The California Drought, Which Was to Last Centuries, Is Over
BartSimpson @ Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:02 am
http://247wallst.com/economy/2017/01/13 ... y-be-over/
The same people who are telling you that they can accurately predict the climate 100 years from now are also the same people who said in 2014-2016 that California's drought was going to last two hundred years. Oh noes. Everybody panic.
If these people are wrong about the purported effects of global warming then what else are they wrong about? 
$1:
Recent storms that have brought heavy rain to Northern California are ending a years-long drought throughout most of the region. More rain storms are expected in the area, which will bring huge floods, but enough water to help land that has been so dry it has affected the economy, particularly for the agriculture sector. Not terribly long ago, scientists forecast the drought could last for decades, or even centuries.
The gold standard of drought measurement is the U.S. Drought Monitor, which is run jointly by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska—Lincoln. Two years ago, almost all of California suffered from some level of drought, according to the service. Over half the state suffered from the worst level, called “exceptional drought.” The area of California that measures at that level is now only a little over 2%. From San Francisco north, there is no drought at all.
In late 2014, scientists said the California drought was the worst in over 1,200 years and could persist for two centuries. These forecasts where based on everything from ocean temperatures in the Pacific to measures of centuries of water levels made by digging deep into the ground.
One of the first alarms about the duration of the California drought was from National Geographic:
California is experiencing its worst drought since record-keeping began in the mid 19th century, and scientists say this may be just the beginning. B. Lynn Ingram, a paleoclimatologist at the University of California at Berkeley, thinks that California needs to brace itself for a megadrought—one that could last for 200 years or more.
Only two and a half years later, the drought may be over. Rain has poured down so much recently that floods have become the threat, replacing perpetually dry ground. The 200-year drought is over.
The gold standard of drought measurement is the U.S. Drought Monitor, which is run jointly by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska—Lincoln. Two years ago, almost all of California suffered from some level of drought, according to the service. Over half the state suffered from the worst level, called “exceptional drought.” The area of California that measures at that level is now only a little over 2%. From San Francisco north, there is no drought at all.
In late 2014, scientists said the California drought was the worst in over 1,200 years and could persist for two centuries. These forecasts where based on everything from ocean temperatures in the Pacific to measures of centuries of water levels made by digging deep into the ground.
One of the first alarms about the duration of the California drought was from National Geographic:
California is experiencing its worst drought since record-keeping began in the mid 19th century, and scientists say this may be just the beginning. B. Lynn Ingram, a paleoclimatologist at the University of California at Berkeley, thinks that California needs to brace itself for a megadrought—one that could last for 200 years or more.
Only two and a half years later, the drought may be over. Rain has poured down so much recently that floods have become the threat, replacing perpetually dry ground. The 200-year drought is over.
DrCaleb @ Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:14 am
No, it isn't.
https://ca.water.usgs.gov/data/drought/
From an article I posted yesterday:
$1:
California’s San Joaquin Valley is (unhappily) famous for a history of groundwater depletion that has actually caused the land surface to sink in elevation. This subsidence is due to the fact that the water in the sediment beneath our feet actually bears some of the weight of everything above it. Removing that water from the tiny spaces between grains of material allows the sediment to compact down more tightly, causing subsidence up at the surface. The effect is not subtle in California—some places have sunk more than 30 feet (9 meters) over the years.
. . .
A new report released by researchers at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory last week updates the map with measurements covering May 2015 to September 2016. In just 16 months, surface elevations in the San Joaquin Valley dropped by as much as 56 centimeters (22 inches), with a significant area sinking by at least 20 centimeters (eight inches).
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/02 ... d-drought/
Do you think a few storms is going to replenish the parched ground water to the tune of 30 feet?
DrCaleb @ Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:29 am
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
The same people who are telling you that they can accurately predict the climate 100 years from now are also the same people who said in 2014-2016 that California's drought was going to last two hundred years. Oh noes. Everybody panic.
If these people are wrong about the purported effects of global warming then what else are they wrong about?
If these people are wrong about the purported effects of global warming then what else are they wrong about?
And there is another example of you reading one thing, but thinking it means something else.
That estimate was made by Berkeley professor B. Lynn Ingram. She's a paleoclimatologist, dealing with weather of the past, not the future. She's shown that droughts, and long term droughts, are not a new thing in California history. She not a climatologist.
bootlegga @ Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:31 am
Hate to burst your climate denial bubble (well, not really), but no it's not. 
