Oops -- The Climate Scammers Lose
BartSimpson @ Tue Oct 06, 2015 9:15 am
Oops -- The Climate Scammers Lose
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=230761
Note: Just for clarity sake I am posting the following as it was posted - and I am not 'quoting' the main article.
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Now about those so-called "scientists" that want those who do not believe the "climate narrative" prosecuted -- can we go after them under 42 USC 1983 and 18 USC 242 for attempting to deprive persons of their rights under color of law?
$1:
A MATHEMATICAL discovery by Perth-based electrical engineer Dr David Evans may change everything about the climate debate, on the eve of the UN climate change conference in Paris next month.
A former climate modeller for the Government’s Australian Greenhouse Office, with six degrees in applied mathematics, Dr Evans has unpacked the architecture of the basic climate model which underpins all climate science.
He has found that, while the underlying physics of the model is correct, it had been applied incorrectly.
He has fixed two errors and the new corrected model finds the climate’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide (CO2) is much lower than was thought.
It turns out the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has over-estimated future global warming by as much as 10 times, he says.
A former climate modeller for the Government’s Australian Greenhouse Office, with six degrees in applied mathematics, Dr Evans has unpacked the architecture of the basic climate model which underpins all climate science.
He has found that, while the underlying physics of the model is correct, it had been applied incorrectly.
He has fixed two errors and the new corrected model finds the climate’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide (CO2) is much lower than was thought.
It turns out the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has over-estimated future global warming by as much as 10 times, he says.
Do you know why science requires (1) the publication of your raw data, (2) the publication of all the manipulations, constants, formulas and other transformations you do to your data, (3) the publication of your methods (that is, your means of collection of data, how you decided what data to collect, etc) and your analytical process?
It's for exactly this reason -- and what's better when the IPCC models are re-run with this clear error repaired the lack of correlation with the prediction and actual results disappears.
And guess what: Global warming now looks to be caused by.... exactly what I have been saying was the cause.
$1:
So, the new improved climate model shows CO2 is not the culprit in recent global warming. But what is?
Dr Evans has a theory: solar activity. What he calls “albedo modulation”, the waxing and waning of reflected radiation from the Sun, is the likely cause of global warming.
Dr Evans has a theory: solar activity. What he calls “albedo modulation”, the waxing and waning of reflected radiation from the Sun, is the likely cause of global warming.
Yes, which was something that I noted immediately when I started looking at the actual data: global temperatures had a very high correlation with observed solar activity which we have a very good record of going back hundreds of years because it was very easy to observe without modern scientific equipment. We thus have direct observations of same and records of same. They correlate, with a fairly deterministic (that is, fixed) lag time, to global temperatures.
CO2 does not which means you need to postulate a model that does not square with what we know about the physical properties of carbon dioxide.
...end.
BartSimpson @ Tue Oct 06, 2015 9:17 am
Meaning the sun is the driver of climate and not the bogeyman of CO2.
andyt @ Tue Oct 06, 2015 9:19 am
If he's right, hallelujah. Let's see how it plays out. What evidence does he have to back up his theory?
DrCaleb @ Tue Oct 06, 2015 9:21 am
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
Meaning the sun is the driver of climate and not the bogeyman of CO2.
$1:
Corrected sunspot history suggests climate change not due to natural solar trends
The Sunspot Number, the longest scientific experiment still ongoing, is a crucial tool used to study the solar dynamo, space weather and climate change. It has now been recalibrated and shows a consistent history of solar activity over the past few centuries.
The new record has no significant long-term upward trend in solar activity since 1700, as was previously indicated. This suggests that rising global temperatures since the industrial revolution cannot be attributed to increased solar activity.
The analysis, its results and its implications for climate research were made public on 7 August at a press briefing at the International Astronomical Union (IAU) XXIX General Assembly, currently taking place in Honolulu, Hawai`i, USA.
The Sunspot Number, the longest scientific experiment still ongoing, is a crucial tool used to study the solar dynamo, space weather and climate change. It has now been recalibrated and shows a consistent history of solar activity over the past few centuries.
The new record has no significant long-term upward trend in solar activity since 1700, as was previously indicated. This suggests that rising global temperatures since the industrial revolution cannot be attributed to increased solar activity.
The analysis, its results and its implications for climate research were made public on 7 August at a press briefing at the International Astronomical Union (IAU) XXIX General Assembly, currently taking place in Honolulu, Hawai`i, USA.
http://astronomynow.com/2015/08/08/corr ... ar-trends/
BartSimpson @ Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:03 am
Dr. Caleb, As this man's data is checked and tested we'll sooner or later find out if his pronouncements are correct.
Do note that a simple, "He's wrong", is not going to satisfy me.
Also note that he had access to the raw data and because he had that access he was able to ferret out the flaw in the computational models. This may well explain why the raw data has been such a state secret with the AGW alarmists.
DrCaleb @ Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:38 am
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
Dr. Caleb, As this man's data is checked and tested we'll sooner or later find out if his pronouncements are correct.
Do note that a simple, "He's wrong", is not going to satisfy me.
Also note that he had access to the raw data and because he had that access he was able to ferret out the flaw in the computational models. This may well explain why the raw data has been such a state secret with the AGW alarmists.
Do note that a simple, "He's wrong", is not going to satisfy me.
Also note that he had access to the raw data and because he had that access he was able to ferret out the flaw in the computational models. This may well explain why the raw data has been such a state secret with the AGW alarmists.
I said nothing about this guy's model. Time will tell about that.
I simply pointed to (yet another) study showing solar cycles and global warming are not related.