Did the Iraqi "Surge" work?
dog77_1999 @ Sat Nov 24, 2007 2:29 pm
$1:
Since the last soldiers of the "surge" deployed in May, this city has undergone a remarkable transformation.
No longer do the streets empty at dusk. Liquor stores and cinemas have reopened, and some shops stay open into the evening. Children play in the parks, young women stay out after dark, restaurants are filled with families, and old men sit at sidewalk cafes, playing backgammon and smoking.
To be sure, Baghdad is still a violent and dangerous place. Pockets remain under the control of al-Qaida in Iraq. Bandits and gangsters roam back alleyways, and explosions still rumble through the air, though far less frequently than they did a few months ago. Many issues remain unresolved, but for the first time in years, residents are starting to remember what an ordinary life is like.
"I used to close my shop at 6 p.m., but now I stay open till 9 or 9:30. Then I walk home and I feel completely safe," said Jawad al-Sufi, 64, who runs the House of Hijab head scarf shop in the much-bombed district of Karradah. He has replaced his windows five times because of bombings outside his shop, but there has hardly been an attack in Karradah since September.
"There was a sharp turnaround," he said. "Right after Eid," the Muslim holiday in late October. "Since then, security has improved 85 percent."
Nationwide drop in violence
U.S. military and Iraqi government statistics show the violence has fallen significantly, not only in the capital but countrywide. Most of the figures are not broken out for Baghdad, but in the past it has accounted for a high percentage of the violence.
The number of explosions of all kinds has fallen from 1,641 nationwide in March to 763 in October - still high, but a level not seen since September 2005, the U.S. military says. Mortar attacks also are down, from an all-time high of 224 in Baghdad in June to 53 in October. A senior U.S. general said Thursday the number of bombings throughout the country had dropped by almost half since March.
Reliable casualty figures have been hard to come by since the Iraqi government stopped publicizing monthly tallies earlier this year, but inevitably the reduction in attacks also has reduced the number of deaths. According to an Associated Press tally, 750 people were killed in Iraq last month, down from 2,172 in December. Iraq's Interior Ministry gives an even lower figure for the month: 506 civilians killed nationwide. Though this has been the deadliest year for U.S troops in Iraq since the 2003 invasion, U.S. casualties also have dropped, from a year's high of 126 in May to 38 last month.
U.S. and Iraqi officials attribute the improvement to several factors. The surge of nearly 30,000 extra U.S. troops undoubtedly has played a part, as have the increased capabilities of Iraqi security forces. Whereas it was normal in the past to travel across Baghdad without encountering security forces, now there are checkpoints every few blocks, and Iraqi police stand guard on streets.
Revolt against al-Qaida
Far more significant than the increased troop presence, officials say, is the revolt within Sunni neighborhoods against al-Qaida in Iraq. Echoing the successful tribal rebellion against al-Qaida in Anbar province, local Sunni insurgents have turned against their former allies, driving the extremists out of their strongholds and ending their reign of terror.
"There's obviously our offensive operations to strike against those extremist groups, but the real change has been that the populace rejects al-Qaida," Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, the U.S. commander of ground forces in Iraq, said at a Pentagon briefing earlier this month.
Iraqi officials already are declaring victory. "Al-Qaida has been defeated completely, and soon they will cease operating ... ," Maj. Gen. Abdul-Karim Khalaf, the Interior Ministry spokesman, said in an interview. "Now they're shifting their operations outside Iraq." U.S. officials are more cautious, saying al-Qaida almost certainly is trying to regroup. "Al-Qaida ... is not finished by any means," Maj. Gen. Joseph Fil, the U.S. commander in Baghdad, told reporters in a Nov. 6 briefing. "They could come back swinging if they're allowed to."
The drop in the mass-casualty al-Qaida bombings that ignited Shia rage also has removed a chief motive of the Shia militias engaged in death-squad activity against Sunnis. The Mahdi Army militia loyal to cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, blamed for much of the killing, declared a six-month cease-fire in August, and U.S. officials and Iraqis say they mostly appear to be adhering to it.
