Conservative Support Firms, Lead By 8 and 6 ,12
mtbr @ Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:20 am
The latest rolling Canadian Press Harris/Decima surveys reveal: Nationally, over the last four nights, the Conservatives lead with 34%, followed by the Liberals at 26%, the NDP 18%, the Green Party 12%, the BQ with 9%. [...]
mtbr @ Fri Oct 10, 2008 11:10 am
Tories lead Grits by six points, NDP trending up. Latest CPAC-Nanos Ballot tracking, perceptions of the federal leaders (completed October 9)
http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/C ... -2008E.pdf
Apollo @ Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:17 pm
Just wait until Canadians realize that Canada is not the sinking Titanic that was proudly proclaimed by Layton and Dion.
Harper may get his majority yet.
karra @ Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:27 pm
He may indeed get his majority - 'cause if he doesn't, the following is unfathomable;
Prime Minister - Stephane Dion aka Stumble-bum - allo? my ear today don't ear good two
Finanace - Boob Rae - prepare for Ray Daze - and debt and taxes like you've never seen in this country
Defence - Jack Layton - Canada becomes the worlds marshmellow
Environment - Elizabeth May - no more people, just animals
Foreign Affairs - Iggy - backstabing his boss everywhere he travels
Not looking very attractive is it - this coalition of the new Ship of Fools
Good grief - just thinking about that is enough to cause one to hurl. . . .
westmanguy @ Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:50 pm
Edit that title!
http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2 ... er-9-2008/
12 point lead for Conservatives over the Liberals.
The momentum is shifting.
mtbr @ Fri Oct 10, 2008 4:03 pm
westmanguy westmanguy:
Edit that title!
http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2 ... er-9-2008/
12 point lead for Conservatives over the Liberals.
The momentum is shifting.
http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2 ... er-9-2008/
12 point lead for Conservatives over the Liberals.
The momentum is shifting.
done
ridenrain @ Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:40 pm
It was fun to see all the lefties get all enthusiastic for a second or two. 
Reverend Blair @ Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:42 pm
The latest Nanos numbers:
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,071, MoE ± 3.0%, 19 times out of 20)
Conservative Party 32 (-1)
Liberal Party 28 (+1)
NDP 22 (NC)
BQ 10% (NC)
Green Party 8% (NC)
Undecided 18% (+1)
Toro @ Sat Oct 11, 2008 1:44 pm
Latest UBC election tracking futures market has the Tories back up to a 93% probability of winning the election and capturing 137 seats. 
The probability of a Tory victory was as low as 85% a few days ago.
Toro @ Sat Oct 11, 2008 1:56 pm
Intrade currently has a 90%-94% chance of the Tories winning
http://www.intrade.com/#
Prediction markets are not perfectly accurate, but by the time the election arrives, they tend to be 99% accurate.
In fact, prediction markets do better at forecasting elections than polls.
$1:
"Prediction markets" are designed specifically to forecast events such as elections. Though election prediction markets have been being conducted for almost twenty years, to date nearly all of the evidence on efficiency compares election eve forecasts with final pre-election polls and actual outcomes. Here, we present evidence that prediction markets outperform polls for longer horizons. We gather national polls for the 1988 through 2004 U.S. Presidential elections and ask whether either the poll or a contemporaneous Iowa Electronic Markets vote-share market prediction is closer to the eventual outcome for the two-major-party vote split. We compare market predictions to 964 polls over the five Presidential elections since 1988. The market is closer to the eventual outcome 74% of the time. Further, the market significantly outperforms the polls in every election when forecasting more than 100 days in advance.
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/research/LongRunAccuracy/
Reverend Blair @ Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:14 pm
Ah, there goes Toro worshipping his market god again. Hey Toro, the invisible hand of the market is gangrenous and needs to be amputated.
ziggy @ Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:26 pm
Starting to look like the lib's and Dippers will be clawing and fighting over the scrap's soon. 
Scape @ Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:26 pm
http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2008/polltracker.html
This is far from in the bag.
ziggy @ Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:27 pm
I predict a majority,if one doesnt happen I'll donate 50 bucks to the site.
DerbyX @ Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:30 pm
I don't think the Libs will win a majority. A decent minority perhaps. 