Get Off HIs Back - By Ben Stein 9/4/2005
Zipperfish Zipperfish:
Science is more about bounding uncertainty than determining certainty. It rarely, if ever, absolutely "proves" anyting except abstract theorems.
Science can be used quite successfully to prove things with certainty. You're using a computer whose layers and layers of technology are certain proof of literally millions of hypotheses that have been proven irrefutably.
Zipperfish Zipperfish:
This is simply because "absolutes" don't exist in nature.
Water turns into a solid at 0C/32F each and every time. It also becomes less dense as a solid than it was as a liquid despite the fact that every other element known to man becomes more dense as it cools.
Absolute zero (4.5 × 10-10 Kelvin) is absolute.
Gravitational force is an absolute constant G = 6.67 x 10-11 N(m2/kg2) in all circumstances.
The speed of light is an absolute.
You can see where I'm going here.
There are, indeed, absolutes in nature. Nature is rife with them.
Zipperfish Zipperfish:
Given a system as complicated as global weather, we can't expect science to provide the definitive answer ever. At some point people will have to make a judgement call based on the evidence presented to them.
All people like myself are asking scientists to prove is their
assumption that human activity is causing
100% of the miniscule amount of climate change that has occured in somewhat-accurately recorded history (about 150 years) with accurate readings only going back to the 1950's.
DerbyX @ Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:39 pm
$1:
I'm all for cleaning things up, but I am not at all convinced of pollution having any more than a miniscule effect on the climate engines that have been in place for billions of years.
What exactly would it take to convinve you? Do you believe that massive toxic spills have a devestating affect on the enviornment with lasting effects. Are you aware of the persistence of DDT in the food chain?
$1:
The sum total of human generated pollution was exponentially eclipsed by Krakatoa and even that massive eruption had limited effects even in the short term.
That is not quite true. In any case, periodic episodes of volcanic eruptions may indeed raise CO2 levels for a brief time but it is compensated for by the buffering action of the oceans & large bodies of water unless that water has already been saturated by constant increased CO2 levels. In other words, in the absence of human activity, these periodic massive outbursts of CO2 would eventually be compensated for as the earth adjusts back but we are preventing that from happening.
$1:
The .6C degree increase of the past 150 years may well be true, but of that how much of it is human caused? To assume that ALL of that change is human caused is to conclude, irrationally, that we can control the weather with our current technology.
How much of it is caused do you think? We have hard core data showing increased CO2 concentrations around every single modern city. We have data showing this has been increasing since they started making the graphs. It is not hard to come to the conclusion that we are raising CO2 levels (even after factoring in volcanic eruptions). Regardless of what cycle is normal for the planet we do know that prior to 150 years ago humans were not significantly causing CO2 generation. Maybe we should be on a cooling cycle instead of the current warming trend and humanity has thrown the earth off its cycle?
$1:
Even more irrational is the inherent assumption that the climate should NEVER change.
The difference is that the scientists who know this are also giving cautionary warnings.
$1:
Sure, clean up emissions and etc, but to hoist up the banner of Global Warming is another whole issue altogether that requires far, far more than anecdotal proof before the Western world de-industrializes...bearing in mind that China, India, and Brazil will laugh their heads off at us as they supplant us as industrial powers.
They certainly will. They will say that now that we are industrialized we have no right to tell them they can't do it. Regardless, it doesn't negate our responsibility to do all that we can to minimize pollution, recycle were efficient, restore the environment that we have effected, and generally develop technology that would allow industrialization to occurr with the damage that we caused.
Sorry, Derby, but these same scientists at their best can only predict weather with any accuracy three to four days in advance. What's really terrible is that the very best computer modeling programs cannot predict what the weather was ten days ago.
But we're supposed to believe them that humanity is 100% of the cause of a .6 degree change in climate across a .0000000056% sample of earth's climate history as their data sample?
In what other discipline besides climate science is a .0000000056% data sample considered enough data to formulate a 100% certainty? ![huh? [huh]](./images/smilies/icon_scratch.gif)
DerbyX @ Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:57 pm
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
Sorry, Derby, but these same scientists at their best can only predict weather with any accuracy three to four days in advance. What's really terrible is that the very best computer modeling programs cannot predict what the weather was ten days ago.
But we're supposed to believe them that humanity is 100% of the cause of a .6 degree change in climate across a .0000000056% sample of earth's climate history as their data sample?