"The militias were created as a reaction to what al-Qaida was doing, but now there is no need for sectarianism," said Sheik Ali Hatim Ali Sulaiman, head of the Dulaim, the biggest Sunni tribe and a figure in the Awakening movement that has transformed the Sunni community. "There is still sectarianism, but hopefully it will go away. ..."
Displaced are keeping away
So far, there is no evidence that significant numbers of those displaced by the violence are planning to return anytime soon. Though the government has touted the homecoming of 7,000 families in recent weeks, that's just a tiny fraction of the 1.4 million people displaced within the capital, according to the Iraqi Red Crescent. The figure excludes the high percentage of Baghdad residents believed to be among the more than 2 million Iraqis who have fled to neighboring countries.
Persuading them that it is safe to go home to areas where their relatives or neighbors were killed because they belonged to the wrong sect could be difficult. "Anything could still go wrong," said a Sunni resident of the former al-Qaida stronghold of Dora, once regarded as one of Baghdad's most dangerous neighborhoods. Local insurgents turned against al-Qaida just in the past month, lifting the Islamist rules banning smoking and requiring women to wear head scarves. They also encouraged shops in the once-shuttered streets to reopen.
But the Sunni resident didn't want to be named because he is still afraid. He says he recognizes former al-Qaida members among Sunnis now working with Americans, and has told former Shia and Christian neighbors not to return. "They are just wearing new masks," he said.
U.S. officials still cautious
There also is no evidence yet of the national-level reconciliation U.S. officials say is needed if gains are to be sustained. Politicians are still squabbling and key benchmarks required by the Bush administration - a law to allow ex-members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party to hold public office, or a law to equitably distribute the country's oil - have not been reached.
"First we thank God, and then ... the Americans. But the politicians have played no part in this," said Sulaiman, the Sunni tribal leader, who is concerned lack of progress could prompt Sunnis to return to the insurgency.
U.S. officials realize another major attack such as the one that destroyed the Shias' Samarra shrine in February 2006 could reignite bloodletting. Though U.S. commanders have said it might be possible to start sending home extra "surge" troops by the middle of next year, military spokesman Rear Adm. Gregory Smith said last week that the military plans to sustain the Baghdad security plan at its current levels "for the foreseeable future."
"It would be unwise and irresponsible to declare victory," he cautioned.
A safer Baghdad?
Various measures of violence in Baghdad, according to data gathered by McClatchy's Baghdad Bureau:
Car Bomb attacks
Dec. '06 - 38
Oct. '07 - 15
IED* attacks
Dec. '06 - 27
Oct. '07 - 48
Civilians injured
Dec. '06 - 1,099
Oct. '07 - 450
Civilains killed
Dec. '06 - 361
Oct. '07 - 114
Bodies found
Dec. '06 - 1,030
Oct. '07 - 168
*Improvised explosive device
SOURCE: MCCLATCHY WASHINGTON BUREAU
Liz Sly, the Tribune's Middle East correspondent, arrived in Baghdad shortly after the U.S.-led invasion in April 2003 and has been the newspaper's chief correspondent there since May 2004. She covered the country's first and second democratic elections and the rapid deterioration in security that followed the February 2006 bombing of the Shia shrine in Samarra by Sunni militants. She also survived a car bombing that destroyed the Tribune's Baghdad office in November 2005. Sly first visited Baghdad in October 1990, in the prelude to the 1991 Persian Gulf war.
No longer do the streets empty at dusk. Liquor stores and cinemas have reopened, and some shops stay open into the evening. Children play in the parks, young women stay out after dark, restaurants are filled with families, and old men sit at sidewalk cafes, playing backgammon and smoking.
To be sure, Baghdad is still a violent and dangerous place. Pockets remain under the control of al-Qaida in Iraq. Bandits and gangsters roam back alleyways, and explosions still rumble through the air, though far less frequently than they did a few months ago. Many issues remain unresolved, but for the first time in years, residents are starting to remember what an ordinary life is like.
