Canada Kicks Ass
Staggering blow: Delphi's bankruptcy ominous sign

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Scape @ Mon Oct 10, 2005 3:01 pm

[web]http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0510/10/A01-341885.htm[/web]

Morgan Stanley:Delphi’s bankruptcy is a big deal

$1:
It is emblematic of a new set of pressures bearing down on the US. The global rebalancing framework that I continue to embrace suggests that the world's growth and asset return dynamic has only just begun a major tilt away from the US and dollar-based assets. If that's the case, America will have little to offer in a low-return world for risk-averse and yield-hungry investors. Could Delphi be the long awaited wake-up call that drives this realization home?

   



Toro @ Mon Oct 17, 2005 7:46 pm

$1:
The global rebalancing framework that I continue to embrace suggests that the world's growth and asset return dynamic has only just begun a major tilt away from the US and dollar-based assets. If that's the case, America will have little to offer in a low-return world for risk-averse and yield-hungry investors.


I'm not so sure about this anymore. I've been very bearish on US-dollar assets for several years now, but I'm beginning to think that maybe I should start selling down my gold positions a bit. The Federal Reserve has been very steadfast in raising US interest rates and aren't done yet. Short rates are moving to 4.5% or more, higher than pretty much anywhere in the industrialized world, and almost as high, if not higher, than most industrialized nations' long-term government bonds.

Also, investors are beginning to throw away the bank stocks, as they usually do when the yield curve flattens. Citigroup announced they bought back $5 billion of their stock this quarter - 3% of their shares outstanding - and the market shrugged. A few weeks back, Wachovia announced they would buy back 10% of their capital stock over the next 2 years. That's massive. Both companies have a 4%+ dividend yield, near the 10 year T-Bond. US financials may be getting very interesting here. And if US banks start outperforming, capital will be flowing into the country,

   



Scape @ Tue Oct 18, 2005 2:57 am

GM to cut 25000 jobs

I remember that you said something along the lines that the workers enjoyed an overly rich health care package and benefits. Do you know how much the workers were paying in dues to create it?

   



Toro @ Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:22 am

Well, they had a pretty good union I guess, but now the liabilities are, at least in part, putting the company on the brink of bankruptcy.

GM's balance sheet. $81 billion in accrued and other expenses, mainly healthcare. Pensions, $40 billion. Shareholders equity, $25 billion.

   



BartSimpson @ Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:29 am

The whole thing makes a case for protectionism.

"Free Trade" really isn't, and all the free trade in the world isn't worth a bucket of warm spit if you lose your job to some guy in Thailand who makes $.75 an hour.

   



Scape @ Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:42 pm

This is happening industry wide from Northwest and Delta airlines to the auto industry. The hallmarks of American standard of living are under assault. This will have to have an effect on the standard of living upon the entire US and the world economy. Something will have to give as more is shipped overseas. If blue collar Americans don't make a stand soon there will soon be nothing left to stand for.

Speaking of blue collar, nice avatar Bart it suits you.

   



Toro @ Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:44 pm

BartSimpson BartSimpson:
The whole thing makes a case for protectionism.

"Free Trade" really isn't, and all the free trade in the world isn't worth a bucket of warm spit if you lose your job to some guy in Thailand who makes $.75 an hour.


If that's the case, then we'd all still by driving horse-drawn carriages and sitting by kerosene lamps in an effort to "protect" those jobs.

Protectionism destroys jobs and wealth by protecting jobs that are no longer economical to the cost of everyone else.

   



Jaime_Souviens @ Tue Oct 18, 2005 4:49 pm

Scape Scape:
This is happening industry wide from Northwest and Delta airlines to the auto industry. The hallmarks of American standard of living are under assault.


They've always been under assault and always will be.

What you've never understood is that it is this constant 'taking' from the American economy that a) forces the American economy to perform, and b) provides the basis for third-world economies acround the planet.

It's a good thing.

Scape Scape:
This will have to have an effect on the standard of living upon the entire US and the world economy. Something will have to give as more is shipped overseas. If blue collar Americans don't make a stand soon there will soon be nothing left to stand for.


Yeah, everyone can stand in picket lines and sing Pete Seeger songs, or perhaps another round of the Internationale.

Your economic thinking is out of the 1930's.

   



Toro @ Tue Oct 18, 2005 4:56 pm

Avro, my man, I look forward to you arguing why the softwood tariffs are a good thing. After all, the reason why America has them is for protectionism.

HO-HA! Y'all are about to get an Internet, beat-down Avro. You's in my house now!

   



Toro @ Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:21 pm

Avro Avro:
Oh wait Bort you have to understand that the way Toro thinks is that those manufacturing jobs will be replaced by high tech jobs but to me there are a few flaws with this thinking.

- The majority of jobs actually replacing manufacturing ones are low paying service sector jobs.
-Believe it or not some people are not currently capable of preforming high tech jobs.
-What happens when low paid foreign workers are better educated than us, certainly Toro wouldn't suggest massive investment in public and university education.....would he?

This is a slippery slope we go down and to me is a race to the bottom. Toro will only find fault with it if his own job was in jeopardy of being offshored....which is possible.



The best work to get into right now would be an unexportable trade like plumbing or electrician, or perhaps the fastest growing one.....janitor. :D


In my world, my job is in jeopardy every day if I don't perform. But fortunately, perform I do, to the great benefit of the many, many who reap the rewards of my vast, razor-sharp abilites.

Avro claims that "The majority of jobs actually replacing manufacturing ones are low paying service sector jobs." Well, if that were the case then wages would be falling, wouldn't they?

