Hurricane forecast misses the mark....big time.
ShepherdsDog @ Thu Oct 24, 2013 6:47 am
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scot ... -1.2223427
W
$1:
ith a little over a month left in the North Atlantic hurricane season, it's now clear that the long-range U.S. forecasts issued in the spring — all calling for a high level of storm activity — weren't even close.
In May, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted unusually warm ocean temperatures would spawn between seven and 11 hurricanes, and that three to six could become major hurricanes churning out winds in excess of 178 kilometres an hour.
So far this year, there have been only two hurricanes — Ingrid and Humberto in early September — both of which were relatively weak storms, rated at Category 1 on a scale that reaches up to 5. Ingrid, however, brought heavy rain to parts of Mexico, where flooding and landslides claimed dozens of lives.
In May, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted unusually warm ocean temperatures would spawn between seven and 11 hurricanes, and that three to six could become major hurricanes churning out winds in excess of 178 kilometres an hour.
So far this year, there have been only two hurricanes — Ingrid and Humberto in early September — both of which were relatively weak storms, rated at Category 1 on a scale that reaches up to 5. Ingrid, however, brought heavy rain to parts of Mexico, where flooding and landslides claimed dozens of lives.
Goes to show you how unreliable models really are.
DrCaleb @ Thu Oct 24, 2013 7:20 am
ShepherdsDog ShepherdsDog:
Goes to show you how unreliable models really are.
Actually, it demonstrates how important reliable data is to get accurate predictions out of computer models.
$1:
WASHINGTON — The United States is facing a year or more without crucial satellites that provide invaluable data for predicting storm tracks, a result of years of mismanagement, lack of financing and delays in launching replacements, according to several recent official reviews.
The looming gap in satellite coverage, which some experts view as almost certain within the next few years, could result in shaky forecasts about storms like Hurricane Sandy, which is expected to hit the East Coast early next week.
The looming gap in satellite coverage, which some experts view as almost certain within the next few years, could result in shaky forecasts about storms like Hurricane Sandy, which is expected to hit the East Coast early next week.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/us/dy ... .html?_r=0
$1:
Government officials are forecasting a turbulent future for the nation's weather satellite program.
Federal budget cuts are threatening to leave the U.S. without some critical satellites, the officials say, and that could mean less accurate warnings about events like tornadoes and blizzards. In particular, officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are concerned about satellites that orbit over the earth's poles rather than remaining over a fixed spot along the equator.
These satellites are "the backbone" of any forecast beyond a couple of days, says Kathryn Sullivan, assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction, and NOAA's deputy administrator.
It was data from polar satellites that alerted forecasters to the risk of tornadoes in Alabama and Mississippi back in April, Sullivan says. "With the polar satellites currently in place we were able to give those communities five days' heads up," she says.
But that level of precision could diminish in the next few years, Sullivan says.
Federal budget cuts are threatening to leave the U.S. without some critical satellites, the officials say, and that could mean less accurate warnings about events like tornadoes and blizzards. In particular, officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are concerned about satellites that orbit over the earth's poles rather than remaining over a fixed spot along the equator.
These satellites are "the backbone" of any forecast beyond a couple of days, says Kathryn Sullivan, assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction, and NOAA's deputy administrator.
It was data from polar satellites that alerted forecasters to the risk of tornadoes in Alabama and Mississippi back in April, Sullivan says. "With the polar satellites currently in place we were able to give those communities five days' heads up," she says.
But that level of precision could diminish in the next few years, Sullivan says.
http://www.npr.org/2011/06/17/137251742 ... se-funding
You'll recall this year's Nobel Prize in Chemistry went to people who developed computer models of chemical reactions, because of their accuracy.
MeganC @ Thu Oct 24, 2013 9:31 am
They wanted to scare people and they did. Mission accomplished. 