"I used to close my shop at 6 p.m., but now I stay open till 9 or 9:30. Then I walk home and I feel completely safe," said Jawad al-Sufi, 64, who runs the House of Hijab head scarf shop in the much-bombed district of Karradah. He has replaced his windows five times because of bombings outside his shop, but there has hardly been an attack in Karradah since September.
"There was a sharp turnaround," he said. "Right after Eid," the Muslim holiday in late October. "Since then, security has improved 85 percent."
Nationwide drop in violence
U.S. military and Iraqi government statistics show the violence has fallen significantly, not only in the capital but countrywide. Most of the figures are not broken out for Baghdad, but in the past it has accounted for a high percentage of the violence.
The number of explosions of all kinds has fallen from 1,641 nationwide in March to 763 in October - still high, but a level not seen since September 2005, the U.S. military says. Mortar attacks also are down, from an all-time high of 224 in Baghdad in June to 53 in October. A senior U.S. general said Thursday the number of bombings throughout the country had dropped by almost half since March.
Reliable casualty figures have been hard to come by since the Iraqi government stopped publicizing monthly tallies earlier this year, but inevitably the reduction in attacks also has reduced the number of deaths. According to an Associated Press tally, 750 people were killed in Iraq last month, down from 2,172 in December. Iraq's Interior Ministry gives an even lower figure for the month: 506 civilians killed nationwide. Though this has been the deadliest year for U.S troops in Iraq since the 2003 invasion, U.S. casualties also have dropped, from a year's high of 126 in May to 38 last month.
U.S. and Iraqi officials attribute the improvement to several factors. The surge of nearly 30,000 extra U.S. troops undoubtedly has played a part, as have the increased capabilities of Iraqi security forces. Whereas it was normal in the past to travel across Baghdad without encountering security forces, now there are checkpoints every few blocks, and Iraqi police stand guard on streets.
Revolt against al-Qaida
Far more significant than the increased troop presence, officials say, is the revolt within Sunni neighborhoods against al-Qaida in Iraq. Echoing the successful tribal rebellion against al-Qaida in Anbar province, local Sunni insurgents have turned against their former allies, driving the extremists out of their strongholds and ending their reign of terror.
"There's obviously our offensive operations to strike against those extremist groups, but the real change has been that the populace rejects al-Qaida," Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, the U.S. commander of ground forces in Iraq, said at a Pentagon briefing earlier this month.
Iraqi officials already are declaring victory. "Al-Qaida has been defeated completely, and soon they will cease operating ... ," Maj. Gen. Abdul-Karim Khalaf, the Interior Ministry spokesman, said in an interview. "Now they're shifting their operations outside Iraq." U.S. officials are more cautious, saying al-Qaida almost certainly is trying to regroup. "Al-Qaida ... is not finished by any means," Maj. Gen. Joseph Fil, the U.S. commander in Baghdad, told reporters in a Nov. 6 briefing. "They could come back swinging if they're allowed to."
The drop in the mass-casualty al-Qaida bombings that ignited Shia rage also has removed a chief motive of the Shia militias engaged in death-squad activity against Sunnis. The Mahdi Army militia loyal to cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, blamed for much of the killing, declared a six-month cease-fire in August, and U.S. officials and Iraqis say they mostly appear to be adhering to it.
"The militias were created as a reaction to what al-Qaida was doing, but now there is no need for sectarianism," said Sheik Ali Hatim Ali Sulaiman, head of the Dulaim, the biggest Sunni tribe and a figure in the Awakening movement that has transformed the Sunni community. "There is still sectarianism, but hopefully it will go away. ..."
Displaced are keeping away
So far, there is no evidence that significant numbers of those displaced by the violence are planning to return anytime soon. Though the government has touted the homecoming of 7,000 families in recent weeks, that's just a tiny fraction of the 1.4 million people displaced within the capital, according to the Iraqi Red Crescent. The figure excludes the high percentage of Baghdad residents believed to be among the more than 2 million Iraqis who have fled to neighboring countries.
