Warming may bring mass extinctions: study
N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:
But first a recap on what led us here.
* I believe it was Bart Simpson made a statement based on something that's being said a lot in recent publications. There has been no warming since 1998.
* You then pooh poohed that statement and quoted an article from the NASA site based on data from James Hansen contradicting that information.
No, I provided documetnary evidence to refute his claim. That is hardly pooh-poohing.
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* I then asked the questions -
Isn't that article from 2006?
Haven't new findings come out since then?
Wasn't the poster of the data, James Hansen, disgraced for providing false data?
Didn't (I think it was the Hadley institute, and the NAS) post data showing no warming since 1998?
* You replied, "no, no, no, and no.
Which was not a question for question "no" but an emphatic denial that the NASA error pointed out by Stephen McIntyre changed the worldwide listing of hottest years--which I stand by.
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Have there been new findings?
In general the answer is most certainly yes. New findings come out all the time. In fact, even in April of 2006, 60 scientists who had input on the original Kyoto wrote Prime Minister Harper a letter saying, "If, back in the mid-1990s, we knew what we know today about climate, Kyoto would almost certainly not exist, because we would have concluded it was not necessary."
OK, this is just sheer semantical fuckery. I assumed that your question about new findings related to the matter we were discussing (the NASA article), not some extraneous critique of Canada's Kyoto policy. That has nothing to do with James Hansen, surface temperature datasets or the article I referenced.
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But more specifically have there been findings since the January 2006 NASA article on James Hansen's findings.
Here's something from Bob Carter, an environmental scientist at James Cook University.
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The salient facts are these. First, the accepted global average temperature statistics used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that no ground-based warming has occurred since 1998. Oddly, this eight-year-long temperature stasis has occurred despite an increase over the same period of 15 parts per million (or 4 per cent) in atmospheric CO2.
Second, lower atmosphere satellite-based temperature measurements, if corrected for non-greenhouse influences such as El Nino events and large volcanic eruptions, show little if any global warming since 1979, a period over which atmospheric CO2 has increased by 55 ppm (17 per cent).
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/stor ... 97,00.htmlAmerican Senator James Inhoefe says the NY Times has quoted the same data.
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* 1) Recent climate changes on Earth lie well within the bounds of natural climate variability - even the New York Times concedes this. UN temperature data show that the late 20th century phase of global warming ended in 1998; new data for the Southern Hemisphere show that a slight cooling is underway there.
Bob Carter quotes another source for the data here -
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Consider the simple fact, drawn from the official temperature records of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, that for the years 1998-2005 global average temperature did not increase (there was actually a slight decrease, though not at a rate that differs significantly from zero).
OK, so based on that information, and other stuff I've seen, but couldn't find with a quick search I'm going to answer the question, "Haven't new findings come out since then?". It is not "no". It is in fact yes.
Yes, using your method where a "new finding" can be an Ethiopian goat finding a new patch of grass, there have been new findings. Have there been any relevant findings that would change 2005 from being the wamrest year in the last century or so? I don't think so.
I did not see you provide the the IPCC link indicateing that there has been "no ground-based warming" since 1998. I checked the techincal summary of the latest IPCC report (
available here) and they state that:
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2005 and 1998 were the warmest two years in the instrumental global surface air temperature record since 1850. Surface temperatures in 1998 were enhanced by the major 1997–1998 El Niño but no such strong anomaly was present in 2005. Eleven of the last 12 years (1995 to 2006) – the exception being 1996 – rank among the 12 warmest years on record since 1850.
Figure TS.6 clearly shows warming after 1998, though I can't link the graphic, as it is a in a pdf file. Based on this I have a hard time believeing Mr. Carter's claims. And again, the arbitrary selection of 1998 is clasic cherry picking, since a local maximum would be expected ina strong El Nino year.
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The answer to the question, "Didn't (I think it was the Hadley institute, and the NAS) post data showing no warming since 1998?" is yes, but with qualifications, I forgot to check those two sources of the data, but if the IPCC, and Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia reproduce the data that's good enough for me. Data does exist showing no warming since 1998.
Based on the above, I don't buy that the IPCC shows no warming since 1998. I don't know about East Anglia--you provided no reference.
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In conclusion after researching your answers of "no, no, no, and no", the correct answers were "yes, maybe, yes, and yes."
In conclusion for me, I stand by statement that 2005 is the warmest year in the last century based on the NASA GISS data. But this is not the only reason that I don't think global warming stopped in 1998. Apart from the global-average temperature records there are numerous other indicators.
