How recent? The last I heard was the <a href="http://www.vivelecanada.ca/article.php/200506091201561">Decima poll</a>.<br /> <br />

   

Léger Marketing<br /> April 11, <br /> <br /> Canada:<br /> 34% Conservatives<br /> 31% Liberals<br /> 18% NDP<br /> 13% Bloc Québécois<br /> <br /> Quebec:<br /> 53% Bloc<br /> 20% Liberals<br /> 17% Conservatives<br /> <br /> http://www2.canoe.com/infos/quebeccanada/archives/2005/04/20050413-054205.html

   

[QUOTE BY= sthompson] How recent? The last I heard was the <a href="http://www.vivelecanada.ca/article.php/200506091201561">Decima poll</a>.<br /> <br /> [/QUOTE]<br /> <br /> Thanks for the reply. I haven't been on the internet in like 3 weeks some I'm trying to catch up with the news. It seems as though Belinda Stronach's move really hurt the conservatives!

   

Well, those other poll results are from back in April making it pretty outdated at this point. <br /> <br /> The Decima poll from June 2-5 had numbers across Canada as follows: "Liberals with 37 per cent support and the Tories, with 23 per cent, in a virtual dead heat with the NDP, who are at 21 per cent."<br /> <br /> However I don't know if it looked specifically at Quebec. The articles I saw mainly focused on Ontario when singling out a province, because the NDP was beating out the Cons there with certain groups.<br /> <br /> Edited to add: No prob Dino! I think grewal and Stronach had a little effect, but mainly I think it was Harper pushing so hard for the election. Really came across as self-interest.<br /> <br /> For a good discussion of the numbers in that poll see <a href="http://www.rabble.ca/babble/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic&f=35&t=000754">Cons at 23% in virtual tie with NDP - Decima</a>

   

<br /> <br /> 06/11 <br /> <br /> 34% Liberals<br /> 26% Conservatives<br /> 19% NDP<br /> 13% Bloc<br /> 9% Green<br /> <br /> <br /> http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/

   

Both polls are pretty inadequate, one poll talked to only 1000 people, while the other only had 1500 yet claims to have only a 2.5% margin of error. I'd really have to say that there's more like a 99.9999% possibility of error.

   

This latest poll and the failed vote are perhaps upsetting the conservative crowd. I just came from the FD site and they have been talking about "revolution", seriously (no, not revelation). Maybe Mr Harper will cross the floor too, they seem pretty upset. <img align=absmiddle src='images/smilies/biggrin.gif' alt='Big Grin'> <br /> This bodes well for the NDP, though they will soon experience the Liberal version of shock and awe closer to an election, if their numbers hold. If I were Mr Layton my platform would be a guarantee of public and private pension plans(reinsurance on risk) and a rebuilding of Medicare as the majority of baby-boomers would like that security/stability in troubling times. I would also suggest paying for it from oil and gas royalties as Alberta is a write off for them anyway. Any thoughts on the public's mood this year? Do you think separatism is near the top for worries?

   

I doubt there's much that has occurred that will make people seriously rethink their voting patterns. I'll repeat myself here and say that the only reason I can see people changing a conservative vote is if they didn't think conservatives would do as well as they did last time, which is pretty iffy since polls were showing a conservative majority.<br /> <br /> However the scandals plaguing the liberal party mean that at least some will jump ship. This could very well mean a conservative minority government, which many may not find as objectionable as a majority. Without PR though there is no way to 'vote strategically' unless you live in Quebec. I don't think the Quebec issue will affect voting patterns outside Quebec as most canadians realize there is little that can be done. None of the parties really tackled the issue in the last election, that will probably continue with lots of claims of 'doing whats best for canadians'. <br /> <br /> Again, without PR I don't see the NDP gaining that much. Even the most jaded political observer knows they don't really stand a chance, although who knows?<br /> <br /> If there was actually a conservative minority perhaps we'd see some movement on the PR issue, but that's not certain. I really don't expect people would change that much over last election, and the only prediction I would make is that voter turnout will drop once again unless some really juicy bits of corruption come out of the Gomery commission. Nothing like political largesse to motivate people to get them out of there, the only political luxury canadians have.

   

The STV vote may have been a fluke here in B.C. as the people I spoke to didn't know much about how it would work in practise yet voted all the same,and I was one of them damn it. We have a new free online newspaper here as a counter to the canwest press and it has a few articles on STV. Perhaps a separatist vote in Quebec is based upon the same rule though they've had a few more kicks at the cat than we have with STV.