Persuading them that it is safe to go home to areas where their relatives or neighbors were killed because they belonged to the wrong sect could be difficult. "Anything could still go wrong," said a Sunni resident of the former al-Qaida stronghold of Dora, once regarded as one of Baghdad's most dangerous neighborhoods. Local insurgents turned against al-Qaida just in the past month, lifting the Islamist rules banning smoking and requiring women to wear head scarves. They also encouraged shops in the once-shuttered streets to reopen.
But the Sunni resident didn't want to be named because he is still afraid. He says he recognizes former al-Qaida members among Sunnis now working with Americans, and has told former Shia and Christian neighbors not to return. "They are just wearing new masks," he said.
U.S. officials still cautious
There also is no evidence yet of the national-level reconciliation U.S. officials say is needed if gains are to be sustained. Politicians are still squabbling and key benchmarks required by the Bush administration - a law to allow ex-members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party to hold public office, or a law to equitably distribute the country's oil - have not been reached.
"First we thank God, and then ... the Americans. But the politicians have played no part in this," said Sulaiman, the Sunni tribal leader, who is concerned lack of progress could prompt Sunnis to return to the insurgency.
U.S. officials realize another major attack such as the one that destroyed the Shias' Samarra shrine in February 2006 could reignite bloodletting. Though U.S. commanders have said it might be possible to start sending home extra "surge" troops by the middle of next year, military spokesman Rear Adm. Gregory Smith said last week that the military plans to sustain the Baghdad security plan at its current levels "for the foreseeable future."
"It would be unwise and irresponsible to declare victory," he cautioned.
A safer Baghdad?
Various measures of violence in Baghdad, according to data gathered by McClatchy's Baghdad Bureau:
Car Bomb attacks
Dec. '06 - 38
Oct. '07 - 15
IED* attacks
Dec. '06 - 27
Oct. '07 - 48
Civilians injured
Dec. '06 - 1,099
Oct. '07 - 450
Civilains killed
Dec. '06 - 361
Oct. '07 - 114
Bodies found
Dec. '06 - 1,030
Oct. '07 - 168
*Improvised explosive device
SOURCE: MCCLATCHY WASHINGTON BUREAU
Liz Sly, the Tribune's Middle East correspondent, arrived in Baghdad shortly after the U.S.-led invasion in April 2003 and has been the newspaper's chief correspondent there since May 2004. She covered the country's first and second democratic elections and the rapid deterioration in security that followed the February 2006 bombing of the Shia shrine in Samarra by Sunni militants. She also survived a car bombing that destroyed the Tribune's Baghdad office in November 2005. Sly first visited Baghdad in October 1990, in the prelude to the 1991 Persian Gulf war.
http://www.newsday.com/news/printeditio ... 0535.story
It looks like it did, but nobody is calling it a success just yet. Success has been thrown around before only to be followed by more violence. The Sunnis getting the idea that Al Queda is not your friend also helps.
DerbyX @ Sat Nov 24, 2007 2:32 pm
Since the invasion there have been many times when the violence went down in successive months with the same things being said. Then it shoots right back up again. The violence would have to drop to levels we see on our own streets before they could ever call it a success.
dog77_1999 @ Sat Nov 24, 2007 2:44 pm
DerbyX DerbyX:
Since the invasion there have been many times when the violence went down in successive months with the same things being said. Then it shoots right back up again. The violence would have to drop to levels we see on our own streets before they could ever call it a success.
Our own streets? I think you are aiming a bit too high there. Iraq, perhaps most countries on Earth, will never ever reach this level.
So, how many more months of lower violence would constitute success from the surge? I am guessing about 6 months myself.
