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http://articles.latimes.com/2010/feb/28/opinion/la-oe-ferguson28-2010feb28

   

   

Fair enough. This article is mainly making the point that if a collapse comes, it might be sudden and drastic, not gradual as most people assume. It cites Russia as a recent example. And, here we are 20 years later and they seem to have pulled themselves together a bit. So maybe it will be the same for the US. Mostly their global military reach collapsing.

What are those plans of yours - cabin in the mountains, bomb shelter?

   

Why would Canadians need to run for the hills?

   

   

Because if the US collapses, we'll get pulled down with them. They may go after our resources with their still strong military, or if things get really bad, many of those yahoos with guns down there may decide their chances are better here. Or just the economic aspect, as their economy falls apart, so will ours.

Or just if Steven Harper wins a majority.

   

If the US truly collapses the country will fracture.

Canada would be better off making alliances with whatever entity comes out of the northern states rather than sticking our heads in the proverbial sand.

   

That's assuming Canada doesn't fracture as well. On the west coast we've always looked south, so Pacifica might become a reality in that case.

   

The only thing worse than one balkanized North American country is?

   

Global military reach collapsing?

What are you talking about? Whether or not you want to acknowledge it, US military reach is stronger than that of the next three or four nations combined (say China, the UK, Russia and France) and two of those four are US allies. US military reach is not fading one iota. Each day it extends it reach, not contracts, and that's due to the simple fact that no one can keep up with their technology.

Other nations may be able to catch up someday, when their economies are stronger and can afford more defence spending, but right now, the US retains it's #1 spot with ease.

The Russian economy is nowhere near capable of supporting a military that is capable of matching the American military, and even the Chinese are decades away from being able to match them. And that's if they choose to, which is doubtful. China, unlike most other imperial powers, has never really had an expansionist leader like Hitler or Napoleon, bent on world domination. Sure, they've had murderous megalomaniacs like Mao, but never someone who actually wanted to conquer the world. Frankly, the current crop of leaders are more worried about the 300 or so million dirt poor migrant workers in China than the US military.

I agree that US decline is inevitable, the question, like Ferguson points out, is when and how quickly. Unlike the USSR, the US has plenty of wealthy allies (Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the UK, etc) with at least adequate militaries of their own (Canada's arguably being one of the best, but also the smallest), to help them with economic crises or conflicts.

No, I think US decline will occur gradually, much as the UK's did in the 20th century. However, as is does, I think the world will return to a multi-polar world (like the great power days of the 19th century), rather than a world dominated by one superpower. Given that several European countries are still quite wealthy and militarily powerful, and that newcomers like Brazil and India are industrializing, I think the world will have up to a dozen major nations shaping events.

Niall Ferguson is a fantastic historian. You should watch his War of the World documentary (or read it in book form if you prefer). It was a fascinating look at conflict in the 20th century. Some of his other works are equally good reads.

   

Andyt, how are you defining west coast? If you mean the Lower Mainland, maybe. If you mean further up, not necessarily.

   

So do I.

   

The problem is, America isn't an empire. It's one very powerful country with a boatload of good alliances and a massive economy. Unlike the Roman Empire, the British Empire, or heck, even the Soviet Union, the United States doesn't keep colonies outside of a few islands that are populated by Americans. Will the US maybe face tougher times due to its massive debt? Fuck yes it will, but will the American "Empire" collapse? No

   

   

America is definitely an empire. It fits the definition to a tee.

   

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