$1:
Estimated Population in Drought Areas: 20,390,575
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/Stat ... or.aspx?CA
It's far better right now than it was in January, but the drought isn't over for all of California, not when 2/3 of the population still live in drought areas.
The difference is that much of California went from Exceptional/Extreme Drought to Moderate Drought.
But for shits and giggles, why don't we revisit this thread in the summer and see what the California drought map looks like?
BartSimpson @ Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:36 am
DrCaleb DrCaleb:
Do you think a few storms is going to replenish the parched ground water to the tune of 30 feet?
No. But the ground water has been getting pumped out faster than it can be refreshed for the past seventy years or so. The ground water problem has nothing to do with the drought but it does have everything to do with farmers using ground water to replace the surface water allotments they lost when court orders reserved water for environmental purposes.
Bottom line is the farms should never have been started in the desert. But that's old news.
In any case the ground water issue predates this drought.
https://ca.water.usgs.gov/projects/cent ... alley.html
$1:
The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the nation. Beginning around the 1920's, farmers relied upon groundwater for water supply. Over time, overpumping caused groundwater-level declines and associated aquifer-system compaction and land subsidence that resulted in permanent aquifer-system storage loss. By 1970, significant land subsidence (more than one foot) had occurred in about half of the San Joaquin Valley, or about 5,200 square miles (Poland and others, 1975), and locally, some areas had subsided by as much as 28 feet.
Reduced surface-water availability during 1976-77, 1986-92, 2007-09, and 2012-2015 caused groundwater-pumping increases in the San Joaquin Valley, declines in water-levels to near or beyond historic lows, and renewed aquifer compaction. The resulting land subsidence has reduced the freeboard and flow capacity of the Delta-Mendota Canal—as well as the California Aqueduct and other canals that transport floodwater and deliver irrigation water—requiring expensive repairs.
Reduced surface-water availability during 1976-77, 1986-92, 2007-09, and 2012-2015 caused groundwater-pumping increases in the San Joaquin Valley, declines in water-levels to near or beyond historic lows, and renewed aquifer compaction. The resulting land subsidence has reduced the freeboard and flow capacity of the Delta-Mendota Canal—as well as the California Aqueduct and other canals that transport floodwater and deliver irrigation water—requiring expensive repairs.
BartSimpson @ Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:41 am
bootlegga bootlegga:
Hate to burst your climate denial bubble (well, not really), but no it's not.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/Stat ... or.aspx?CA
It's far better right now than it was in January, but the drought isn't over for all of California, not when 2/3 of the population still live in drought areas.
The difference is that much of California went from Exceptional/Extreme Drought to Moderate Drought.
But for shits and giggles, why don't we revisit this thread in the summer and see what the California drought map looks like?
$1:
Estimated Population in Drought Areas: 20,390,575
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/Stat ... or.aspx?CA
It's far better right now than it was in January, but the drought isn't over for all of California, not when 2/3 of the population still live in drought areas.
The difference is that much of California went from Exceptional/Extreme Drought to Moderate Drought.
But for shits and giggles, why don't we revisit this thread in the summer and see what the California drought map looks like?
The problem with your map is that it looks like that in normal years anyway. That's why the state has a massive water project that moves water from the north to the south.
That's also why the southern California real estate interests are pushing the $100bn 'Delta Tunnels' project to move even more water to LA and San Diego.
http://www.capoliticalreview.com/capoli ... oondoggle/
DrCaleb @ Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:44 am
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
DrCaleb DrCaleb:
Do you think a few storms is going to replenish the parched ground water to the tune of 30 feet?
No. But the ground water has been getting pumped out faster than it can be refreshed for the past seventy years or so. The ground water problem has nothing to do with the drought but it does have everything to do with farmers using ground water to replace the surface water allotments they lost when court orders reserved water for environmental purposes.
Bottom line is the farms should never have been started in the desert. But that's old news.
In any case the ground water issue predates this drought.
Ground water has a lot to do with it. In that ARS article above, the groundwater aqueducts have dropped altitude the same as the land they are on. Some now no longer have a declining slope enough to carry water between the two ends of them.
But I agree, the drought situation is compounded by you guys sending us all your water in the form of fresh produce. We love the produce, but it costs California its future.