DerbyX @ Sat Nov 24, 2007 3:04 pm
dog77_1999 dog77_1999:
DerbyX DerbyX:
Since the invasion there have been many times when the violence went down in successive months with the same things being said. Then it shoots right back up again. The violence would have to drop to levels we see on our own streets before they could ever call it a success.
Our own streets? I think you are aiming a bit too high there. Iraq, perhaps most countries on Earth, will never ever reach this level.
So, how many more months of lower violence would constitute success from the surge? I am guessing about 6 months myself.
When all the US troops leave will it be a success for both sides. Anything less then a full withdrawl is unacceptable.
dog77_1999 @ Sat Nov 24, 2007 3:41 pm
DerbyX DerbyX:
dog77_1999 dog77_1999:
DerbyX DerbyX:
Since the invasion there have been many times when the violence went down in successive months with the same things being said. Then it shoots right back up again. The violence would have to drop to levels we see on our own streets before they could ever call it a success.
Our own streets? I think you are aiming a bit too high there. Iraq, perhaps most countries on Earth, will never ever reach this level.
So, how many more months of lower violence would constitute success from the surge? I am guessing about 6 months myself.
When all the US troops leave will it be a success for both sides. Anything less then a full withdrawl is unacceptable.
I am talking about the surge, not the whole war.
DerbyX @ Sat Nov 24, 2007 3:45 pm
dog77_1999 dog77_1999:
DerbyX DerbyX:
dog77_1999 dog77_1999:
DerbyX DerbyX:
Since the invasion there have been many times when the violence went down in successive months with the same things being said. Then it shoots right back up again. The violence would have to drop to levels we see on our own streets before they could ever call it a success.
Our own streets? I think you are aiming a bit too high there. Iraq, perhaps most countries on Earth, will never ever reach this level.
So, how many more months of lower violence would constitute success from the surge? I am guessing about 6 months myself.
When all the US troops leave will it be a success for both sides. Anything less then a full withdrawl is unacceptable.
I am talking about the surge, not the whole war.
Ah I see. In the respect of a single battle so to speak it can be considered a victory but with respect to the war as a whole its not.
Thanos @ Sat Nov 24, 2007 4:02 pm
Bush placed political reconciliation as one of the major benchmarks by which the surge should be judged. This hasn't happened yet so the surge can only be judged as a partial success. As we should all be well aware of by now, violence in Iraq ebbs and flows. Two months from now the violence could be back in full force, or even worse than it was last year. Any success in the surge doesn't erase the criminal incompetence of Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld anyhow. If they hadn't gone in with too few troops in the first place (or disbanded the Iraqi army and police, or fired all the Baathist civil servants, or properly secured the Syrian and Iranian borders, or, or, ad nauseum) the violence of the 2005-2006 period wouldn't have gotten so endemic to begin with. Some mistakes and miscalculations are too great to forgive or forget, and these guys should still be viewed very suspiciously on everything they do and say before their removal from power in January 2009.
Kudos to the US soldiers, as always, on whatever progress may have happend over the last few months but I wouldn't dust off all those prematurely-displayed "Mission Accomplished" banners just yet.
DerbyX @ Sat Nov 24, 2007 4:05 pm
Thanos Thanos:
Bush placed political reconciliation as one of the major benchmarks by which the surge should be judged. This hasn't happened yet so the surge can only be judged as a partial success. As we should all be well aware of by now, violence in Iraq ebbs and flows. Two months from now the violence could be back in full force, or even worse than it was last year. Any success in the surge doesn't erase the criminal incompetence of Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld anyhow. If they hadn't gone in with too few troops in the first place (or disbanded the Iraqi army and police, or fired all the Baathist civil servants, or properly secured the Syrian and Iranian borders, or, or, ad nauseum) the violence of the 2005-2006 period wouldn't have gotten so endemic to begin with. Some mistakes and miscalculations are too great to forgive or forget, and these guys should still be viewed very suspiciously on everything they do and say before their removal from power in January 2009.
Kudos to the US soldiers, as always, on whatever progress may have happend over the last few months but I wouldn't dust off all those prematurely-displayed "Mission Accomplished" banners just yet.
