Canada Kicks Ass
Planet could be 'unrecognizable' by 2050, experts say

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sandorski @ Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:28 pm

bootlegga bootlegga:
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
sandorski sandorski:

Hell, it is close to totally different from the world I grew up in during the last half of the 1970's early 80's.


I so agree. It's inconceivable for some that there was a time before cell phones and computers.


Far be it from me to put words in Sandorski's mouth, but I think he was talking of the shift in Canada culturally, not technologically.


No, I was talking Technologically. I haven't noticed much Cultural shift at all.

   



bootlegga @ Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:28 pm

andyt andyt:
$1:
One of the most ringing endorsements of a high immigration rate came from the 1991 report by the Economic Council of Canada, the first detailed analysis of Canadian policy. It called for immigration to be increased to eventually bring Canada's population to 100 million. While it found that the economic benefits to Canada of immigration were fairly small, the benefits to the newcomers themselves were extremely large. The report concluded that "it would be hard not to recommend an increase when immigrants can gain so much and Canadians not only do not lose but actually make slight economic gains."[17][18] In 2005 a report by the Royal Bank of Canada called for boosting Canada's immigration rate by 30% to 400,000 per year to ensure continued economic growth.[19]
(
^ a b Economic Council of Canada (1991), Economic and Social Impacts of Immigration (Ottawa: Supply and Services Canada)
^ Hogben, David. "Wanted: 100 million people to make Canada efficient." The Vancouver Sun. Vancouver, B.C.: Feb 21, 1991. pg. E.1
^ Keung, Nicholas. "Boost immigration, bank's report says; Calls for 400,000 people a year to maintain growth Critics warn more resources needed to handle numbers." Toronto Star. Toronto, Ont.: Oct 20, 2005. pg. A.23)


See, was that so hard?

I read that on Wikipedia too - I wonder if they still believe that Canada should reach for 100 million. I wish the ECoC report was available online, but I haven't been able to locate it.

BTW, Keung's call for a bump to 400,000 annually still wouldn't get us to anywhere near 100 million by 2050 (it would add 16 million in the next 40 years).

   



bootlegga @ Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:31 pm

sandorski sandorski:
bootlegga bootlegga:
BartSimpson BartSimpson:

sandorski said;

Hell, it is close to totally different from the world I grew up in during the last half of the 1970's early 80's.

I so agree. It's inconceivable for some that there was a time before cell phones and computers.


Far be it from me to put words in Sandorski's mouth, but I think he was talking of the shift in Canada culturally, not technologically.


No, I was talking Technologically. I haven't noticed much Cultural shift at all.


My bad. :oops:

From my point of view, I have noticed a huge cultural shift since I grew up in the 70s/80s. Edmonton went from being predominantly white to being a real cultural mosaic.

   



sandorski @ Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:35 pm

bootlegga bootlegga:
sandorski sandorski:
bootlegga bootlegga:

Far be it from me to put words in Sandorski's mouth, but I think he was talking of the shift in Canada culturally, not technologically.


No, I was talking Technologically. I haven't noticed much Cultural shift at all.


My bad. :oops:

From my point of view, I have noticed a huge cultural shift since I grew up in the 70s/80s. Edmonton went from being predominantly white to being a real cultural mosaic.


There is more diversity, but on the whole I notice very little difference in the underlying Culture.

   



andyt @ Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:37 pm

bootlegga bootlegga:
See, was that so hard?

I read that on Wikipedia too - I wonder if they still believe that Canada should reach for 100 million. I wish the ECoC report was available online, but I haven't been able to locate it.

BTW, Keung's call for a bump to 400,000 annually still wouldn't get us to anywhere near 100 million by 2050 (it would add 16 million in the next 40 years).


Read all the posts I made. The GDP benefit to Canada from immigration is minuscule, but there is a large shift in wealth from Canadians to immigrants. Raising the total GDP of a country doesn't help if the GDP per capita goes down. And, those studies ignore all the costs of immigration like higher housing prices (raises GDP but does nothing for people) transportation costs, garbage revmoval, and environmental degradation.

