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Electionprediction has 96 ridings up for grabs

This is going to be a close one again.

   

They only list two in Alberta as "too close to call." Anne McLellan's old riding, Edmonton-Centre, and Rahim Jaffer's Edmonton-Strathcona.

I doubt either is very likely to shift from the Conservative incumbents, but it'll be a major coup for the Liberals and NDP if they manage to take one or both of their respective possibilities.

   

Check out the globe and mail and the toronto star to-day... the liberals are doing well. .. torys are gaining from bloc in Quebec , but thats ok

   

I know several people who are working on trying to upset Hawn...however, without a 'star' candidate like McLellan was, it'll be hard to knock him out. Same goes for Jaffer. Odds are the Liberal candidate there will steal enough seats from the NDP for Jaffer to take that seat too.

I think Edmonton-Sherwood Park could be really close, if only because Ken Epp is retiring, and handing it over to Tim Uppal. I think more than a few of the farmers in that district might vote for someone NOT wearing a turban, making it much closer than the last few elections.

   

The only thing that I can think of that will unseat Hawn is some sort of pendulum effect in which people who went from teh Liberals to the Conservatives decide they made their point and go back again. But I don't think that's likely.

You have to go back to '93 to find an election in Edmonton-Strathcona where the left wasn't split so wide that Hanrahan and Jaffer after him couldn't just coast in. Jaffer doesn't even go to the debates.

I suspect Uppal's turban would have to be pretty big to offset the 2 to 1 trouncing Epp gave all the other candidates combined in '06. But only time will tell.

I suspect Alberta will be pure blue again.

   

I agree that the Edmonton ridings are for the Conservatives to lose. I only think the races might be much closer this time, but there are probably still enough blue kool-aid drinkers to vote them back in.

   

Predictions of things to come during the lead up to the election(s) and beyond.

1) American economy begins REAL collapse (stock market collapse)
2) American gov't attacks additional middle eastern nations (pakistan/iran?)
3) Russia tensions with US rise ten fold (already in process)
4) Canadian troops recalled to Canada (Temporarily)
5) Cons/Liberal campaigns on cascades of failure
6) Canadians will not pay as much attention as needed due to other worldly issues
7) Another minority gov't elected with Harper
Crisis in the North American economy will set stage for NAU(SPP)
9) Liberals and Cons will applaud the "New deal" and people will accept a NAU
10) People will be divided if not outraged

*Shrugs just my guess

   

News on this front:

Some are unhappy about the way the nomination was handled, and one of the Conservative contenders is running as an independent.

   

Just took another look. Predictions right now stand thus:

C 119
L 75
N 29
B 41
O 2

With 42 too close to call. So I went and tallied up the incumbents for the TCTCs, just for kicks. Adding them in, the count would look like this:

C 126
L 96
N 34
B 50
O 2

The current house of commons is:

C 127
L 95
N 30
B 48
O 4
V 4

So if the predictions are accurate, and the TCTCs go incumbent:

WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK WHERE WE STARTED!

AGH!

   

lol, I will slam my head against the wall if we end up with the same bloody result as we went to this election with.

Canadians need to make up their minds, honestly.

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedblog/

I like that website, seems to be accurate.

I'm predicting 140+ seats for the Conservatives. An increased Conservative Minority.

Although, obviously, I'm crossing my fingers for a surge, and a Conservative Majority.

To break it down by region, this is my prediction:

Atlantic Canada
Roughly the same (due to Conservative gains in New Brunswick)

Quebec
Roughly the same, few less Liberals, few more Tories, few less BQs

Ontario
More Conservatives
Less Liberals

Prairies
3 more Conservatives, 1 more New Democrat, Liberals wiped out.

British Colubmia
More Conservatives
Liberals wiped out (exception: Hedy Fry)
Few less NDP'ers

   

Generally, I think the Liberals could be slaughtered in the West. Take a look.

There are 3 Liberals in Manitoba. 2 of them are in Winnipeg. The Tory challengers there are favoured to win. The other Liberal, is Tina Keeper in the vast northern riding, and the NDP has a good shot at taking that riding.

Saskatchewan is all Conservative, except for Ralph Goodale. The Conservatives are putting on a strong challenge against Goodale, in Michelle Hunter (former Sask Party executive).

Alberta - Solid Conservative. The NDP won't make that gain.

British Columbia, the Liberals are likely going to get slaughtered and hold on to 1-3 seats (all in Vancouver).

I think most left wing members could agree the NDP is the left wing force in the West.

   

Polls change like the weather.
Who the hell knows.
I just want to see a decent voter turnout for once.

   

If nothing substantially changes, I can't see the Conservatives being very pleased with Harper's consistent inability to produce a majority government. And if he can't even make any real gains on the smallest, proportionally, minority government we've ever had, o reven dropping a seat or two, that's not going to go down well.

But who would replace him?

   

My guess is you're going to be disappointed. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record low turnout.

   

I concur. An increased Harper Minority, I think he would stay on. But if it's like in the 120-130 area, then he's gone. He'll either resign, or their will be party grumblings to get him out.

I'm not sure who would replace him at this point, but let's wait and see what happens this election before we jump to who would replace Harper (or Dion for that matter).

   

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