Canada Kicks Ass
What if pipelines don't last long enough to pay off?

REPLY

1  2  3  Next



andyt @ Fri Apr 08, 2016 7:05 am

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fossil- ... -1.3524952

$1:
"Investors putting money into new carbon-emitting infrastructure need to ask hard questions about how long those assets will operate for, and assess the risk of future shutdowns and writeoffs," says Cameron Hepburn, one of the academics involved in new study.

The hard questions investors face include whether the investments will pay off.

The study discusses electricity generating plants but, as Hepburn says, the same thing applies to any other energy investment.

Some of the proponents of Canadian pipeline and oilsands investments reject the climate change argument. For investors considering whether to invest, whether climate change is true or not really doesn't matter.

For their own financial benefit, what investors must consider is whether the climate risk has been properly calculated into the future income stream.

If investors in power plants, pipelines and new oil development go ahead without proper regard to climate risk and find those assets stranded, they will be worth less than advertised.

   



Lemmy @ Fri Apr 08, 2016 8:04 am

It's not just investors that have to consider costs & benefits. For society as a whole, any resources directed towards oil use take, as opportunity cost, resources away from alternative energy R & D. This means the true costs of oil use are underestimated, on top of the fact that we've spent decades using oil without considering the true environmental costs.

   



andyt @ Fri Apr 08, 2016 8:13 am

Yes. But it's investors making their decisions that will swing this either was. At the moment I'm surprised there's still such a big push on from Alberta to build pipes (see Notley's kitchen table address) when even with no opposition, the product is so devalued and the world is awash in the stuff. They say that the drying up of investment has affected Canada more than any other producer. May be time to quite flogging a dead horse.

   



BartSimpson @ Fri Apr 08, 2016 9:23 am

Private investors will invest in what makes sense.

Despite billions in subsidies 'green' enterprises keep failing in droves so they're obviously not a good investment.

Pipelines are a proven technology and they've been profitable for around 150 years. That makes them a sensible investment.

   



Lemmy @ Fri Apr 08, 2016 9:42 am

BartSimpson BartSimpson:
Private investors will invest in what makes sense.

Despite billions in subsidies 'green' enterprises keep failing in droves so they're obviously not a good investment.

Pipelines are a proven technology and they've been profitable for around 150 years. That makes them a sensible investment.

That presumes perfect information. It fails to account for external costs. That's why the marketplace fails when we're talking about polluting industries.

In large measure, the failure is mine (well, economists') since we've been unable to adequately measure and model external pollution damages.

   



BartSimpson @ Fri Apr 08, 2016 10:15 am

Perhaps you're failing to measure the benefits of carbon based fuels. :idea:

If all you're looking to find are the negative impacts then the chances are that that's all you'll find.

   



Lemmy @ Fri Apr 08, 2016 10:39 am

BartSimpson BartSimpson:
Perhaps you're failing to measure the benefits of carbon based fuels. :idea:

If all you're looking to find are the negative impacts then the chances are that that's all you'll find.

No, that's what we do in my line of work: look for both and attempt to measure both, without bias towards either.

   



Canadian_Mind @ Fri Apr 08, 2016 11:20 am

Lemmy Lemmy:
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
Perhaps you're failing to measure the benefits of carbon based fuels. :idea:

If all you're looking to find are the negative impacts then the chances are that that's all you'll find.

No, that's what we do in my line of work: look for both and attempt to measure both, without bias towards either.


Over the years you've begun to show more personal bias. You can't just pull the "I'm a professional, I have no bias" card. Everyone has bias, what matters is how well you supress it in order to seek out the honest truth. Pretty much since the day you had your blow up, left for a bit, and since come back, you seem like a much more openly biased individual than you were before. I don't care if you are biased, we all are. But I do care about how honest you are about your personal bias.

   



Lemmy @ Fri Apr 08, 2016 11:34 am

Canadian_Mind Canadian_Mind:
Lemmy Lemmy:
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
Perhaps you're failing to measure the benefits of carbon based fuels. :idea:

If all you're looking to find are the negative impacts then the chances are that that's all you'll find.