Is that the case? Of course not!

Even though manufacturing employment has been falling, wages have been rising.

Raw US data, with a little bit of math. (Take your socks off Lefties! Its countin' time!)

Total manufacturing employment in the United States

1980 18,733,000
2004 14,329,000

A decline of 23.5%.

Total employed in the United States

1980 90,528.000
2004 131,840,000

An increase of 45.6%

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.ceseeb1.txt

So, all those wonderful manufacturing jobs are being replaced by low-paying McDonald's jobs, are they? Well, if that's the case, wages must be falling, right?

Real per capita wage growth.

1930s 0.4%
1940s 4.3%
1950s 2.5%
1960s 3.3%
1970s 1.4%
1980s 1.7%
1990s 2.0%
2000s 0.6%
Total 2.1%

Looked at another way

1935-1944 9.3%
1945-1954 -0.5%
1955-1964 1.9%
1965-1974 2.7%
1975-1984 1.1%
1985-1994 1.6%
1995-2004 2.1%

or

1945-1974 1.4%
1975-2004 1.6%

or

1980-2004 1.7%

http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/IndexW.htm#W - Wages and salary disbursements, Table 2.1
http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/IndexW.htm#W- Price indexes, Table 1.1.4
http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/IndexW.htm#W - Population Growth, Table 7.1

So wages have been rising while manufacturing jobs have been falling.

HO-HA!

Score one for Toro!

Ooooh, that's gotta hurt. Ideological dogma flattened by the data.

What the Lefties fail to understand is that its not a race to the bottom. Its a race to the top!

Lefties.

   



Scape @ Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:38 am

Toro Toro:

Real per capita wage growth.

1930s 0.4%
1940s 4.3%
1950s 2.5%
1960s 3.3%
1970s 1.4%
1980s 1.7%
1990s 2.0%
2000s 0.6%
Total 2.1%

Looked at another way

1935-1944 9.3%
1945-1954 -0.5%
1955-1964 1.9%
1965-1974 2.7%
1975-1984 1.1%
1985-1994 1.6%
1995-2004 2.1%

or

1945-1974 1.4%
1975-2004 1.6%

or

1980-2004 1.7%


Inflation:Producer price surge biggest in 15 years

$1:
U.S. producer prices shot up by an unexpectedly large 1.9 percent last month, the biggest gain in more than 15 years, as energy costs surged in the wake of hurricanes that devastated the U.S. Gulf Coast, a government report showed on Tuesday.


So 25 years growth is gone in 1 hurricane season, nice. Did you compare 1980 to 1955?
-------Total Manufacturing
1955 50,744 15,524
1980 90,528 18,733

Quick, what was inflation during this period?

Bloomberg:U.S. Consumer Spending May Slump in a `Cold, Dark' Winter

Slumpflation means treading water isn't going to be good enough.

Gold at 18 year high Ergo fiat currencies are at 18 year low.

What was it Ford preached? Pay the labour a wage so they can afford your products. What are they going to afford working at Wal-mart?
$1:
Oh it starts with sweatshop labor in a foreign factory,
And it gets packed on a vessel and shipped over the sea,
It’s loaded onto trailers and it’s spread accross the map,
Big Box Mart is the place I go to buy all of my crap…

The next day at the factory, the news was very grim,
My job was being outsourced to the slums of East Beijing,
Management was streamlining the company’s org chart,
We’ve gotta make crap cheap enough to sell to Big Box Mart.

Oh Big Box Mart, look what you’ve done to me,
He’s gotta start all over now, at the age of 53…

Oh Big Box Mart, my paycheck reminds me,
Your everyday low prices have a price, they aren’t free.

   



Toro @ Wed Oct 19, 2005 4:13 am

Scape

Wages have been rising despite manufacturing falling. That's the whole point. People can afford to shop at Wal-Mart.

Besides, there is nothing magical about manufacturing. During the transition from the agarian economy to the industrial one 200 years ago, people lamented the loss of jobs on the farm to the "demon factories", and that people would starve because there would be less food harvested. Now today, people think that because service jobs are replacing manufacturing jobs, the economy is somehow "losing". That is wrong too, and the data bear it out.

As for the other statistics you posted, inflation is rising, interest rates are rising, there is too much consumer debt, and I believe the economy is going to slow. And maybe we'll have a recession, perhaps a sharp one, which will re-calibrate some of the excesses. Then the economy start growing again, like it always has.

   



Scape @ Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:53 pm

Buying at WalMart is only going to be good in the long term for China because to them in relation to economies of scale the production of WalMart is like the US auto industries effect on the US during Fords boom days.

Being able to afford WalMart prices to US citizens is a step down not up to US consumers and like the jingle said "Oh Big Box Mart, look what you’ve done to me, He’s gotta start all over now, at the age of 53" We are not going from an agrarian economy to an industrial one here we are going from an industrial to none. High tech, silicon valley and nano technology, is a bust when it comes to supporting massive amounts of jobs and job growth has grown but regressed back to the service sector. Wages have indeed gone up but have never kept up with inflation so its a shell game your presenting. The American economy is losing the all too important initiative and it will be more than a simple recession. The manufacturing base reflects the ability of an economy to rebuild, without it what is to stop the entire economy from collapsing?

In real terms what this means is the current manufacturing base can really only support the 1958 level of total jobs or 51,426. That is the scale of the initial correction we are looking at here and globalization is only slowing down this process but it can't stop it and there is a serious lag and that lag will come in a form of a correction that could rupture the economy.

   



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