Nanos: CP 34, LP 31, NDP 18
Scape @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 12:40 pm
hurley_108 @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 12:44 pm
Yea. I wish the Liberal gain wasn't coming at the apparent expense of the Greens, and was instead coming from the Bloc, who are on the increase. It's certainly shaping up to be a real nail-biter.
ridenrain @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 12:46 pm
Hang on to you're wallets.
Reverend Blair @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 1:11 pm
I've seen a couple of talking heads over the course of the election suggest that if they are within three points, the Liberals are likely to win more seats than the Conservatives due to Conservative over-representation in Alberta skewing the numbers.
If that were to happen, do you think Harper would begin to back PR?
sandorski @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 8:27 am
Damn, if Dion pulls this off it will be another confirmation of his reputation as one who inexplicably Wins. Time will tell.
Canadaka @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 5:42 pm
wow watching the news today and yesterday, the conservatives have changed there tone, they are much more angrier now.
Reverend Blair @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 6:06 pm
They are angry and sounding desperate, Trev. That never plays well for them because they start intimating that the very voters they want to support them were idiots for ever voting for somebody else.
ridenrain @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 6:14 pm
Interesting question..
$1:
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Why top 2?
You're missing the other nuumbers though:
$1:
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
Conservative leader Stephen Harper 34% (+1)
NDP leader Jack Layton 20% (-1)
Liberal leader Stephane Dion 18% (NC)
Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (+1)
Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (+1)
None of them 7% (NC)
Unsure 14% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
Stephen Harper 95 (+9)
Stephane Dion 51 (-7)
Jack Layton 47 (-8)
Elizabeth May 21 (+3)
Gilles Duceppe 13 (+1)
Conservative leader Stephen Harper 34% (+1)
NDP leader Jack Layton 20% (-1)
Liberal leader Stephane Dion 18% (NC)
Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (+1)
Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (+1)
None of them 7% (NC)
Unsure 14% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
Stephen Harper 95 (+9)
Stephane Dion 51 (-7)
Jack Layton 47 (-8)
Elizabeth May 21 (+3)
Gilles Duceppe 13 (+1)
Maybe this will help:
Reverend Blair @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 6:25 pm
Here's today's numbers, Riden:
$1:
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,016, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
Conservative Party 33 (-1)
Liberal Party 29 (-2)
NDP 20 (+2)
BQ 11% (NC)
Green Party 7% (+1)
Undecided 15% (NC)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,200,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
Conservative leader Stephen Harper 33% (-1)
NDP leader Jack Layton 20% (NC)
Liberal leader Stephane Dion 17% (-1)
Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (-1)
None of them 7% (NC)
Unsure 14% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada's future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
Stephen Harper 89 (-6)
Jack Layton 56 (+9)
Stephane Dion 50 (-1)
Elizabeth May 21 (NC)
Gilles Duceppe 16 (+3)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,016, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
Conservative Party 33 (-1)
Liberal Party 29 (-2)
NDP 20 (+2)
BQ 11% (NC)
Green Party 7% (+1)
Undecided 15% (NC)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,200,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
Conservative leader Stephen Harper 33% (-1)
NDP leader Jack Layton 20% (NC)
Liberal leader Stephane Dion 17% (-1)
Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (-1)
None of them 7% (NC)
Unsure 14% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada's future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
Stephen Harper 89 (-6)
Jack Layton 56 (+9)
Stephane Dion 50 (-1)
Elizabeth May 21 (NC)
Gilles Duceppe 16 (+3)
Harper is trending down and everybody else is going up a little at a time.
Elvis @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 6:35 pm
There is something that the national polls annalist's do not take into account.
The hight concentration of support for the conservative in the central province (60% +) give a false idea about the number of seat the conservative will have in the end.
because in the end 1 vote can tilt a riding one way or another.
scarecrowe @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 6:35 pm
Reverend Blair Reverend Blair:
* Stephen Harper 89 (-6)
* Stephen Harper 95 (+9) not 89 which by the way would be +3, not -6
but let's not confuse the voters with facts since 2/3 are already totally confused as it is.
Elvis @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 6:39 pm
Ooops I didn't see that the Liberal where 12 point ahead in Ontario. 
I'm ready to bet that Stéphane Dion will be prime minister 
Ho my God !
hurley_108 @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 6:52 pm
ridenrain ridenrain:
Interesting question..
Why top 2?
$1:
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Why top 2?
My guess is it's to put the respondent into the mindframe of actually voting, so as to try and get the same answer as how they'd actually mark the ballot. I donno. Worked well for them in '06, we'll see if it works well again.
Reverend Blair @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:07 pm
$1:
* Stephen Harper 95 (+9) not 89 which by the way would be +3, not -6
The numbers come directly from the Nanos site, Scarecrowe. The ones I posted were today's numbers.
I don't know what date Riden's numbers are from.
tritium @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:42 pm
Canadaka Canadaka:
wow watching the news today and yesterday, the conservatives have changed there tone, they are much more angrier now.
What do you expect. Harper was to confident, and called the election because he thought he had it in the bag..
Soon he will be saying Prime Minister Dion.
