If I knew how to start a poll, I would.

This thread is dedicated to Toro. I'm going to post a bunch of really fun headlines about financial stuff and then Toro can whip up some graphs from the Fed that proves it's all nonsense and we can go back to sleep.

Reuters - Large U.S. bank collapse ahead, says ex-IMF economist
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The worst of the global financial crisis is yet to come and a large U.S. bank will fail in the next few months as the world's biggest economy hits further troubles, former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff said on Tuesday.


Bloomberg - US Banks on 'problem list' rises by 30%
Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said its ``problem list'' of banks increased 30 percent in the second quarter to the highest total in five years as more commercial real-estate loans were overdue. The list had 117 banks as of June 30, up from 90 in the first quarter.


Bloomberg - 10th bank failure in US as Georgia based Integrity Bank is seized by regulators
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Alpharetta, Georgia-based Integrity Bank has been closed by regulators and its assets have been transferred to Regions Financial Corp., Regions said in a prepared statement late Friday.


AP - BANK OF CHINA SLASHES FANNIE & FREDDIE HOLDINGS!!
NEW YORK (AP) - Shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fell Friday, after the Bank of China said it reduced its portfolio of securities issued or guaranteed by the mortgage financiers by about 25 percent since the end of June.


BusinessWeek - US inflation likely to hit double digits by 2009
Growing evidence suggests American consumers, businesspeople, and political leaders should all be bracing for double-digit inflation, probably as early as 2009.

New York Times - US exporting like a third world country

CNBC - US government (taxpayer) has already pumped $1.43 TRILLION into housing market over past 12 months

Bloomberg - GM, Ford Seek $50 Billion From U.S., Double Request

So, get your bets down now on when that Major US Bank will collapse:
a) Before the US Election
b) After the election but before inauguration
c) Just after [insert name of presidential candidate bought by Wall Street here] is inaugurated.
d) All of the above

   

No, see Burns, unlike you, I have real, live money on the line.

You want to post something that isn't old news? I've known about the problems in the housing and financial sectors for a very long time, which is why I've done quite well shorting the market the past few years thankyouverymuch.

And I would suggest that instead of wallowing in Schadenfreude, you perhaps look on your own side of the border to see what's coming in the not too distant future.

   

And just how do you know that I don't have real money on the line?
What? The Fed told you?

No, you just made that little fact up. Trying for a job on FOX news?

You can call it Shadenfreude or you could call it gallows humour.

By the way, I'm so terribly glad that you've been able to profit so handsomely from all this human misery! What a wonderful world you must love in!

re: happenings on this side of the border, care to whip out your crystal ball, Mephisto?

I also see that you haven't bothered to comment on the interview with Michael Hudson international-politics-f2/on-the-road-to-serfdom-t67223.html
Decided that it was too hot in the kitchen, have you?

   

Its what I do for a living. I'm willing to wager its not what you do for a living.



I have a fiduciary duty to execute my best professional judgment for the people who pay my salary. I only react to the conditions that are present. It does not matter whether or not I profit from bad conditions because they will occur no matter what I do.



I would suggest you trot on down to your local bookstore and pick up this book.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/

Its not hard to see, if you understand financial markets and economic history.



Well, this may shock you, but I don't follow you around the Internet, nor do I feel a need to comment on everything you post.

   

Humm, this sounds what I claimed about 2 months ago, but members (mtbr) attacked me that Canada's economy does not follow the U.S. market.

http://www.greaterfool.ca (nice find Toro)

   

a market collapse (US) and a price correction in Canada are two different things.

"Those gains offset a decline in Alberta, where listings continue to decline from a peak hit in March."

houses are still selling in Alberta.

   

Ironically, a US bank collaspe will affect everyone else more than it will the US.

   

Home prices have fallen 15%-20% in the US. There is probably another 10% to go.

Prices have just begun to correct in Canada, and they will fall nearly as far.

