FAO said in March. Poor countries face unrest if they cannot find the cash.
"Rising food prices are placing fresh pressure on policymakers globally at a time when many governments just have less money," said Larbi Sadiki, an expert in North African politics at Britain's Exeter University.
"In north Africa, food subsidies are a red line, especially in Tunisia and Egypt," he said. "Citizens can be expected to take to the streets to demand social justice."
U.S. soybean futures rose about 7 percent in March and gained about 17 percent in the first quarter of this year spurred by concerns about tight supplies as drought hit South America and smaller U.S. plantings.
The FAO's Cereal Price Index averaged 227 points in March, up 1 point from February, with maize prices showing gains, supported by low inventories and a strong soybean market, the FAO said. Its FAO Oils/Fats Price index rose to 245 points in March, up 6 points, or 2.5 percent, from February.
OIL DRIVER
High oil prices have fanned inflationary concerns since the start of this year. Consumer prices in the 17 nations sharing the euro were up 2.6 percent in March from a year ago, despite the region's stumbling economy.
"The food price index has an extremely high correlation to oil prices and with oil prices up it's going to be difficult for food prices not to follow suit," said Nick Higgins, commodity analyst at Rabobank International.
Energy prices affect the production of fertilizers as well as food distribution and farm machinery usage costs.
"We really saw the (food index) declines in Q4 2011 as being anomalous and related more to sell offs from the threats posed by the European macroeconomic situation rather than agricultural fundamentals," he said.
QBC @ Thu Apr 05, 2012 11:05 am
Well, the thing is, history does have a very bad habit of repeating itself......