BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!

Short of NDPers polled but not turning up to vote, what other logical explanation is there?
Like I mentioned in another thread, there was not ONE Liberal sign on private property in my whole town - but the Liberals here were almost 2 to 1 in the actual vote count.

What floors me, as someone with more than a passing interest in statistics, is how teh pollsters got it so incredibly wrong. That's two provincial elections where they have absolutely gotten it wrong.

Did the polling methods change? Or have people changed teh way to respond to polls.

I wonder if people are (rightfully) pissed by accumulating BC Liberal scandals and thus tell pollsters they are voting NDP as a protest thing, but then--whether consciously or unconsciously--chnage their mind at the spectre of a Dix NDP government?

One thing is for sure--Angus-Reid, Ipsos and the rest of themn will be dropping their rates significantly. They were off by about 18 points. I could have done better. I wonder what they pay? Then again, an octopus could have done better.

A little bit relieved though. Dix had a little whiff of the Glen Clark about him.

He needed a new deck too?

Despite my utter joy and jubilation here's my best guess as to what happened...a few factors:

1) The BC Liberals ran a far superior GOTV (Get Out The Vote) campaign and too many BC NDP supporters didn't actually get out to the polls & vote

2) The "free enterprise coalition" was saved. The absolutely horrid campaign of John Cummins and the BC Conservatives brought home most of the federal Conservative British Columbians who had been flirting with the BC Conservatives.

3) Negative advertising works. Voters turn their noses up at it. But, I'm sorry, it does. Positivity doesn't work in BC. Our politics here have always been incredibly polarizing and negative.

4) The Green vote held up. A lot of voters on the left thinking the BC NDP was cruising to victory may have parked their votes in the Greens.

5) Kinder Morgan. This is tied to (4). Dix so stupidly came out against it and it didn't pay off. What it did was gave Christy the ability to jump on the issue and embolden voters' very real fear of NDP job killing economic policies.

6) Incredibly well scripted Liberal/Clark campaign. She was out every day in hard hats, overalls, and always harping on jobs, debt, and the economy. Sure the Liberal record isn't glowing, but the NDP allowed it to be framed like that. We heard little on health care and education from this election, which the NDP is strong on.

7) Clark is an incredible campaigner. When she wasn't be viewed simply as the incumbent Premier and government and pitted directly in comparison to Dix in the context of an election campaign, her confidence numbers soared.

"Go with the devil you know" and the "lesser of two evils" factor. The BC NDP is incredibly dysfunctional in this province. They eat their own. They throw away elections so badly. Its sad...

9) Silent "majority" are why the polls were wrong. Critics always yell the loudest. The hatred and vitriol for Premier Clark and the Liberals was all over the place. Liberal voters came back home to the coalition and decided to go down with the sinking ship - but they supported the cause privately.

I cannot tell you how many voters I observed in the last 2 weeks who were either going to (a) stay home, (b) Vote BC Conservative or (c) centrist/apolitical voter planning to go Dix who flopped to Clark in the campaign. People got scared of the NDP when the campaign got framed on the economy.

And a lot of Liberal voters weren't affirming their love of Clark but rather voting to keep the NDP out of office and the hell away from our economy. They likely were ashamed to tell pollsters or their neighbours they'd vote Liberal given the media narrative and how people on the street talk about Christy Clark.

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At the end of the day, people like my parents quietly went to the polls yesterday and marked their ballots for the BC Liberals. I'm partisan and volunteer but my parents aren't that engaged and care that much. They were never impressed with Clark, and my parents actually voted twice for the Manitoba NDP of Gary Doer in MB because he was a great leader and pragmatic government. But they were scared as hell of the BC NDP and Dix screwing up our future with their incredible anti-resource stances. So my parents, like thousands of British Columbians, kept their mouths shut when their co-workers and friend bashed Christy Clark and maybe even nodded in agreement, but feared the worser alternative and returned the devil we know, and the economy-friendly option back to government.

Its not an overwhelmingly happy narrative or story. Voters acting out of negative intention rather than positive affirmation. But welcome to BC politics.

The other thing that last night proved to me is that the hippie/pot smoking/environmentalist nutcases/latte sipping/yoga/vegan/organic/union/socialist culture that is so in your face in Urban Vancouver is a vocal minority. 50% of voters voted BC Liberal or BC Conservative for the centre-right option. The majority of this province doesn't identify with this sub culture and could plainly see the NDP was beholden to these ideologues who would reap chaos on our prosperity.

End of rant...

Given the number of incredibly horrible lead-foot drivers in BC (i.e. all of you, jerkies) maybe Clark's popularity shot up after she was filmed running that red light.