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Oh I think they'll be worrying........

   

That three out of four is very touchy. What had been a close win for
them last time in Saskatchewan was a huge victory for the CPC with
nearly half of the vote. [Keeping Orchard out in Sask. may have been
a mistake but then everyhting Orchard touches seems to turn to crap.]

In Vancouver where the Liberals won big last time, they survived by
about 150 votes. The NDP was decimated in all four places.

The knives are being sharpened for Dion.

   

Oh no. Logic: The liberals arch nemesis!I'd like to see an answer to this but they'll just dither and spin some bs excuse.

Just a side question though. Weren't most of these seats vacated by Liberals who ar e retiring? If so, why are so many Liberals retiring at this time? I know a lot were fed up with Dion's switch on Chretien's war, but maybe their getting out before the real ADSCAM investigations begin.
Keep up the good work, Stephi.

   

i agree they will be worrying for sure , especially about there BC seats .

there is no comfort for dion in these results as liberals allready have most of the toronto seats anyways . they need to gain seats somewhere else , but during his time as leader they keep losing seats they had won previously .

( outremont by-election, thunder bay - superior joe comuzzi joining cpc , mississauga streetsvile wajid khan joining cpc , churchill river by-election , lucienne robillard mp westmount ville marie left ) plus there is like a dozen liberal mp's who plan on retiring beofre next election .

   

Come on DerbyX.

Toronto to the Liberal Party is as Alberta is to the Conservative Party.

Toronto would vote Liberal with a untrained monkey as the Lib candidate.

The fact we made huge strides in Vancouver is huge. We took a what was a 12,000 vote lead for the Lib in 2006, and corroded it too 150 vote spread in this by-election.

Thats a failure for Dion.

And are aboriginals your typical Tories? hardly! They lean left usually.

And the Sask riding WAS a swing riding. Its been NDP, Liberal, Independent, and Conservative, it wasn't a "typical rural Tory riding".

Wake up

   

Also there were mentions that the conservatives can't win seats in urban area. Quebec city perhaps? And Ottawa has a conservative mayor.

The political balance is swinging slowly.


I had a talk with my sociology teacher about the election (she's a mid-left feminist so we always get good debates) and she told me that the only good news were that Liberals won by a large margin in Toronto.

A worker for the liberal party who attends my classes also mentioned that it was a liberal defeat.

Derby, who cares what the article under the data is? The Strategic Counsel is one of the most respected Canadian polling agency. Their data matches what other agencies have shown (CROP) and hopefully the study I am doing as a semester project will support it too (I say hopefully because if the data is somewhat similar it will mean I did it well).

Derby your comments are irrational. You base yourself on things like 'you guys like bad people' to make arguments.

We are talking about raw numbers.

Liberals had 4 seats, they now have three. Is this going up, staying the same, or going down? Yes it is going down. Usually when you're going down, you're losing? Yes you are.

   

i know the media's coverage of these by-elections was pathetic , most major news papers didn't even bother to but a picture of new conservative mp robert clarke in today's paper. only show rae and martha hall findlay .
the liberals winning in toronto would be like stephen harper winning his seat in calgary , its such a strong seat the win would mean little .


there whole coverage of the by-election was pathetic but the win in churchill river and close race in vancouver quadra shows the public did not buy into there bs .

   

DerbyX, their are Conservative M.P.s in:

Lower Mainland region (Van-B.C.)
Calgary
Edmonton
Regina
Saskatoon
Winnipeg
Ottawa
Quebec City
Halifax
St. John's

Are these places not urban?!?

Toronto is Liberal Central, but the fact is support for the Conservatives is climbing in Vancouver, and Winnipeg too.

Take your blinders off! And yes, I will admit when my party is wrong or has had a defeat. 1993 WIPE OUT. In 2002, when the Alliance was fracturing to the PCs and Democratic National Coalition (DNC) the Centre-right was defeated.

Even my Liberal History teacher today admitted it was a loss for the Liberals.

   

I think too many are drawing too many conclusions from such little data. How does Voter Turnout usually occur during By-elections? How do these By-elections compare to others? What do Opinion Polls say in the various Ridings? Many other variables beyond just 3/4 or close calls.