Kudos to the US soldiers, as always, on whatever progress may have happend over the last few months but I wouldn't dust off all those prematurely-displayed "Mission Accomplished" banners just yet.
They never should have invaded in the first place then none of the violence would have been their fault or responsibility.
dog77_1999 @ Sat Nov 24, 2007 4:31 pm
Thanos Thanos:
Bush placed political reconciliation as one of the major benchmarks by which the surge should be judged. This hasn't happened yet so the surge can only be judged as a partial success. As we should all be well aware of by now, violence in Iraq ebbs and flows. Two months from now the violence could be back in full force, or even worse than it was last year. Any success in the surge doesn't erase the criminal incompetence of Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld anyhow. If they hadn't gone in with too few troops in the first place (or disbanded the Iraqi army and police, or fired all the Baathist civil servants, or properly secured the Syrian and Iranian borders, or, or, ad nauseum) the violence of the 2005-2006 period wouldn't have gotten so endemic to begin with. Some mistakes and miscalculations are too great to forgive or forget, and these guys should still be viewed very suspiciously on everything they do and say before their removal from power in January 2009.
Kudos to the US soldiers, as always, on whatever progress may have happend over the last few months but I wouldn't dust off all those prematurely-displayed "Mission Accomplished" banners just yet.
Kudos to the US soldiers, as always, on whatever progress may have happend over the last few months but I wouldn't dust off all those prematurely-displayed "Mission Accomplished" banners just yet.
Good point. The Iraqi reconciliation still hasn't occured. And to be honest it's the biggest problem Iraq has. There is no point in being there if the 3 groups are not willing to cooperate.
What is really strking is that the Sunnis are the ones who are dragging their feet the most. They have the most to lose if Iraq breaks out into civil war or into serperate states.
DerbyX @ Sat Nov 24, 2007 4:38 pm
US blame Shiites for new violence
They take turns and each blames the other. They don't deserve to live in peace because they aren't willing to live in peace. Saddam was a product of their society not the cause of it.
hwacker @ Sat Nov 24, 2007 5:43 pm
DerbyX DerbyX:
dog77_1999 dog77_1999:
DerbyX DerbyX:
Since the invasion there have been many times when the violence went down in successive months with the same things being said. Then it shoots right back up again. The violence would have to drop to levels we see on our own streets before they could ever call it a success.
Our own streets? I think you are aiming a bit too high there. Iraq, perhaps most countries on Earth, will never ever reach this level.
So, how many more months of lower violence would constitute success from the surge? I am guessing about 6 months myself.
When all the US troops leave will it be a success for both sides. Anything less then a full withdrawl is unacceptable.
Anything but a pair of balls is ok with you.
When are you leaving Canada, you give us a bad name.
Johnny_Utah @ Sat Nov 24, 2007 5:43 pm
The surge seems to have worked, but only time will really tell as it's up to the Iraqis in which way things go..
BluesBud @ Sat Nov 24, 2007 6:43 pm
Imagine what could have been accomplished if they had Tasers. 
Zipperfish @ Sat Nov 24, 2007 6:58 pm
DerbyX DerbyX:
Very insightful observation. It would be a good time for the US to leave. Something tells me that they're more interested in permanent military bases in Iraq rather than permanenet political solutions in Iraq though.
damngrumpy @ Sat Nov 24, 2007 8:16 pm
The surge has only secured Bagdad and we don't know what the other side has planned. Clearly the surge has provided a false security which could end in a single day. These people are tribal and their first loyalty is to their specific family. Now we are seeing tribal fighting between moderates and fundamentalists, at a tribal level, so there are less attacks on coalition soldiers and more violence directed at each other. There was no need to go there in the first place, yes the had Saddam but they also had a secular government that had control of the various tribes The dream of dividing up the Iraqi peoples oil has turned out to be Americas nightmare and I don't think they will get out of there for a long time
.