No, that's what we do in my line of work: look for both and attempt to measure both, without bias towards either.


Over the years you've begun to show more personal bias. You can't just pull the "I'm a professional, I have no bias" card. Everyone has bias, what matters is how well you supress it in order to seek out the honest truth. Pretty much since the day you had your blow up, left for a bit, and since come back, you seem like a much more openly biased individual than you were before. I don't care if you are biased, we all are. But I do care about how honest you are about your personal bias.

Maybe, but I don't think it's relevant here. It's not like I have a bias that would make me want to overstate the environmental damages associated with an industry and, similarly, understate the consumer benefits of said industry. Especially when we're talking about the oil industry since I'm a muscle car, gear-head sort that loves few things more than burning gasoline!

What is this blow up you're speaking of?

And what sort of bias that you think I'm displaying since my return, (which was from sabbatical to complete a project, btw, and had nothing to do with CKA)?

   



PluggyRug @ Fri Apr 08, 2016 11:40 am

BartSimpson BartSimpson:


Despite billions in subsidies 'green' enterprises keep failing in droves so they're obviously not a good investment.



Abound Solar: $400 million. Bankrupt.

Ener1: $118 million. Bankrupt.

Solyndra: $500 million. Bankrupt.

Ecotality: $126 million. Bankrupt.

A123 Solar: $279 million. Bankrupt.

Beacon Power: $43 million. Bankrupt.

Evergreen Solar: $527 Million. Bankrupt.

Amonix Solar: $21 million. Bankrupt.

Babcock & Brown: $178 million. Bankrupt.

Raser Technologies: $33 million. Bankrup

   



Lemmy @ Fri Apr 08, 2016 11:45 am

Fail.

I'd could post a list of start up failures in other "new technology" sectors. Nothing surprising. When a new industry starts up, people fail. How many "dot-coms" went tits up in the dawning days of the internet? How many automakers went under in the 1920s? etc, etc...

I could also post a list of resounding business success stories in the "green industries" sector. That list would be hundreds of times longer than the 10 bankruptcies you listed.

   



Zipperfish @ Fri Apr 08, 2016 11:46 am

BartSimpson BartSimpson:
Private investors will invest in what makes sense.

Despite billions in subsidies 'green' enterprises keep failing in droves so they're obviously not a good investment.


I'm not sure this is the case. Investment in alternative energies is growing significantly in Canada. Car companies are currently investing tens of billions into electric vehicles. Not just to be green, but because electric cars have many benefits. Electricity is cheaper than gasoline, the cars are quitter, they provide compete torque fro a standstill, there are fewer moving parts.

What I find exciting is how this increased investment results in breakthroughs in other areas such as materials science, superconduction/cryogenics, nanotechnology, electrochemical energy storage, etc.

   



Canadian_Mind @ Fri Apr 08, 2016 11:50 am

Lemmy Lemmy:
Canadian_Mind Canadian_Mind:
Over the years you've begun to show more personal bias. You can't just pull the "I'm a professional, I have no bias" card. Everyone has bias, what matters is how well you supress it in order to seek out the honest truth. Pretty much since the day you had your blow up, left for a bit, and since come back, you seem like a much more openly biased individual than you were before. I don't care if you are biased, we all are. But I do care about how honest you are about your personal bias.

Maybe, but I don't think it's relevant here. It's not like I have a bias that would make me want to overstate the environmental damages associated with an industry and, similarly, understate the consumer benefits of said industry. Especially when we're talking about the oil industry since I'm a muscle car, gear-head sort that loves few things more than burning gasoline!

What is this blow up you're speaking of?

And what sort of bias that you think I'm displaying since my return, (which was from sabbatical to complete a project, btw, and had nothing to do with CKA)?


Of course it's relevant. Everyone has bias and it shows. If you are a muscle car gearhead sort I would have expected you to be a bit more passionate for the pipelines. Good on you. But I think it's a little far-fetched to be saying that pipelines wont pay for themselves. Oil will continue to flow until there is none of it left. Seems like every decade since the 70s there has been talk of peak oil and a slowdown. It just hasn't happened yet.