BartSimpson @ Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:51 am
DrCaleb DrCaleb:
Ground water has a lot to do with it. In that ARS article above, the groundwater aqueducts have dropped altitude the same as the land they are on. Some now no longer have a declining slope enough to carry water between the two ends of them.
But I agree, the drought situation is compounded by you guys sending us all your water in the form of fresh produce. We love the produce, but it costs California its future.
But I agree, the drought situation is compounded by you guys sending us all your water in the form of fresh produce. We love the produce, but it costs California its future.
California is eventually going to have to decide if we value agriculture as much as we value bringing in millions more immigrants (from other US states and abroad) and building more urban and suburban sprawl where people will live and demand more and more water.
The politicians, IMHO, will choose the immigrants even though that sets the state on course to be a net importer of food by the end of the century.
DrCaleb @ Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:13 am
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
DrCaleb DrCaleb:
Ground water has a lot to do with it. In that ARS article above, the groundwater aqueducts have dropped altitude the same as the land they are on. Some now no longer have a declining slope enough to carry water between the two ends of them.
But I agree, the drought situation is compounded by you guys sending us all your water in the form of fresh produce. We love the produce, but it costs California its future.
But I agree, the drought situation is compounded by you guys sending us all your water in the form of fresh produce. We love the produce, but it costs California its future.
California is eventually going to have to decide if we value agriculture as much as we value bringing in millions more immigrants (from other US states and abroad) and building more urban and suburban sprawl where people will live and demand more and more water.
The politicians, IMHO, will choose the immigrants even though that sets the state on course to be a net importer of food by the end of the century.
California can always use all that wind and sunshine to desalinate sea water and clean waste water to irrigate those crops like Israel does. Then you'll need cheap labour to continue picking all the fruit and veggies.
Sunnyways @ Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:17 am
Nobody wants a drought, obviously. Let's hope these rains keep up in a more moderate form for the next decade. Unfortunately, that seems unlikely.
bootlegga @ Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:18 am
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
bootlegga bootlegga:
Hate to burst your climate denial bubble (well, not really), but no it's not.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/Stat ... or.aspx?CA
It's far better right now than it was in January, but the drought isn't over for all of California, not when 2/3 of the population still live in drought areas.
The difference is that much of California went from Exceptional/Extreme Drought to Moderate Drought.
But for shits and giggles, why don't we revisit this thread in the summer and see what the California drought map looks like?
$1:
Estimated Population in Drought Areas: 20,390,575
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/Stat ... or.aspx?CA
It's far better right now than it was in January, but the drought isn't over for all of California, not when 2/3 of the population still live in drought areas.
The difference is that much of California went from Exceptional/Extreme Drought to Moderate Drought.
But for shits and giggles, why don't we revisit this thread in the summer and see what the California drought map looks like?
The problem with your map is that it looks like that in normal years anyway. That's why the state has a massive water project that moves water from the north to the south.
That's also why the southern California real estate interests are pushing the $100bn 'Delta Tunnels' project to move even more water to LA and San Diego.
http://www.capoliticalreview.com/capoli ... oondoggle/
So you're saying that 2/3 of Californians normally deal with drought year round?
Not sure what the point of this thread is then...
![[huh]](./images/smilies/icon_scratch.gif "huh?"){kind=icon}
BeaverFever @ Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:21 am
5 years of drought, it rained a little recently, therefore no more drought or water shortages ever again.
This is the same idiocy as the "It's cold outside right now therefore no global warming". Or a homeless man finds $1,000 in the street and decides that means he's no longer poor so can afford to blow half of it at the racetrack.
BartSimpson @ Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:41 pm
bootlegga bootlegga:
So you're saying that 2/3 of Californians normally deal with drought year round?
No, I'm saying that 2/3 of Californians normally deal with normal California weather.
BartSimpson @ Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:45 pm
BeaverFever BeaverFever:
it rained a little recently
Understatement of the year.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sto/
$1:
Flash Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
211 PM PST Wed Feb 15 2017
CAZ016-172000-
/O.EXT.KSTO.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-170219T1200Z/
/00000.0.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central Sacramento Valley-
211 PM PST Wed Feb 15 2017
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE Auxiliary SPILLWAY AT
OROVILLE DAM IN BUTTE COUNTY CA...
The National Weather Service in Sacramento CA has issued a flash
flood watch for the Auxiliary Spillway of Oroville Dam in Butte
County.