For example, it is now cheaper to buy a house in Chicago, Phoenix, Miami, Atlanta, Charlotte, Tampa, etc., than it is to buy a home in Saskatoon. That's pretty silly.

After the housing bubble of the late-80s, early-90s in Canada - which mirrored that of the US - home prices fell 30% in Toronto and nearly 40% in Vancouver. Since this bubble is even more ridiculous than the last one, with the US economy in recession, and with commodity prices waning, there's no reason to think that home prices won't fall even further than before.

And BTW, house prices in Calgary fell 60% in the mid-80s once oil broke. It wouldn't surprise me to see that again.

   

There is employment in Saskatoon all be it they're house prices are a little high.

do you think oil will break ?...I don't


what about Subprime mortgage rates?...something you don't find in Canada.

   

Sure you do, its called "below prime."

But that's besides the point. There was no subprime mortgage market when home prices collapsed in the early-90s.

Home prices in America relative to income actually weren't all that skewed compared to the rest of the world. They were insanely high but not as high as they were in Spain or Ireland or the UK. Canada is approaching the same level of over-valuation as occurred in America. It matters not that the mechanism for inflated home prices were subprime mortgages. What matters is that they got so high relative to income.

Home prices doubled in two years in Saskatoon. They doubled in three years in Calgary and Edmonton. Incomes did not double in Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton. The relationship got out of whack.

Oil will eventually settle much lower than here, somewhere in the $50-$70 range. I just don't know when. We may have already seen the highs.

   

House prices in western Canada have already peaked. It's doubtful they'll continue to inflate with the current market situation. Afford-ability has become an issue and consumers will be priced out of expensive homes and it will eventually drive the market down to where Ontario's is currently.

As for the US major bank collapse, the quasi- government owned Freddie M and Annie M. will most likely need to be fully nationalised by the FED which may dip the account balance deeper into the negatives. Fredie and Annie will most likely be sold off piece by piece once fully nationalised.

   

Prices peaked in June of 07 in Calgary at an unsustainable level, since than there has been as little as a 5 percent drop in some areas of Calgary.

We still suffer from a labor shortage unlike Ontario.

Oil at 50 bucks...I would like to see some politician take credit for that if it ever happens.

Bank of Canada is about to lower interest rates again.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article ... DcaS3ds4IA

   

If you go back and look at how home prices behaved in Calgary in the 1980s, they didn't roll over until 1984 or 1985. They were only down 10-15% long after oil peaked and collapsed.

That's because housing is a discrete market, not a continuous one. Stocks are a continuous market. Prices are changing all the time because investors will trade up to hundreds of millions of shares of a stock each and every day. But houses are a discrete market because they rarely trade hands. Your home will not have 10,000 buyers and sellers every day. The bid/ask spreads are very wide at the beginning of a housing bust. Thus, what happens is that when house prices start to fall, sellers resist because they anchor the price of their home to what the value of it was in the boom. It takes them months if not years to readjust their valuations downwards. And they come down because eventually the sellers have to sell while the buyers sit on their hands waiting for prices to correct. Sellers have to sell because their incomes cannot support their mortgages.

I've seen this here in Florida where everybody was absolutely sure that home prices were never, ever, ever going to fall because everyone wants to live in Florida, there's only so much land, lots of foreign buyers, yada yada yada. Its the same frickin' script over and over again which plays out every few decades. Now, homes that were priced at $1.2 million are trading at $550k. The prices have collapsed because the sellers threw in the towel since there was no reason for buyers to buy when they can rent for much cheaper than what it would cost to buy.

I don't know if prices will fall 60% in Calgary. All I know is that when incomes cannot sustain home prices - especially in places like Calgary and Saskatoon when you can see 30 miles of farmland whichever way you look standing at the top of a tall building - then they are going to come down hard.

   

dp

   

[/quote]

...I bet the BoC will keep rates the same. Inflation is still high (even if core inflation is far lower, the price of food and gas have a heavy impact). I'll be highly surprised if they move in to cut the rates at this time.