I recall there being some sort of fuss before you left, and I was under the impression that was the reason why you left. It was upsetting.

The bias I observe is that you seem far more biased towards left wing policies and opinions than you were before. Some things, like the argument for an Energy East Pipeline, I would have expected you to argue in favour of.

Now, nothing wrong with that. Just means I don't understand you as well as I thought I did. Perhaps you've changed over the years. Perhaps I've changed over the years. Maybe it's just that the subject matter changed. Either way, we used to agree on almost everything before and now it seems like we agree on nothing. Time changes everything I guess.

   



PluggyRug @ Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:02 pm

Lemmy Lemmy:
Fail.

I'd could post a list of start up failures in other "new technology" sectors. Nothing surprising. When a new industry starts up, people fail. How many "dot-coms" went tits up in the dawning days of the internet? How many automakers went under in the 1920s? etc, etc...

I could also post a list of resounding business success stories in the "green industries" sector. That list would be hundreds of times longer than the 10 bankruptcies you listed.


Okay do so...

Here's an expanded list of failures.

Bankrupt, closed, acquired

Advent Solar (emitter wrap-through Si) acquired by Applied Materials
Applied Solar (solar roofing) acquired by Quercus Trust
OptiSolar (a-Si on a grand scale) Optisolar’s utility projects acquired by First Solar. Optisolar’s a-Si manufacturing line sold to Novasolar.
Ready Solar (PV installation) acquired by SunEdison
Solasta (nano-coaxial solar) closed
SV Solar (low-concentration PV) closed
Senergen (depositing silane onto free-form metallurgical-grade Si substrates) closed
Signet Solar (a-Si) bankrupt
Sunfilm (a-Si) bankrupt
Wakonda (GaAs) acquired by Siva

2011

Bankrupt, closed

EPV Solar (a-Si) bankrupt
Evergreen (drawn Si) bankrupt
Solyndra (CIGS) bankrupt
SpectraWatt (c-Si) bankrupt
Stirling Energy Systems (dish engine) bankrupt
Acquisition, sale

Ascent Solar (CIGS) acquired by TFG Radiant
Calyxo (CdTe) acquired by Solar Fields from Q-Cells
HelioVolt (CIGS) acquired by Korea's SK Innovation
National Semiconductor Solar Magic (panel optimizers) exited systems business
NetCrystal (silicon on flexible substrate) acquired by Solar Semiconductor
Soliant (CPV) acquired by Emcore

2012

Bankrupt, closed

Abound Solar (CdTe) bankrupt
AQT (CIGS) closed
Ampulse (thin silicon) closed
Arise Technology (PV modules) bankrupt
Azuray (microinverters) closed
BP (c-Si panels) exits solar business
Centrotherm (PV manufacturing equipment) bankrupt and restructured
CSG (c-Si on glass) closed by Suntech
Day4 Energy (cell interconnects) delisted from TSX exchange
ECD (a-Si) bankrupt
Energy Innovations (CPV) bankrupt
Flexcell (a-Si roll-roll BIPV) closed
GlobalWatt (solar) closed
GreenVolts (CPV) closed
G24i (DSCs) bankrupt in 2012, re-emerged as G24i Power with new investors
Hoku (polysilicon) shut down its Idaho polysilicon production facility
Inventux (a-Si) bankrupt
Konarka (OSCs) bankrupt
Odersun (CIGS) bankrupt
Pramac (a-Si panels built with equipment from Oerlikon) insolvent
Pairan (Germany inverters) insolvent
Ralos (developer) bankrupt
REC Wafer (c-Si) bankrupt
Satcon (BoS) bankrupt
Schott (c-Si) exits c-Si business
Schuco (a-Si) shutting down its a-Si business
Sencera (a-Si) closed
Siliken (c-Si modules) closed
Skyline Solar (LCPV) closed
Siemens (CSP, inverters, BOS) divestment from solar
Solar Millennium (developer) insolvent
Solarhybrid (developer) insolvent
Sovello (Q-Cells, Evergreen, REC JV) bankrupt
SolarDay (c-Si modules) insolvent
Solar Power Industries (PV modules) bankrupt
Soltecture (CIGS BIPV) bankrupt
Sun Concept (developer) bankrupt
Acquisition, fire sale, restructuring

