Canada Kicks Ass
Staggering blow: Delphi's bankruptcy ominous sign

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Toro @ Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:45 pm

Scape Scape:
Buying at WalMart is only going to be good in the long term for China because to them in relation to economies of scale the production of WalMart is like the US auto industries effect on the US during Fords boom days.


What Wal-Mart has done is make the retailing industry more efficient. They flatten the cost of getting the product to the end user. By doing so, they increase the amount that the poor can buy. This increases the standard of living for the poor. Wal-Mart has done more for the poor than virtually any other company.

Scape Scape:
We are not going from an agrarian economy to an industrial one here we are going from an industrial to none. High tech, silicon valley and nano technology, is a bust when it comes to supporting massive amounts of jobs and job growth has grown but regressed back to the service sector.


Of course we are moving towards a knowledge-based economy. We have been for centuries. Economic history is the application of new technology, from the farm to the factory to the knowledge-based economy. Its all about technical improvement. Manufacturing is merely the physical embodiement of technology. Machines allow things to be made more efficiently. There is nothing magical about manufacturing. Now, the application of technology is moving away from machines.

Scape Scape:
Wages have indeed gone up but have never kept up with inflation so its a shell game your presenting.


The statistics I have posted are real, after-inflation numbers. Wages are rising after inflation.

Scape Scape:
The American economy is losing the all too important initiative and it will be more than a simple recession.


America is the engine of global growth. Europe and Japan are too weak to drive the global economy, though hopefully that will change. That doesn't mean there aren't imbalances or things to be worried about, because there are. But America is far more dynamic than either Japan or Europe as there are structural issues in those countries which make it difficult to grow, as we've seen over the past 10-15 years.

Scape Scape:
The manufacturing base reflects the ability of an economy to rebuild, without it what is to stop the entire economy from collapsing?


Why would it? Manufacturing jobs have been declining for decades, and will continue to do so in the future. It is the application of technology that brings real economic growth and wealth. People who make this argument IMO fail to understand what drives economic growth and wealth creation. Protecting industries that are inefficient and no longer economic destroys wealth, not creates it It means people are allocating more to inefficient industries that they could buy elsewhere cheaper and have less to spend on other goods and services.

Scape Scape:
In real terms what this means is the current manufacturing base can really only support the 1958 level of total jobs or 51,426. That is the scale of the initial correction we are looking at here and globalization is only slowing down this process but it can't stop it and there is a serious lag and that lag will come in a form of a correction that could rupture the economy.


To focus on manufacturing as the key to growth and wealth fails to comprehend the nature of the economy. And I do not understand how the 1958 level of jobs is relevant to today.

   



Toro @ Wed Oct 19, 2005 6:10 pm

Avro Avro:
Ho-Ha?

I don't think so daddy-o, tell me old wise one what is 2.1 % of minimum wage? Your numbers prove nothing you just think they do.

How do you get your head through doors?

You care little for the human factor and more about the numbers and your numbers sir do nothing to help a 50 year old guy who just got laid off from a decent manufacturing job while trying to pay for a morgage and food for the supper table.

If you want to be a prick about it.....bring it on ya right wing fuck face!!

BTW...Walmart has done more for the poor? Costco has done more my ignorant little friend by doing the unthinkable paying the employees more and making their stores more efficient in that process. Look it up ya right wing prick it's all right there for you not to see.

Now go kick a beggar on the street ya soft handed fagget. :wink:


I'd never kick you on the street Avro!

And such homophobic, hateful language! I'm sure the gay members of this forum are appalled. If I were gay, I know I'd be. Not at your silly behavior, mind you. But rather at your inability to correctly spell your homophobic slurs properly. Tsk, tsk.

What's great about the Far Lefties is that, no matter how much data you present to them contradicting their funny theories, with a wave of their collective hands, they blithely dismiss it with quaint anecdotes and accuse you of being heartless. Dogma is so much more comforting than data, is it not?

Wages have been rising. Jobs have been rising. Wealth has been rising. Have been for a long, long time. You can deny it until you are blue in the face, but the data dismisses you. But of course, you know that. That's why you say "your numbers prove nothing."