Zipperfish @ Thu Oct 24, 2013 9:57 am
ShepherdsDog ShepherdsDog:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/atlantic-hurricane-season-predictions-fall-flat-1.2223427
Goes to show you how unreliable models really are.
$1:
With a little over a month left in the North Atlantic hurricane season, it's now clear that the long-range U.S. forecasts issued in the spring — all calling for a high level of storm activity — weren't even close.
In May, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted unusually warm ocean temperatures would spawn between seven and 11 hurricanes, and that three to six could become major hurricanes churning out winds in excess of 178 kilometres an hour.
So far this year, there have been only two hurricanes — Ingrid and Humberto in early September — both of which were relatively weak storms, rated at Category 1 on a scale that reaches up to 5. Ingrid, however, brought heavy rain to parts of Mexico, where flooding and landslides claimed dozens of lives.
In May, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted unusually warm ocean temperatures would spawn between seven and 11 hurricanes, and that three to six could become major hurricanes churning out winds in excess of 178 kilometres an hour.
So far this year, there have been only two hurricanes — Ingrid and Humberto in early September — both of which were relatively weak storms, rated at Category 1 on a scale that reaches up to 5. Ingrid, however, brought heavy rain to parts of Mexico, where flooding and landslides claimed dozens of lives.
Goes to show you how unreliable models really are.
Baloney. Hurricane forecasting--due to an immense amount of research adn development of monitoring and models--probably saves thousands of lives every year. There was a time when you had no warning at all of a hurricane. Take for example the storm surge that hit Galveston Texas killing 1800 people.
A state of emergency and evacuations were underway two days before Hurricane Katrina hit. It still killed over 1800. Imagine if teh models were no good and no one got advance notice.
You just can't compete with the right-wing diatribes these days. Just reading about how they can't get people to take vaccines anymore, because idiots are going on about how they cause autism. Or yahoos goign on about cell phnoes and cancer, or living underneath power lines (like we don't already live on a big fucking magnet).
The problem is idiots who think that if they can provide a simple incidence of a correlation (my neighbour uses a cell phonme and got brain cancer) that's all the proof they need.
Lemmy @ Thu Oct 24, 2013 10:19 am
Hurricane Irene pretty much leveled Mrs. Lemmy's hometown. Fortunately, the town was evacuated in 2011. A storm like Irene would have killed thousands had it happened without modern hurricane forecasting.
N_Fiddledog @ Thu Oct 24, 2013 10:26 am
OK, so one says the current lack of hurricane forecasting competence is owed to the inadequacy of modeling. Another says it's a result of unreliable data.
I'd like to add a possibility.
Hurricane forecasting in the US used to be famous for its competence. This was owed largely to this obsessive, loud-mouthed professor who was famous for stuff like flying into the hurricane in old propeller aircraft to get data. His name was Bill Gray.
Bill Gray's problem from the establishment point of view was two fold. He had a big mouth, and he was a Global Warming Skeptic. He had to go of course. He was replaced with more politically correct...let's call them scientists.
As a result of all this we now have hurricane forecasts as fanciful as the infamous seasonal weather forecasts in the UK from the Met. And your what? Surprised?
jj2424 @ Thu Oct 24, 2013 10:31 am
Lemmy Lemmy:
R=UP
Hurricane Irene pretty much leveled Mrs. Lemmy's hometown. Fortunately, the town was evacuated in 2011. A storm like Irene would have killed thousands had it happened without modern hurricane forecasting.
Hurricane Irene pretty much leveled Mrs. Lemmy's hometown. Fortunately, the town was evacuated in 2011. A storm like Irene would have killed thousands had it happened without modern hurricane forecasting.
hurricane forecasting? oh you mean radar!
Can you imagine how many storms went by unnoticed 100 years ago but now that we can see the ones that don't even hit land the amount of storms are 'increasing"!
more poppycock.