Oelmaier (Germany inverters) insolvent, bought by agricultural supplier Lehner Agrar
Q-Cells (c-Si) insolvent, acquired by South Korea's Hanwha
Sharp (a-Si) backing away from a-Si, retiring 160 of its 320 megawatts in Japan
Solibro (CIGS) Q-Cells unit acquired by China's Hanergy
Solon (c-Si) acquired by UAE's Microsol
Scheuten Solar (BIPV) bankrupt, then acquired by Aikosolar
Sunways (c-Si, inverters) bought by LDK, restructuring to focus on BIPV and storage

2013

Bankrupt, closed

Array Converter (Module-level power electronics) bankrupt, IP to VC investor
Avancis (CIGS) discontinuing production
Bosch (c-Si PV module) exits module business
Concentrator Optics (CPV) bankrupt
Cyrium (CPV semiconductors) bankrupt
Direct Grid (microinverters) closed
EiQ (Module-level power electronics) closed
GreenRay (microinverters) closed
Helios Solar (c-Si modules) bankrupt
Hoku Solar (silicon) bankrupt
Honda Soltec (CIGS thin-film modules) closing
Infinia (Stirling engine CSP) bankrupt
Nanosolar (CIGS) closed
Pythagoras Solar (BIPV) closed
Solarion (CIGS) went bankrupt but restructured and in limited production
SolFocus (CPV) bankrupt
Sunsil (module level electronics) closed
Suntech Wuxi (c-Si) bankrupt
Tioga (project developer) closed
Willard & Kelsey (CdTe panels) bankrupt
ZenithSolar (CHP) bankrupt
Acquired

Agile Energy (project developer) acquired by RES Americas
Bosch (c-Si PV module) acquired by SolarWorld
Diehl (Germany inverters) inverter division sold to PE firm mutares AG
Conergy (c-Si module) Astronergy, a part of China's Chint Group, acquired Conergy's PV module group
GE-Primestar (CdTe technology acquired from PrimeStar) acquired by First Solar
Global Solar Energy (CIGS) acquired by Hanergy
Infinia (Stirling engine CSP) assets acquired by Israel's Qnergy
MiaSolé (CIGS) acquired by China's Hanergy
NuvoSun (CIGS) acquired by Dow
Suntech Wuxi (c-Si) acquired by Shunfeng Photovoltaic International for $492 million
Twin Creeks (kerfless Si) IP and other assets acquired by GT Advanced Technology
Wuerth Solar (installer) business turned over to BayWa
Wuerth Solar (CIGS line) taken over by Manz
ZenithSolar (CHP) acquired by Suncore
Watch List

LDK Solar (c-Si) struggling to meet debt payments
Solar Junction (semiconductors for CPV) CEO departure amidst continued efforts to sell the firm

   



herbie @ Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:33 pm

And it doesn't mean shit. No matter how long the list.
Are you trying to use business failures to imply green technology or philosophy is a failure? Look in your own house FFS, the lights, the electronics, your furnace, insulation, appliances, the car you drive. They all use way less energy than they did 25-35 years ago.
Even if you drive an F350 4x4 daily, the damn thing uses half the gasoline and will last twice as long as an F150 from the 1990s.
Damn rights there should be an Energy East pipeline, we'll still use oil 35 years from now and its absurd not to use our own oil in Canada. The big pitch is pipelines to export oil - so they can get better prices from countries that need more oil and not less. And that won't do YOU any good whatsoever, it will increase your costs for gas.
FFS we're going ahead with the Site C dam here in BC, we really don't need it but I'm not marching and going on hunger strikes, its better than building an oil, nuke or coal fired alternative. And one day, we will need the power.
I'm thinking of applying for a position here at a new co-gen plant that's opening soon. Wood waste into electric, shit that used to be burnt or left to rot is now going to provide power and some work here.
Let's try one business not on the list - Ballard. They haven't delivered shit as far as a useable affordable fuel cell in 35 years. Still going though, so are they a failure?

   



REPLY

1  2  3  Next