Officials managing the incident indicated that the situation has
stabilized sufficiently to lift mandatory evacuation orders.
However, voluntary evacuation notices are in place.
* Flash Flood Watch for Auxiliary Spillway of Oroville Dam on the
Feather River in Butte County California.
* Watch will remain in place until the situation changes.
Residents are urged to follow emergency instructions from local
authorities.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A flash flood watch means that there is a situation that requires
close monitoring...but no immediate life threatening conditions
exist. People in the area of the flash flood watch should monitor
the situation closely and be prepared to quickly evacuate if
necessary.
&&
$$
Flood Warning
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
851 AM PST THU FEB 16 2017
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
California...
Sacramento River Below Red Bluff Diversion Dam
Sacramento River At Vina Woodson Bridge
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
California..
Sacramento River At Tehama Bridge
Sacramento River At Ord Ferry
.Rainfall forecast for today, Friday and Sunday/Monday is
expected to keep the Sacramento River at elevated levels for the next
several days.
Forecasts are based on present and forecasted meteorological and
hydrologic conditions at time of issuance.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Unlisted forecast points are expected to remain below monitor stage.
All those affected by river conditions should remain alert for rapid
changes and for possible forecast revisions.
For more hydrologic information and stage definitions refer to the
following web site: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sto/hydro_data.php
The next statement will be issued Thursday, February 16, 2017 at 3 pm PST.
&&
CAC007-021-171850-
/O.CON.KSTO.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ORFC1.1.ER.170208T0839Z.170209T0215Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
851 AM PST THU FEB 16 2017
The Flood Warning continues for
The Sacramento River At Ord Ferry.
* At 7:45 AM Thursday the stage was 114.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast to fluctuate near 115.0 FT thru near this noon then
forecast to recede to near 114.0 FT early tomorrow morning then
forecast to fluctuate near 114.0 FT thru late tomorrow morning.
* Flood stage 114.0 ft
* Monitor stage 110.0 ft
* Impact...Near 114.0 feet, Designated flood stage. Design overflow
level for M&T, 3Bs and Goose Lake flood control facilities to
divert flood flows into Butte Basin. M&T overflows close River Road
from Ord Ferry Road to Chico Road. Ord Ferry Road is already
closed.
* Impact...Near 110.5 feet, Head cuts in 3Bs silt weir start overflow
into Butte Basin, flooding dips on Ord Ferry Road west of River
Road. Persistent flows at or above this level increase flooding in
Butte Basin. Ord Ferry Road and additional roads in Glenn and
Colusa counties are closed due to flooding.
&&
LAT...LON 3971 12211 3971 12189 3955 12185 3953 12206
$$
Wind Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
721 AM PST Thu Feb 16 2017
Winds for the northern and central Sacramento Valley will continue
into the early afternoon. As a result, the wind advisory has been
extended until 1 PM PST.
CAZ015-016-162100-
/O.EXT.KSTO.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-170216T2100Z/
Northern Sacramento Valley-Central Sacramento Valley-
Including the cities of Redding, Red Bluff, Chico, Oroville,
and Marysville/Yuba City
721 AM PST Thu Feb 16 2017
...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...
* TIMING...Strong winds continuing through mid morning then
decreasing slowly through the afternoon.
* WINDS...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.
* IMPACTS...Localized downed trees and power outages along with
difficult driving conditions, especially for smaller and
higher profile vehicles.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph or greater are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult,
especially for smaller and higher profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.
&&
Interact with us via social media
http://www.facebook.com/nws.sacramento
http://www.twitter.com/nwssacramento
$$
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
211 PM PST Wed Feb 15 2017
CAZ016-172000-
/O.EXT.KSTO.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-170219T1200Z/
/00000.0.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central Sacramento Valley-
211 PM PST Wed Feb 15 2017
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE Auxiliary SPILLWAY AT
OROVILLE DAM IN BUTTE COUNTY CA...
The National Weather Service in Sacramento CA has issued a flash
flood watch for the Auxiliary Spillway of Oroville Dam in Butte
County.
Officials managing the incident indicated that the situation has
stabilized sufficiently to lift mandatory evacuation orders.
However, voluntary evacuation notices are in place.
* Flash Flood Watch for Auxiliary Spillway of Oroville Dam on the
Feather River in Butte County California.
* Watch will remain in place until the situation changes.