Omega @ Sun Oct 28, 2007 8:08 pm
sasquatch2 sasquatch2:
He lacks the intelligence to understand that the faulty assumptions his newfound faith are based upon are just plain BS. At least some of us realize that Zipperfish is just trolling but this goof really believes it.
So you call me a goof and Brenda basically says I have low intelligence.
You people really can't have a debate without resorting to personal insults, can you?
Brenda @ Sun Oct 28, 2007 8:27 pm
Omega Omega:
sasquatch2 sasquatch2:
He lacks the intelligence to understand that the faulty assumptions his newfound faith are based upon are just plain BS. At least some of us realize that Zipperfish is just trolling but this goof really believes it.
So you call me a goof and Brenda basically says I have low intelligence.
You people really can't have a debate without resorting to personal insults, can you?
You were the one insulting me, and I did not "basically say you have low intelligence" unless you mean you are saying that I have. I said, you not reading the link provided by Zip, and telling me I am a moron for not providing that link (which, when you did read it, should be clear I quoted Zip's link) says more about your intelligence then mine. You obviously didn't link that link to my quote, which proves to me you didn't even read that link. Nice way of debating...
So, keep me out of your insults, okay? Thanks.
Omega @ Sun Oct 28, 2007 9:26 pm
Brenda Brenda:
You were the one insulting me, and I did not "basically say you have low intelligence" unless you mean you are saying that I have. I said, you not reading the link provided by Zip, and telling me I am a moron for not providing that link (which, when you did read it, should be clear I quoted Zip's link) says more about your intelligence then mine. You obviously didn't link that link to my quote, which proves to me you didn't even read that link. Nice way of debating...
So, keep me out of your insults, okay? Thanks.
I only told you it was YOUR job to post links when you copy and paste.
I never called you a moron. You're seeing things.
My God.
Brenda @ Sun Oct 28, 2007 9:40 pm
You told me it was my DAMN job to do that, and you told me I basically said you have low intelligence.
Who is seeing things exactly?
Omega @ Sun Oct 28, 2007 9:59 pm
Brenda Brenda:
You told me it was my DAMN job to do that, and you told me I basically said you have low intelligence.
Who is seeing things exactly?
You *basically*
did say that. You said it says more about my intelligence yours. Unless you were praising my intelligence, which you obviously weren't, what else could you have been inferring Brenda?
You need to learn how to have someone disagree with you without taking that as a direct personal insult against you. You also need to learn not to make stuff up so as to come off as the victim. I didn't call you a moron. To say I did is a lie and against the rules of this board.
The good thing about message boards is there's a record of what actually was said. If this was real life, like in the workplace or in a social circle, it would unfortunately be my word against yours. Here, people can actually read back and see what I said and what I didn't. So why do you even try?
Brenda @ Sun Oct 28, 2007 10:02 pm
Exactly. So you are the one assuming. Not me. You just didn't read. Well, that is certainly not my problem, is it?
You need to learn how to handle a woman that disagrees with you. I didn't take anything personal. Yoiu did. You intervened in a discussion that wasn't even with you. So, maybe, next time, you might wanna mind your own business? 
Omega @ Sun Oct 28, 2007 10:11 pm
Brenda Brenda:
Exactly. So you are the one assuming. Not me. You just didn't read. Well, that is certainly not my problem, is it?
That wasn't an assumption at all. You inferred I had low intelligence, plain and simple. There is no other way of looking at it. You even responded with "exactly" which confirms that's what you did. On the other-hand, you went beyond assumption and resorted to an outright fabrication, a lie. Bad form.
Brenda Brenda:
You need to learn how to handle a woman that disagrees with you. I didn't take anything personal. Yoiu did. You intervened in a discussion that wasn't even with you. So, maybe, next time, you might wanna mind your own business?

My problem isn't with you all disagreeing with me. It's how you do it. Name-calling, comments on one's intelligence, and making up lies does not make for a mature and productive debate. Can't you see the difference between disagreeing and flaming?
And I'm sorry I intervened. I kind of started this thread so I kind of thought that I had a reason to be here.
Brenda @ Sun Oct 28, 2007 10:16 pm
If I would have called you names, I would have said other things. You started to swear, remember?
Anyway, would it make you happy if I say: You are right, whatever...?
Omega @ Sun Oct 28, 2007 10:28 pm
Brenda Brenda:
If I would have called you names, I would have said other things. You started to swear, remember?