ShepherdsDog @ Thu Oct 24, 2013 10:32 am
There's a big difference over charting how a an already existing trough, depression or front is going to behave over a few days, as opposed to predicting the frequency and intensity of storm formations, weeks and months into the future. Sorry, you may buy into consciencus as gospel.
Zipperfish @ Thu Oct 24, 2013 10:40 am
jj2424 jj2424:
hurricane forecasting? oh you mean radar!
Can you imagine how many storms went by unnoticed 100 years ago but now that we can see the ones that don't even hit land the amount of storms are 'increasing"!
more poppycock.
Can you imagine how many storms went by unnoticed 100 years ago but now that we can see the ones that don't even hit land the amount of storms are 'increasing"!
more poppycock.
There's no such thing as radar, jj. You've fallen victim to these UN/World government types telling you that there are these invisible rays out there that can magically see things far away. If you look into it, you'll find that radar is scientifically impossible according this guy's blog I read who used a lot of big words. More and more prominent scientists are speaking out against the so-called "radar consensus." The very fact that the government states that radar exists is proof that there is no such thing.
fifeboy @ Thu Oct 24, 2013 10:49 am
N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:
OK, so one says the current lack of hurricane forecasting competence is owed to the inadequacy of modeling. Another says it's a result of unreliable data.
I'd like to add a possibility.
Hurricane forecasting in the US used to be famous for its competence. This was owed largely to this obsessive, loud-mouthed professor who was famous for stuff like flying into the hurricane in old propeller aircraft to get data. His name was Bill Gray.
Bill Gray's problem from the establishment point of view was two fold. He had a big mouth, and he was a Global Warming Skeptic. He had to go of course. He was replaced with more politically correct...let's call them scientists.
As a result of all this we now have hurricane forecasts as fanciful as the infamous seasonal weather forecasts in the UK from the Met. And your what? Surprised?
I'd like to add a possibility.
Hurricane forecasting in the US used to be famous for its competence. This was owed largely to this obsessive, loud-mouthed professor who was famous for stuff like flying into the hurricane in old propeller aircraft to get data. His name was Bill Gray.
Bill Gray's problem from the establishment point of view was two fold. He had a big mouth, and he was a Global Warming Skeptic. He had to go of course. He was replaced with more politically correct...let's call them scientists.
As a result of all this we now have hurricane forecasts as fanciful as the infamous seasonal weather forecasts in the UK from the Met. And your what? Surprised?
OK, to start, let me say I know absolutely nothing about atmospheric science. But I was curious about Bill Gray, so I Googled his name and came up with this.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2013/aug2013/aug2013.pdf
And, I did not read the whole thing as I am too lazy and wouldn't understand it anyway, but this stuck out for me:
$1:
Summary
An analysis of a variety of different atmosphere and ocean measurements
(through July) which are known to have long-period statistical relationships with the
upcoming season's Atlantic tropical cyclone activity indicate that 2013 should be a
relatively active season. Cool neutral ENSO conditions should generally provide
favorable upper-level winds across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. Two early
season MDR storms are also indicative that the season should be quite active. The only
significant negative factor at this point is the anomalous cooling that has occurred in the
eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic over the past two months. However, this cooling
has abated in recent weeks.
An analysis of a variety of different atmosphere and ocean measurements
(through July) which are known to have long-period statistical relationships with the
upcoming season's Atlantic tropical cyclone activity indicate that 2013 should be a
relatively active season. Cool neutral ENSO conditions should generally provide
favorable upper-level winds across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. Two early
season MDR storms are also indicative that the season should be quite active. The only
significant negative factor at this point is the anomalous cooling that has occurred in the
eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic over the past two months. However, this cooling
has abated in recent weeks.
Is this another Bill Gray or am I misreading his findings?
N_Fiddledog @ Thu Oct 24, 2013 11:55 am
It's tricky Fifeboy.
It began like this...
$1:
By pioneering the science of seasonal hurricane forecasting, William Gray turned a university far from the stormy seas into a hurricane research mecca.