I hope you have a wonderful evening Avro.

   



Scape @ Thu Oct 20, 2005 2:09 am

Avro, Decaf.

All this talk has been centered upon the retailing industry becoming more efficient via the powers of slave labour. So I concede the point that this has created a lot of work for the poor and that slaves are poor but slaves are not free. Your assumptions of the 'flattening' of costs is based upon the idea that China is stable I wish that was true. China's superheated economy is in danger of breaking down and rampant corruption is speeding it along. Throwing good money after bad is Wal-mart by fueling this inferno of growth.

$1:
The so-called “economy being over-heated” is due to an extremely inefficient use of investment and corrupt practices. Why there are too many wasted investments? It is because the communist government is involved in those investments. And we know this government usually does not care about cost-benefit analysis. Furthermore the Communist party has no monitor, no check-balance system.


We are indeed moving towards a knowledge-based economy but our economy is still based upon economies of scale that are still based upon the industrial era. Now the jobs of the industrial era have changed and the numbers will shrink as we become more effective but we still need X amount of people to buy Y amount of goods to keep that economy growing. A static economy is a dead one and with a shrinking workforce via modernization and outsourcing, more jobs have to replace the ones lost. The solution to date is to bring cheap labour in (illegal immigrants via Mexico and factory sweat shops in China and India) and thus we have become dependent upon economies that are not at all stable themselves and rife with corruption.
Toro Toro:
Its all about technical improvement. Manufacturing is merely the physical embodiement of technology. Machines allow things to be made more efficiently.

Machines don't need healthcare, raise a family, need schools and a justice system. Machines serve society but they should never be mistaken for society because they can never have a stake in it. Manufacturing is the heart of any economy like the eye wall is the heart of a hurricane. It need not be huge but without it the economy simply can not exist.
Toro Toro:
The statistics I have posted are real, after-inflation numbers. Wages are rising after inflation.

The real, after-inflation numbers you have presented are based in the US in US dollars but the greenback has dropped. Since 2002 the dollar has dropped 38% vs the Euro, 23% vs the Yen and 25% vs the Canadian dollar. America WAS the engine of global growth but it simply is not the center of mass anymore.

Toro Toro:
Protecting industries that are inefficient and no longer economic destroys wealth, not creates it It means people are allocating more to inefficient industries that they could buy elsewhere cheaper and have less to spend on other goods and services.


True! So why are we investing in refurbished slave labour in a country on the other side of the planet? Making goods in the domestic market that is directly sold to is more efficient as it saves on transportation, supports job in the local economy and creates brand loyalty that is far more lasting. A homogeneous economy is a stable one, an outsourced one is inherently unstable and reliant upon an unsustainable growth curve.

Toro Toro:
To focus on manufacturing as the key to growth and wealth fails to comprehend the nature of the economy. And I do not understand how the 1958 level of jobs is relevant to today.


Why not compare the manufacturing job growth and GDP growth in China to that of the US then? We both know manufacturing jobs and GDP growth have gone through the roof. You can just look at the sale of stocks in scrap metal companies that deal with China and how every one has skyrocketed in net worth. Again, manufacturing is the heart of an economy and we are foolish to do without it. We can augment it and improve upon it but to replace and outsource it is a fools errand.

Holy Shit! The skyrocketing cost of fertilizer.

In the early 1990's fertilizer cost $200/tonne, this year the price is $410/tonne. The increase in fertilizer prices is a reflection of the methods used to generate the ammonia and nitrates they contain. The ingredients of the fertilizer are extracted via natural gas which has skyrocketted in price along with oil. These increases in fertilizer prices for farmers will eventually be passed on to the consumer via higher prices for all food. So where are the more efficient industries your talking about Toro? Don't we still have to eat?

   



Toro @ Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:56 am

Scape Scape:
All this talk has been centered upon the retailing industry becoming more efficient via the powers of slave labour. So I concede the point that this has created a lot of work for the poor and that slaves are poor but slaves are not free. Your assumptions of the 'flattening' of costs is based upon the idea that China is stable I wish that was true. China's superheated economy is in danger of breaking down and rampant corruption is speeding it along. Throwing good money after bad is Wal-mart by fueling this inferno of growth.
$1:
The so-called “economy being over-heated” is due to an extremely inefficient use of investment and corrupt practices. Why there are too many wasted investments? It is because the communist government is involved in those investments. And we know this government usually does not care about cost-benefit analysis. Furthermore the Communist party has no monitor, no check-balance system.