Anyway, would it make you happy if I say: You are right, whatever...?
At this point I'll just be happy if you stop lying about me.
Brenda @ Sun Oct 28, 2007 10:38 pm
Lies? Who the hell is flaming here now?
The only thing you have been doing, is insult me. Stop that.
I was not aware of the fact, that since you started this thread, you owned it, and I needed permission to share my opinion. The way I do it is not good, the things I say are not right, but you are allowed to tell me how to do it, and I quote you:
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You need to learn how to have someone disagree with you without taking that as a direct personal insult against you. You also need to learn not to make stuff up so as to come off as the victim.
And I am the one telling lies? My goodness, someone is playing victim here, and it sure as hell ain't me!
Wait a minute now Zip, I think I'm starting to get this.
Bart Simpson is talking about the claim global mean temperatures averaged out say temperatures haven't risen since 1998.
We'll use your NASA data to show the truth of that. (I'm told by a pro-AGW guy this is "the NASA GISTEMP data set for Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change". The column in the middle is annual
1998 .57 .38
1999 .33 .42
2000 .33 .45
2001 .48 .45
2002 .56 .48
2003 .55 .54
2004 .49 .55
2005 .62 *
2006 .54 *
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.txt
As I recall you called the choosing of 1998 "Cherry picking" because 1998 was an El Nino year.
I then quoted Carter on his observance if you correct for El Nino, there's been no warming averaged out since 1979.
So that ended that. The next time the subject came up you quoted the NASA data. OK, I admit I missed your trick of language their. You appeared to be saying Bart Simpson's observation of no warming since 1998 was incorrect, and look at 2005. It's the warmest year since the little ice age. I thought you were still talking averages.
But now you're talking clearer, I get it. What you're saying now is simply 2005 was a warm year, right? Well it was. It was also an El Nino year. You tell me that matters right? So yes the El Nino year of 2005 was what? some fraction of a degree warmer than 1998. However this does not disprove Bart Simpson's observance. Averaged out there has been no warming since 1998.
But let's not bicker unnecessarily. If you average out the years there's been no warming since 1998. If you factor out El Nino there's been no warming since 1979. You agree that statement is correct, right? Be a big boy about it, and I'll show you something.
Here's a graph done by a pro-AGW guy.
So, even though Bart is correct about the averages showing no warming since 1998, if you look at the graph it appears to show a general rise up until 2005.
So really all you've got here is people arguing about tricks of language. Nevertheless it is true. Averaged out there has been no rise in temperatures since 1998, and if you correct for El Nino, there has been no rise since 1979.
Omega @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 7:43 am
Brenda Brenda:
Lies? Who the hell is flaming here now?
The only thing you have been doing, is insult me. Stop that.
Once again, Brenda, disagreeing with you is NOT the same as insulting you.
Brenda Brenda:
I was not aware of the fact, that since you started this thread, you owned it, and I needed permission to share my opinion. The way I do it is not good, the things I say are not right, but you are allowed to tell me how to do it, and I quote you:
I never said anything of the sort. Not even close. But another nice deflection.
Brenda Brenda:
And I am the one telling lies? My goodness, someone is playing victim here, and it sure as hell ain't me!
Do we have to go over this again? You complained that I called you a moron. I did not, which makes it a lie.
Brenda you are dealing with a sterotypical agw type.
Even when their science is shown to be bogus and fraud, they obtusely begin at the beginning and accuse the critics of not understanding. In reality they are accusing anyone who has not be deluded as they are of being a poo-poo-head. In frustration they resort to the activist practice of using obscene and profane language. One cannot escape the feeling that face-to-face they would instantly resort to violence like the anti-globalization twits.
Brenda @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:14 am
You know Jetboy, I didn't complain. You are flaming, and that is fine with me. I don't care if you call me a moron. I don't care if you called me anything.
It is obvious you are very upset by the conclusion you draw from one sentence. I am sorry for the fact you seem to think I think of you as someone with low intelligence. I never said that, nor did I mean that. What I did mean, is that you (and Neo for this matter) don't seem to read the links provided. If you had, it would be clear. It was clear to everybody else, since no one else complained.
Anyway, I don't agree with you on the man made global warming thing, which should not be insulting to anyone. I have read a post from you before where you were insulting about that to me, and very generalizing, but hey, I don't care, I don't feel insulted by you. You don't have that power. I don't allow that 