But last year, the long-term relationship between Gray and Colorado State University, where he has worked for nearly half a century, nearly unraveled in an episode that highlights the politically charged atmosphere that surrounds the global warming debate.
University officials told Gray that handling media inquiries related to his forecasting required too much time and detracted from efforts to promote other professors' work.
But last year, the long-term relationship between Gray and Colorado State University, where he has worked for nearly half a century, nearly unraveled in an episode that highlights the politically charged atmosphere that surrounds the global warming debate.
University officials told Gray that handling media inquiries related to his forecasting required too much time and detracted from efforts to promote other professors' work.
http://www.chron.com/news/nation-world/ ... 754634.php
The last we heard of the dispute it was like this...
$1:
CSU will continue to publicize Gray's yearly forecasts as long as they are co-authored by Klotzbach, officials told the Chronicle last week, but will end their support if Klotzbach, who recently earned his doctorate, moves to another institution.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/2008/04/29 ... ing-views/
OK so from there what I offer are personal impressions, and another theory to add to the list.
My impressions are (based on just being interested in the topic, so stuff I read here and there) Gray's rep as a forecaster was pretty good. He's a disagreeable old cuss of a global warming skeptic, but was not generally critiqued as a forecaster.
There was a confrontation with his employer - Colorado State University. At the end of it a new prof who had been brought up through the system was brought in to babysit Gray. Since that time I haven't heard much from Bill Gray - which is odd because he's a big mouth - but I have heard forecasts of increasing hurricanes.
N_Fiddledog @ Thu Oct 24, 2013 12:07 pm
To be honest though, and seeing as we're talking about impressions, I'm not positive mine are that good, because I'm not sure the forecasts have been that bad.
I think what happens is you're dealing with a complex jumble of predictions - landfalls versus the ones that don't hit land, Pacific versus Atlantic, extreme versus tropical storms, and the media lasoos a hysterical prediction out of that mess to hype you into worrying about catastrophe.
I think I maybe read somewhere there's been some accuracy in some forecasts. I think it was maybe last year's.
fifeboy @ Thu Oct 24, 2013 12:08 pm
Ok, although I still don't really understand, thanks for the info.
Jabberwalker @ Thu Oct 24, 2013 6:27 pm
ShepherdsDog ShepherdsDog:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/atlantic-hurricane-season-predictions-fall-flat-1.2223427
W
Goes to show you how unreliable models really are.
W
$1:
ith a little over a month left in the North Atlantic hurricane season, it's now clear that the long-range U.S. forecasts issued in the spring — all calling for a high level of storm activity — weren't even close.
In May, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted unusually warm ocean temperatures would spawn between seven and 11 hurricanes, and that three to six could become major hurricanes churning out winds in excess of 178 kilometres an hour.
So far this year, there have been only two hurricanes — Ingrid and Humberto in early September — both of which were relatively weak storms, rated at Category 1 on a scale that reaches up to 5. Ingrid, however, brought heavy rain to parts of Mexico, where flooding and landslides claimed dozens of lives.
In May, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted unusually warm ocean temperatures would spawn between seven and 11 hurricanes, and that three to six could become major hurricanes churning out winds in excess of 178 kilometres an hour.
So far this year, there have been only two hurricanes — Ingrid and Humberto in early September — both of which were relatively weak storms, rated at Category 1 on a scale that reaches up to 5. Ingrid, however, brought heavy rain to parts of Mexico, where flooding and landslides claimed dozens of lives.
Goes to show you how unreliable models really are.
So, when did weather forecasting suddenly become reliable, anyway.
It's all chaos, man ... butterflies farting in the Amazon, not a predictable "science".
Thanos @ Thu Oct 24, 2013 7:00 pm
The Weather Apocalypse is as important to the environmental puritans as the Rapture is to the hardcore evangelicals and fundies. And the former is about as likely to happen as the latter.