There is no question about it Scape , the Chinese economy is overheated IMHO, and has more than its fair share of corruption. But its a developing economy, and all developing economies go through growing pains. Canada and the US were no different in their infancy. Both experience wild booms and busts in the 19th and 20th century. China will too.

BTW, there is a World Bank study - which I cannot link - which measured the growth in real income per capita in China. Between 1980 and 2000, real income per capita rose 440% in total. So to say that its because of "slave labour" isn't accurate.

Scape Scape:
We are indeed moving towards a knowledge-based economy but our economy is still based upon economies of scale that are still based upon the industrial era. Now the jobs of the industrial era have changed and the numbers will shrink as we become more effective but we still need X amount of people to buy Y amount of goods to keep that economy growing. A static economy is a dead one and with a shrinking workforce via modernization and outsourcing, more jobs have to replace the ones lost. The solution to date is to bring cheap labour in (illegal immigrants via Mexico and factory sweat shops in China and India) and thus we have become dependent upon economies that are not at all stable themselves and rife with corruption.


But the economy is not static Scape. The economy is growing. Jobs have been growing. Wages have been growing. Economies will have recessions but these trends are long-term trends, and have been happening for decades. If the West wants to continue to have a manufacturing base, it must be at the very high end.

Roughly 10% of the US GDP comes from exports. Of that, less than half comes from the non-industrialized world. And of that, roughly half comes from China. So its an exageration to say that the US economy is dependent on what happens in China.

Scape Scape:
Machines don't need healthcare, raise a family, need schools and a justice system. Machines serve society but they should never be mistaken for society because they can never have a stake in it. Manufacturing is the heart of any economy like the eye wall is the heart of a hurricane. It need not be huge but without it the economy simply can not exist.


Why? What evidence do you have of this? Especially since the evidence runs contrary to what you are arguing.

Scape Scape:
The real, after-inflation numbers you have presented are based in the US in US dollars but the greenback has dropped. Since 2002 the dollar has dropped 38% vs the Euro, 23% vs the Yen and 25% vs the Canadian dollar. America WAS the engine of global growth but it simply is not the center of mass anymore.


Scape, changes in exchange rates are reflected in imported goods, and prices will rise for those goods when the exporting country's currency strengthens against the dollar. Thus, the changes in exchange rates are incorporated in those numbers.

Scape Scape:
True! So why are we investing in refurbished slave labour in a country on the other side of the planet? Making goods in the domestic market that is directly sold to is more efficient as it saves on transportation, supports job in the local economy and creates brand loyalty that is far more lasting. A homogeneous economy is a stable one, an outsourced one is inherently unstable and reliant upon an unsustainable growth curve.


Why?

Scape Scape:
Why not compare the manufacturing job growth and GDP growth in China to that of the US then? We both know manufacturing jobs and GDP growth have gone through the roof. You can just look at the sale of stocks in scrap metal companies that deal with China and how every one has skyrocketed in net worth. Again, manufacturing is the heart of an economy and we are foolish to do without it. We can augment it and improve upon it but to replace and outsource it is a fools errand.


Why is manufacturing the heart of the economy? In the US, the traditional manufacturing base has been in the northeast, which has lagged the rest of the country in terms of growth.

Manufacturing is no longer the heart of the economy. It hasn't been for a long time. This transition has been natural and gradual. To fight it is pointless. If the West wants a manufacturing base, it has to lower costs or it has to improve products.

   



Jaime_Souviens @ Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:42 am

Toro Toro:
Scape Scape:
...


I love a battle between a Capitalist and a Leftist.

Of course, the Capitalist is usually involved in the economy and can talk from experience, and the Leftist has knowledge from the classroom, and naturally little from direct experience because committed Leftists seldom set up capitalist enterprises.

