Canada Kicks Ass
Election predictions

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Chumley @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:12 pm

hurley_108 hurley_108:
Chumley Chumley:
I just want to see a decent voter turnout for once.


My guess is you're going to be disappointed. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record low turnout.



A guy can dream can't he?

   



hurley_108 @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:26 pm

westmanguy westmanguy:
I concur. An increased Harper Minority, I think he would stay on. But if it's like in the 120-130 area, then he's gone. He'll either resign, or their will be party grumblings to get him out.

I'm not sure who would replace him at this point, but let's wait and see what happens this election before we jump to who would replace Harper (or Dion for that matter).


We don't need to jump to lay out the history. The Liberals have one clear heir apparent in Ignatieff, and an alternate in Rae, with several other high-profile members still in the party since the leadership convention. But my guess is that they'll have a much smaller, two- or three-person race, and come out quickly with strong leadership.

Second place for the Conservative leadership was Belinda. She's history. Third place, with a whopping 9% of the votes, was Clement. Those were the only three people running. And with the way that Harper has made himself out to as good as be the Conservative party personified, it'll be rough just finding people to run, and at least two possible candidates (Clement and Flaherty) are from Ontario, so the Alberta faction will once again find itself fighting its eastern bretheren.

There's a lot at stake in this election.

   



hurley_108 @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:27 pm

Chumley Chumley:
hurley_108 hurley_108:
Chumley Chumley:
I just want to see a decent voter turnout for once.


My guess is you're going to be disappointed. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record low turnout.



A guy can dream can't he?


He can. And I'll be cheering right along with you if we get a higher turnout than last time.

   



westmanguy @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:41 pm

Iggy could lose his riding to the Conservatives...if there is a pick up in the polls for the CPC over the next few days.

As far as Conservative leadership goes...

I don't know...I'd like someone young and fresh personally. Someone unknown. We have a few strong women in the party...wouldn't mind a female leader, (who is not a joke like Kim Campbell was).

   



westmanguy @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:45 pm

You're wrong lily, Kim Campbell was polling higher than the Liberals in the beginning of the campaign, the PCs could of squeezed out a PC Minority in 1993, but it was Kim Campbell's gaffes that caused the huge PC collapse.

   



hurley_108 @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:50 pm

westmanguy westmanguy:
Iggy could lose his riding to the Conservatives...if there is a pick up in the polls for the CPC over the next few days.


I'll be watching his riding for sure. Rae's and the one Kennedy' trying to win, too.

$1:
As far as Conservative leadership goes...

I don't know...I'd like someone young and fresh personally. Someone unknown. We have a few strong women in the party...wouldn't mind a female leader, (who is not a joke like Kim Campbell was).


Rona Ambrose FTW! :lol:

   



Chumley @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:52 pm

hurley_108 hurley_108:
westmanguy westmanguy:
Iggy could lose his riding to the Conservatives...if there is a pick up in the polls for the CPC over the next few days.


I'll be watching his riding for sure. Rae's and the one Kennedy' trying to win, too.

$1:
As far as Conservative leadership goes...

I don't know...I'd like someone young and fresh personally. Someone unknown. We have a few strong women in the party...wouldn't mind a female leader, (who is not a joke like Kim Campbell was).


Rona Ambrose FTW! :lol:


You've seen her sex tape?

   



QBC @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:57 pm

I predict that the politician, party and his buddies who are elected wins. The rest of us...loose again... :(

   



hurley_108 @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:11 pm

Chumley Chumley:
hurley_108 hurley_108:
westmanguy westmanguy:
Iggy could lose his riding to the Conservatives...if there is a pick up in the polls for the CPC over the next few days.


I'll be watching his riding for sure. Rae's and the one Kennedy' trying to win, too.

$1:
As far as Conservative leadership goes...

I don't know...I'd like someone young and fresh personally. Someone unknown. We have a few strong women in the party...wouldn't mind a female leader, (who is not a joke like Kim Campbell was).


Rona Ambrose FTW! :lol:


You've seen her sex tape?


Got a link? [drool]



:lol:

   



westmanguy @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:14 pm

Rona's hot, lol, but to be honest she has done very well in her Intergovernmental Affairs position.

Dona Cadman! haha.

   



Reverend Blair @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:35 pm

Okay, I'll take a shot at some weird election math. I'm assuming that all of the floor-crossing seats return to the parties that won them last time, so we're starting with the 2006 election results.

Atlantic Canada
Conservatives loose 3
NDP pick up 1
Liberals pick up 2

Quebec

Conservatives get beaten like red-headed step children, but only lose 5 seats. Could be worse.

Liberals hold
NDP get 1
Bloc gets 4

Ontario

Conservatives lose 8
NDP gains 2
Liberals gain 6

Manitoba
Conservatives lose 1
Liberals wash (that's always news)
NDP pick up 1

Saskatchewan
Andy Sheer gets eaten by coyotes. Either that or somebody is still practicing "Shoot, shovel and shut up." I have never before seen a man so universally despised even by those who vote for him.
Cons lose 1
NDP pick up 1

Alberta
No change.

BC

Lots of changes, but the numbers stay close.
Liberals lose 2 to the Conservatives (but they send Gary Lunn to whatever twisted hell he crawled out of)
NDP gain 2 from the Conservatives.

Net...
Cons -18
Libs +6
NDP +8
Bloc +4

So the final results are:
Cons 106
Liberals 109
NDP 37
Bloc 55
Independent (not a Green) 1

Harper gets fired and Duceppe retires. The Conservatives provide much entertainment as they blow apart like a mobile home in a tornado.

   



saturn_656 @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:38 pm

We're looking for "predictions" Rev, not dreams...

   



Zipperfish @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:39 pm

westmanguy westmanguy:
Rona's hot, lol, but to be honest she has done very well in her Intergovernmental Affairs position.

Dona Cadman! haha.


She was a disaster as Environment Minister. THEre, she earned the nick "potted Plant." She looked like she was headed for the top, but eihter wasn't ready or turned out to be a lightweight. To Harper's credit, he moved her out of there pretty fast. Unfortunately, he replaced her with professional spinmaster John Baird.

   



Reverend Blair @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:42 pm

Lets see your predictions, Saturn.

   



saturn_656 @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:45 pm

Harper will retain his minority, perhaps gain a few seats but nothing spectacular, and we are going to have quite a few pissed off 'dippers and libs on CKA for the few days after.

That is a much more likely scenario don't you think?

   



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