Residents are urged to follow emergency instructions from local
authorities.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A flash flood watch means that there is a situation that requires
close monitoring...but no immediate life threatening conditions
exist. People in the area of the flash flood watch should monitor
the situation closely and be prepared to quickly evacuate if
necessary.
&&
$$
Flood Warning
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
851 AM PST THU FEB 16 2017
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
California...
Sacramento River Below Red Bluff Diversion Dam
Sacramento River At Vina Woodson Bridge
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
California..
Sacramento River At Tehama Bridge
Sacramento River At Ord Ferry
.Rainfall forecast for today, Friday and Sunday/Monday is
expected to keep the Sacramento River at elevated levels for the next
several days.
Forecasts are based on present and forecasted meteorological and
hydrologic conditions at time of issuance.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Unlisted forecast points are expected to remain below monitor stage.
All those affected by river conditions should remain alert for rapid
changes and for possible forecast revisions.
For more hydrologic information and stage definitions refer to the
following web site: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sto/hydro_data.php
The next statement will be issued Thursday, February 16, 2017 at 3 pm PST.
&&
CAC007-021-171850-
/O.CON.KSTO.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ORFC1.1.ER.170208T0839Z.170209T0215Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
851 AM PST THU FEB 16 2017
The Flood Warning continues for
The Sacramento River At Ord Ferry.
* At 7:45 AM Thursday the stage was 114.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast to fluctuate near 115.0 FT thru near this noon then
forecast to recede to near 114.0 FT early tomorrow morning then
forecast to fluctuate near 114.0 FT thru late tomorrow morning.
* Flood stage 114.0 ft
* Monitor stage 110.0 ft
* Impact...Near 114.0 feet, Designated flood stage. Design overflow
level for M&T, 3Bs and Goose Lake flood control facilities to
divert flood flows into Butte Basin. M&T overflows close River Road
from Ord Ferry Road to Chico Road. Ord Ferry Road is already
closed.
* Impact...Near 110.5 feet, Head cuts in 3Bs silt weir start overflow
into Butte Basin, flooding dips on Ord Ferry Road west of River
Road. Persistent flows at or above this level increase flooding in
Butte Basin. Ord Ferry Road and additional roads in Glenn and
Colusa counties are closed due to flooding.
&&
LAT...LON 3971 12211 3971 12189 3955 12185 3953 12206
$$
Wind Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
721 AM PST Thu Feb 16 2017
Winds for the northern and central Sacramento Valley will continue
into the early afternoon. As a result, the wind advisory has been
extended until 1 PM PST.
CAZ015-016-162100-
/O.EXT.KSTO.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-170216T2100Z/
Northern Sacramento Valley-Central Sacramento Valley-
Including the cities of Redding, Red Bluff, Chico, Oroville,
and Marysville/Yuba City
721 AM PST Thu Feb 16 2017
...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...
* TIMING...Strong winds continuing through mid morning then
decreasing slowly through the afternoon.
* WINDS...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.
* IMPACTS...Localized downed trees and power outages along with
difficult driving conditions, especially for smaller and
higher profile vehicles.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph or greater are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult,
especially for smaller and higher profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.
&&
Interact with us via social media
http://www.facebook.com/nws.sacramento
http://www.twitter.com/nwssacramento
$$
bootlegga @ Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:34 pm
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
bootlegga bootlegga:
So you're saying that 2/3 of Californians normally deal with drought year round?
No, I'm saying that 2/3 of Californians normally deal with normal California weather.
That's not what you said at all - you said:
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
The problem with your map is that it looks like that in normal years anyway.
After it was noted by the Drought Monitor:
$1:
Estimated Population in Drought Areas: 20,390,575
Therefore, if your statement is correct, 2/3 of Californians live in drought in normal years anyway.
The problem with your flawed argument is that because the majority isn't in 'Exceptional" drought state, there is no drought.
However, as the US Drought Monitor notes, nearly 2/3 of Californians (20.3 out of 35 million) are living in drought areas. Sure, the drought is not be as bad as it was six months ago, but a huge swath of central/southern is still in Moderate Drought state. And as I said earlier, let's wait six months and re-examine where California is then.
Who knows, maybe you're right, and the rest of California will slip into just 'Abnormally Dry' mode, but I wouldn't bet the farm on that if I was you...and I bet not a lot of farmers in the Central Valley will either.