Let em all move to Edmonton and you won't hear another peep out of me. Just stop them from moving to Metro Vancouver.

   



bootlegga @ Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:57 pm

andyt andyt:
bootlegga bootlegga:
See, was that so hard?

I read that on Wikipedia too - I wonder if they still believe that Canada should reach for 100 million. I wish the ECoC report was available online, but I haven't been able to locate it.

BTW, Keung's call for a bump to 400,000 annually still wouldn't get us to anywhere near 100 million by 2050 (it would add 16 million in the next 40 years).


Read all the posts I made. The GDP benefit to Canada from immigration is minuscule, but there is a large shift in wealth from Canadians to immigrants. Raising the total GDP of a country doesn't help if the GDP per capita goes down. And, those studies ignore all the costs of immigration like higher housing prices (raises GDP but does nothing for people) transportation costs, garbage revmoval, and environmental degradation.

Let em all move to Edmonton and you won't hear another peep out of me. Just stop them from moving to Metro Vancouver.


Higher housing costs don't benefit people?

Apparently you're not a realtor or in construction or in forestry. If you were, you'd know that it most definitely benefits people, by creating jobs and increasing wealth. Increased prices creates wealth for realtors and developers and spurs construction. Increased construction creates more jobs in raw materials industries too (gotta get wood and concrete from somewhere to build those condos and apartment buildings). It also generates wealth in the financial sector (creating jobs for mortgage specialists at banks), and so on.

Think about it.

If Vancouver increases by 10,000 per year (say without any immigration, just the births of residents and migration from other parts of Canada), maybe 3000 new apartments/condos/homes are needed each year. But if another 50,000 people (on top of the 10,000 I already theorized) move to the city every year (20% of current immigration), you need far more than 3000 built - I'd guess at least five times that (15,000). Maybe even more because most immigrants don't buy a house in the first year - they rent for a few years until they have stable jobs and a downpayment. So that increase in construction fuels a mini-boom in a varity of sectors, creating employment and generating wealth (jobs) for people it wouldn't have without immigration. And given that cities collect property taxes on all those new buildings, they should be able to maintain the level of service they did prior to immigration starting, assuming their formula for property taxes was viable beforehand.

That all flows back to Khar's assertion that immigration benefits Canada in the long term, but is expensive in the short term.

I'll agree that higher housing costs don't benefit EVERYONE, but it definitely benefits some people.

   



andyt @ Tue Feb 22, 2011 2:02 pm

How do higher housing costs benefit forestry? Higher housing costs are a disincentive to buy/build, not an incentive. People are wringing their hands about the high cost of housing. But what really makes it suck is when the bubble collapses (ring a bell) and people are left broke.

So far nothing I've read says there is any kind of large benefit to Canada, short or long term. The only ones who have a clear benefit are the immigrants themselves. And we see the many negatives to Canadians as a result. I'd rather leave the immigrants home and send them some foreign aid or something. Or, like I say, have them all move to Edmonton and leave Vancouver alone for a while.

   



Khar @ Tue Feb 22, 2011 2:43 pm

Zipperfish Zipperfish:
Khar Khar:
the world's oceans are not dying off


Dying off may be an overstatement, but there's a pretty legitimate case for concern. We don't know much about ocean life and what we do know is not that heartening We know that many of the world's great fisheries are in decline. And here in Canada we've seen the most concerte example of that with the collapse of the East Coast (North Atlantic) cod fishery. This is worrying because it was foretold, and nothing beyond scribbling in the margins was done. When the fishery did collpase, it collapsed suddenly and--some twenty years later--the fishery shows little sign of recovery.

The fact that the world's oceans are virtually unregulated and unstudied doesn't bode well either.

In my opinion, this will soon eclipse climate change as the most serious environetnal isssue facing humanity, because it's impact will be much more immediate than climate change.


I agree with you and Thanos 100% here. According to that book, our oceans should have already been dying off, with symptoms ranging from mass fish deaths leading to an evacuation of coastlines, and so on. In fact, these evacuations should have ended over a decade ago, according to the predictions.

