From this distance, and with minimum intelligence (information--HOCKEY PUCKS), a pattern is slowly emerging.
Iranian backed Shiite "special operations groups" not under the control of anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, head of the Mahdi Army militia, are attacking Shiites to incite secular violence.
Al Qaeda in Iraq has been attacking every faction including the US, to incite secular violence.
Al Qaeda is largely Sunnite, recruiting from the Sunnites, hence the Sunnites are becoming aware that attacks on Sunnites are not the Mahdi Army but Al Qaeda.
The Mahdi Army has it own intelligence resources which has figured out the "special operations groups" are attacking their people.
Without any cooperation both Sunnite and Shiites are turning on the terrorists.
In short both Al Qaeda and the Iranians have overplayed their hand and lost the hearts and minds of their former allies/sympathizers. The Sunnites have allied with the American forces to increase their fire-power against their new enemies Al Qaeda in Iraq. The Mahdi Army has the man-power to deal with the Iranian backed terrorists but may also ally with the Americans or the government.
In short the Iraqis are sorting it out by themselves. The surge enhances security but little else. It appears the coalition is now more regarded as security than as occupiers.
The reduction in violence is more a reflection of the shift in the factions more than a result of the surge. There is the possibility that the surge stressed the terrorists into making their fatal faux pas.....but we may never know.
This question (did the surge work?) suggests that something good could actually come out of this in the first place.... which is completely false.
As predicted by the loons like myself, it would be used as a political tool to extend the mission... to allow for more time to work out a deal for an occupation with no end (which was just announced the other day).... and to provide a security force for the US friendly puppet government to keep the sheep in line.
Meanwhile, the privatization of Iraqi owned industry continues.... the rape and pillaging of Iraqi property, and people.... and eventually the carving up of the most lucrative prize.... the oil.
The American government couldn't give a rats ass about Iraq and it's people..... the facts speak for itself.
To believe that anything honorable and moraly just exists in these actions, is a sure sign of ignorance or a lack of education surrounding the facts and history beyond the soundbites and empty Bush rhetoric..... armies of bogeymen with Nukes, WMD's, and whatever else they could drum up to frighten the easily spooked and naive hillbillies south of our border.
Time to start calling a spade a spade.
Hundreds of thousands of people were thrown out of their jobs for just being a Baath party member.... something many people did regardless of their political beliefs in order to maintain their career momentum.... everyone from teachers, military, government, everything. They were treated like garbage for no good reason, and were turned into enemies by the actions taken on part of wanna-be kings like Paul Bremer.... handpicked neocons who were put into positions of power, and given the helm of a country to turn upside down, and make decisions that have led to Iraq being the disaster it is today. Schools were closed overnight.... since most of the teachers were Baath pary members.... universities were shut down since profs needed to be Baath party members.... electricity and water services were destroyed as a result of American bombs.... people were left to fend for themselves and their families in a climate of fear and violence.... anarchy perpetuated by Shock and awe, while the Joe six packs watching CNN drink their shitty beer while sitting on their fat asses, cheering for their "boys" as they destroy innocent lives.... all in the name of a bullshit mission that can be easily understood and supported by the simpletons who see a brown guy walking down the street and think he's a terrorist. Preying on the simple and ignorant through a barrage of media messages that are false (the promotion of fear).... especially the religious right who fit that mold to a T.... is stock and trade for the Neocons.
Winning Hearts and minds the American way.... or should I say, the neocon way.
Iraq should never have happened.... plain and simple. The chaos and violence that exists today is a result of the invasion and occupation. The only answer is complete withdraw, and reparations to pay for the damage that's been done by the crimminals who led this war.