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... during the War, actually ...

The St. Roch ... you can tour it in Vancouver

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Roch_(ship)

   

True. It's been observed many times that so far not one computerized weather or climate model has been able to extrapolate the known past based upon current data.

The most accurate weather models can predict the weather in general terms out to maybe seven days. The climate models that have repeatedly predicted gloom and doom have repeatedly failed given that the Arctic was not ice free in 2010, that snow fell in the UK in 2010, and that global sea levels have not risen by two feet since 1998 as was once predicted.

   

The Thule came over from Siberia in their Walrus skin boats about 1000 years ago. We think that, because that's when the Dorset people started dissappearing.

But they could pick up their boats and portage. The Passage has it's good years, and it's bad. It all depends on if the ice breaks up around the Queen E islands and moves south to block the channel.

   

You cannot put a spoon into coffee and unstir the cream.

   

Not where I live. (Their 3 day forecasts aren't always bad though).

   

Nor can you predict what time I'll be adding cream to my coffee any time in the year 2100.

   

But that isn't a failure of the weather models. It's a function of input data, and weather, and chaotic models in general, only run in a single time direction for a very good reason. Just like cream in the coffee.

If we monitored your coffee cup long enough, we could build a statisical probability of when you put cream in your coffee. The longer the model runs into the future, the less accurate it becomes because it depends on many factors. Like when you make the coffee. But we could never predict when you put cream in your coffee last week, because we'd never know when you made the coffee.

Weather models are exactly the same. High pressure and low pressure systems create the weather, and we can predict when they will move and to some degree what weather they will produce a certain amount in the future. But predictions become less accurate the further ahead in time they predict, because there are too many unknowns. Pressure systems blend together to form other pressure systems, pull the jet stream around to draw other pressure systems in or push them around, and the chaos isn't predictable into the far future. If we know enough about the specifics, even about terrain that affects the weather, the models become more accurate.

That is why the models can't be run in the reverse time direction, because a pressure system doesn't spontaneously generate a high and low pressure system that pushes the jet stream around to push systems in unpredictable ways. Any more than putting the spoon in the coffee at the right time will draw all the cream back on to the spoon.

And the worst part is that the US has defunded a number of weather sattelites that are becomeing obsolete, so weather prediction will become less accurate in the short term too.

   

'Defunded' isn't exactly right. The program to replace those birds was severely impacted by political cronyism at the Department of Commerce and by political correctness at NASA which insisted that key components of the birds be produced by women-owned or minority-owned tech firms who were not capable of delivering on their contract obligations.

The waste was so bad that even Eric Holder's Department of Justice has gotten involved and there may actually be some criminal prosecutions coming out of the mess.

In the meantime the possible launch dates for the replacement satellites have been pushed back from 2017 to 2020 due to that the whole bidding process for building them has to be run all over again. But before they can do that they have to first get rid of the regulations that require the work to go to firms that can't possibly do the work.

tl;dr = They need to find a way to hire white guys to do the work.

   

Or you can read about it's exploits right here....

First ship to circumnavigate North America

   

I don't think they need to specify who does the work. They just need the work done; on time and within budget. Under budget would be better. If Indian Women can do it, fine. Just get it done!

   

Well models are actually the basis of science. So the far right calling science "bullshit." No surprise there.

And if you care to place a bet, Bart, we'll see if you can back up your rhetoric. I'll lay $100 that, in Vancouver, the average temperature over the month in July 2014 will be warmer than the average temperature in December 2013.

I'll give you 2 to 1 odds.

According to you, that should be an easy bet, as you've stated that weather beyond 7 days can't be predicted, and this is well beyond 7 days.

And incidentally, if you're looking at a weather forecast I don't trust them after 2, maybe 3 days. Most meteorologists will tell you that anything after 5 days isn't much better than a coin toss.

   

I'll go you one further.

I'll wager $100 that July 2014 in Vancouver will be cooler than July 2013.

You may wager that it will be warmer.

And if the temperatures are +/- less than 1° C different then we both lose and will donate our respective $100 to CKA.

Is it a bet?

   

North West Passage blocked with ice - yachts caught
Shit not again!

   

That's just more BS.

The scientific method is the basis of actual science. It was around long before that GIGO (garbage in/garbage out), BS put together by nintendo nerd, Progs with their computer games. Science-y is not science.

   

Fail.

   

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