But what you two said above is definitely something which I should have remembered instead of using the line I did, and you are both correct in my books. There's a lot of ongoing issues which I feel either compete with or eclipse global warming in concern, and the current state of our oceans is one of them.

andyt andyt:
bootlegga bootlegga:
Do you have proof of this nebulous claim that "if the pro immigration crowd gets its way, and Canada does have 100 million people living in it" or are you just scare mongering.

I've never seen anyone advocate multiplying current immigration rates by six times, which is what we'd need to, to get to that 100 million. After all, Canada currently has 35 million and we'd need 65 million in 40 years - or a little over 1.5 million immigrants per year.

My bet is on the scare mongering.

But that's par for the course with you when it comes to discussing immigration.


$1:
University of Toronto scholar Irvin Studin has a theory for Canada, increase Canada's population to 100 million people, thus Canada would be a superpower not to be trifled with on the international stage.

Continue reading at NowPublic.com: Push Canadian population to 100 million, scholar argues | NowPublic News Coverage http://www.nowpublic.com/environment/pu ... z1EfkEdZCo


$1:
"One estimate is that by the year 2050, Canada's population would have to be 165.4 million to meet this objective [reverse the aging trend] and that the intake of immigrants that year alone would be 7 million. The basic reasons for this outcome are that immigrants age at the same pace as everyone else and, like other Canadians, are eligible to receive social benefits in retirement," Grubel said.


http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Fraser-Institute-Mass-Immigration-Affecting-Well-Being-All-Canadians-Immigration-Policies-1052341.htm


As I said, this is a fringe ideal. One economist stating a theory (and not a theory in the scientific term life evolution, an idea would be it's equivalent) does not mean it's going to get wide spread support, especially since two of the loudest pro-immigrant voices so far in these discussions (myself and bootlegga) do not support it, nor do others who have spoken up in support like EyeBrock.

Likewise, Grubel specializes in short term concerns and I have already responded to this in other threads. Yes, we would need a lot of people (although Grubel overstates comparable literature I provided yourself by over 60 million people) to fix some problems, but no economists are making the assumptions which Grubel is, or forecasts as radical as he and other members of his Institute are (few of whom are economists). As also mentioned, Grubel is a member of the Fraser Institute and should be considered a questionable source for the reasons I have provided you in other threads (I will link anyone who would like me to).

Actually, these sources not only talk about why Grubel is incorrect, but also go on to support immigration. Perhaps the reason why you continue to use a faulty source and a theory which does not fit into actual viable academic research while stating that you've read nothing about the economic benefits of Canada is because you are choosing not to read what has been stated here and in other threads?

I have already talked about these sources in other threads you have used. The sources you attempted to use on bootslegga are not supported by any actual literature. I in turn have provided you with a plethora of positives for immigration in my opening post in another thread. I have also stated (with support) other sources which discredit what Grubel has stated already, up to an including actual estimates, looks at how aging can be handled partially by immigration and so forth.

I can link you to these sources again. You demanded I give you quotes from them and I did, so it will not be hard for my to find them, quote them, reference them, whatever you would like, to show the benefits of immigration. Then you use quotes from Wikipedia without checking to see what time frame we are talking about, and it's certainly not by 2050, as you have implied. They do want us to increase immigration.

Do they want it by 2050? No. Do they want it to be in the 7 digits a year? No. Are they accredited experts rather than special interests groups who's sites show a remarkable lack of accreditation and information about their sources? Hell yes. The reason why you've not read anything is because you've selectively ignored the sources which have so far proven those special interests sites are incorrect.

Much like Bruce is doing by selectively noticing that everyone bashing Malthusian here is not saying there is no problem in India, but saying why there is a problem is India -- inability to effectively distribute food. He ignores the impact of the Green Revolution, or the general improvement and convergence of many nations towards OECD levels, because this doesn't fit in line with "Malthus is right."

Malthus is wrong. You do not have the expertise, nor do your sources have to expertise, to manage to say otherwise when actual evidence, data, information, trends and experts have said, displayed, or supported otherwise.

   



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