The current Liberals are only in trouble if "trouble" means failure to produce a Majority Government. Kind of the same boat the Conservatives are in.

   

we should find a monkey go down to toronto and ask people if they would vote for it , if it were the liberal candidate vs a consrvative candidate . i bet the results would be surprising and the liberals would win .

   

Actually the title stating that the Liberals won 3 ridings is kind a of... excuse my english horse shit.

These 4 ridings were liberal ridings to begin with and they "retained" 3 lost one and nearly lost a typically strong liberal ridning in Vancouver <----- can you hear the cockpit voice ?....."altitude,altitude,altitude,"

If anything this is an indication of a liberal downward spiral and a derfintie Conservative win if you look at the big picture. Its a sure sign that if an election were held tomorrow a good chance of a Consevative majority would happen.

   

Yep, more and more everyday I am predicting a Conservative Majority next election.

There will be an automatic recount in Vancouver Quadra, which will be nice to drag it out a bit.

But seriously, I can't understand the deluded reaction by hardcore Liberal Partisans.

These ridings were all elected Liberal in 2006. Anything short of a sweep is a Liberal *loss*.

Here is a break down for the Liberal Partisans who can't get their rose-coloured glasses off and see the light.

Vancouver Quadra

This riding was considered a "Liberal Stronghold". You have a University campus, and a wealthy region, your typical characteristics for a "Liberal Stronghold".

This is a loss for the Liberals! Even though they squeeked out this riding is no longer a "Liberal stronghold", its now a competitive Conservative/Liberal swing riding.

Look at previous elections! They have had a Liberal M.P. for 24 years (since 1984) and look from 2004 to present:

2004

Stephen Owen (Liberal) - 29,187 - 52.43%
Stephen Rogers (Conservative) - 14,648 - 26.31%
-----------------------------------------------
14,539 votes dividing them, with a 26.12% spread between them

2006

Stephen Owen (Liberal) - 28,285 - 48.84%
Stephen Rogers (Conservative) - 16,844 - 29.09%
-----------------------------------------------
11,441 votes dividing them, with a 19.75% spread between them

2008 - March 17th, By-election

Joyce Murray (Liberal) - 10,155 - 36.05%
Deborah Meredith (Conservative) - 10,004 - 35.52%
----------------------------------------------------
151 votes dividing them, with a 0.53% spread between them

Now tell me, what does that say for Tories making inroads in urban areas? Hmm. Face it thats a stunning blow, and a moral (not technical) defeat.

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River

Now to put the partisan rhetoric that this is a "typical rural Tory riding to rest, let me go through this":

1997: NDP
2000: Liberal
2004: Conservative
2006: Liberal

This riding is in the North, and is very aboriginal, again not your typical characteristics of a safe Tory riding. It is a swing seat.

Because of Dion's lack of leadership abilities, and circumventing the local riding electoral district association democratic process, he cause Joan Beatty to lose, and the Tories got a very concrete win of 47%-31%.

Toronto Centre

Non-issue. You got a high profile, former Premier, candidate like Bob Rae, and mixed into a downtown Toronto Liberal Stronghold, your gonna have a blow out for them.

Willowdale

Ditto with Willowdale. But Harquail of the Conservatives managed to maintain the Conservative popular vote (compared to 2006) when up against a start candidate like Hall-Findlay.

-------------

So "win" or "victory" is a sad mistake. Face it. LIBERAL LOSS

   

I am kinda of suprised, wait no .... Actually I'm not suprised they put Rae in there considering his history during the Rae days, nearly bankrupting the province, placing a moratorium on white penises from applying to the fire/police dept. etc. etc. etc.

   

Graham Richardson analysis from CTV Newsnet:

"They (the Liberals) barely won Vancouver Quadra...thats like the Conservatives barely winning a Southern Alberta riding"

Spot on!

Liberal Moral defeat! You'll see the Liberals put on this fake "we did good!" thing to the media, but in private you know their not happy.

   

The main difference is that the Sikh activists brought with them, in Canada, an Indian conflict whereas, Natives have never been able to stop Canadians from bringing with them, on their territory, the European conflicts.

   

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