But the best thing about it, is that long term, the Capitalist ends his career wealthy, proving his theories, and the Leftist ends his career in threadbare academic tweeds, also proving the Capitalist's theories.

   



Toro @ Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:30 am

Ah, Scape's a pretty good guy. Intelligent too. Just a little misguided, that's all. :wink:

Now about that Avro fellow...
(just kidding.)

   



PluggyRug @ Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:47 am

'The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries'

Sir Winston Churchill

   



Toro @ Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:19 pm

Avro Avro:
That's it Toro, present nothing then run away....no surprise at all. :roll:


I haven't seen you present any facts or make a cogent argument here.

You want to argue about which company is better Wal-Mart or Costco? You say Costco, fine, its Costco. Frankly, in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter a whole lot.

I've presented the data. Here it is again.

Toro Toro:
Total manufacturing employment in the United States

1980 18,733,000
2004 14,329,000

A decline of 23.5%.

Total employed in the United States

1980 90,528.000
2004 131,840,000

An increase of 45.6%

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.ceseeb1.txt

So, all those wonderful manufacturing jobs are being replaced by low-paying McDonald's jobs, are they? Well, if that's the case, wages must be falling, right?

Real per capita wage growth.

1930s 0.4%
1940s 4.3%
1950s 2.5%
1960s 3.3%
1970s 1.4%
1980s 1.7%
1990s 2.0%
2000s 0.6%
Total 2.1%

Looked at another way

1935-1944 9.3%
1945-1954 -0.5%
1955-1964 1.9%
1965-1974 2.7%
1975-1984 1.1%
1985-1994 1.6%
1995-2004 2.1%

or

1945-1974 1.4%
1975-2004 1.6%

or

1980-2004 1.7%

http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/IndexW.htm#W - Wages and salary disbursements, Table 2.1
http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/IndexW.htm#W- Price indexes, Table 1.1.4
http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/IndexW.htm#W - Population Growth, Table 7.1


And what do you say?

Avro Avro:
Your numbers prove nothing you just think they do.


What special knowledge do you have to dismiss this data?

So sorry to present hard, factual evidence that sends your worldview crashing to the ground.

You disagree, back it up. Show me the data. Walk the tallk. Don't run away and spend half your time calling others names. At least make an intelligent argument like Scape's doing.

   



Motorcycleboy @ Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:49 pm

Earlier, Toro challenged Avro to address an apparent contradiction in his reasoning with this;

Toro Toro:
Avro, my man, I look forward to you arguing why the softwood tariffs are a good thing. After all, the reason why America has them is for protectionism.

HO-HA! Y'all are about to get an Internet, beat-down Avro. You's in my house now!


Avro, articulate as always, responded with this;

$1:
Avro Wrote: Look it up ya right wing prick it's all right there for you not to see.

Now go kick a beggar on the street ya soft handed fagget.


I was looking forward to an intelligent response from Avro on this one, because although I lean more towards Toro's take on these matters, I have to admit I'm more than a little uncomfortable with our dimishing manufacturing industry and trade deficit with China/India.

I guess I'll have to figure it out on my own without any intelligent input from Avro though. At least Scape and Toro are on the ball.

   



Toro @ Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:58 pm

Motorcycle

Though I'm not concerned about our manufacturing capacity, I have been very concerned about the trade deficit. But the trade deficit is a function of abnormally low interest rates and the budget deficit - both of which are controllable by the US government - and slow growth elsewhere in the industrialized world - which is not controllable by the US government. De-industrialization is happening everywhere in the West. Trade deficits have nothing, or little, to do with it.

   



Motorcycleboy @ Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:03 pm

$1:
Toro Wrote:
But the trade deficit is a function of abnormally low interest rates and the budget deficit


How does the budget deficit affect the trade deficit?

   



Toro @ Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:10 pm

Motorcycleboy Motorcycleboy:
$1:
Toro Wrote:
But the trade deficit is a function of abnormally low interest rates and the budget deficit


How does the budget deficit affect the trade deficit?


The budget deficit increases aggregate demand, including demand for imports. If foreign countries do not grow as fast, then there is less relative demand overseas for exports. Because there is more demand for imports but not as much incremental demand for exports, the trade deficit widens.

   



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