In what other discipline besides climate science is a .0000000056% data sample considered enough data to formulate a 100% certainty?
![huh? [huh]](./images/smilies/icon_scratch.gif)
Hardly. Weather patterns are caused by a myriad of unpredictable factors. They can reasonably attribute the earths warming to know effects of CO2 concentrations. You use weather predicitons as the "hallmark" of science but lets try chemistry. We know the physical structure & properties of all elements, well the first 80 or so. We can use this knowldege to predict with almost certainty how they will react under given consitions. We use this to build complex chemicals which we also know their reactions as well. Science can and will make accurate predictions and determine the causes of certain phenomenons. We don't need a weather report for every day the last billion years to draw accurate conclusions about current warming trends. You want to stick your head in the sand then thats OK. I will believe the experts when they say that human made CO2 is a
major contributing factor in the current temperature increase.
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
Water turns into a solid at 0C/32F each and every time. It also becomes less dense as a solid than it was as a liquid despite the fact that every other element known to man becomes more dense as it cools.
Absolute zero (4.5 × 10-10 Kelvin) is absolute.
Gravitational force is an absolute constant G = 6.67 x 10-11 N(m2/kg2) in all circumstances.
The speed of light is an absolute.
You can see where I'm going here.
There are, indeed, absolutes in nature. Nature is rife with them.
Zipperfish Zipperfish:
Given a system as complicated as global weather, we can't expect science to provide the definitive answer ever. At some point people will have to make a judgement call based on the evidence presented to them.
All people like myself are asking scientists to prove is their
assumption that human activity is causing
100% of the miniscule amount of climate change that has occured in somewhat-accurately recorded history (about 150 years) with accurate readings only going back to the 1950's.
Water turns to ice at close to zero degrees C. Things like small quantities of other substances (eg dissolved salts, gases), imperfections in the vessel holding the water, motion in the water, pressure, outside atmosphereic conditions, etc., all change the freezing point. Water, I believe, has been supercooled to about -40 without turning to ice.
Absolute zero is a concept -- it doesn't exist in the universe (as far as science knows). As I understand it can't be achieved because to do so would violate Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle, which says that we can't know both the momentum and the position of a particle absolutely (there's that "absolute" term again).
The speed of light that we use is the speed of light in a vacuum. Since a total vacuum (a volume that contains no matter) dosn't exist anywhere, the speed of light is abstract. Thus light, in reality, always travels at less than the constant that we use for the speed of light.
All these absolutes we use are mere abstractions we use to more easily do the calcuations. But things like Godel's Incompleteness Theorem, chaos theory, automata systems, Hesienbergs Uncertainty principle, wave/particle duality and quantum virtual particles all demonstrate that our ability to know anything absolutely is limited, not just in practice, but also in principle.
Rene des Cartes tried to formulate a single absolute certainty from basic principles and came up with "Cognito ergo sum" (I think therefore I am). Whether this was a true has been argued ever since!
Thus your request that something in the real world be proved 100% is an unachievable burden of proof.
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
Water turns into a solid at 0C/32F each and every time.
Absolutely incorrect, but it's a common misconception.
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
There are, indeed, absolutes in nature. Nature is rife with them.
Physicians have indeed given exact values to certain quantities, but string theory is finding them to be less than exact, or constant. Certain supposedly fundemental constants have been shown to change over time.
One can only describe the speed of light as 299.7(10^8 )m/s based on observations, but it can't be explained. We've 'settled' with a numerical quantity for now, until we can explain it physically.
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
All people like myself are asking scientists to prove is their assumption that human activity is causing 100% of the miniscule amount of climate change that has occured in somewhat-accurately recorded history (about 150 years) with accurate readings only going back to the 1950's.
No scientist assumes 100% responsibilty of humans. It's obvious, from a cursory glance at climate data, that fluctuations occur constantly.
It's not likely you who scientists are trying to convince of anything either. The fact that you can so easily discredit glacier ice core studies because it doesn't sound very accurate to you is a likely reason for this.
IceOwl IceOwl:
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
The sum total of human generated pollution was exponentially eclipsed by Krakatoa and even that massive eruption had limited effects even in the short term.
The difference here, of course, is that Krakatoa last erupted in 2001, and it only happens once every few years, raining down ash that actually helps surviving vegetation grow better, while humans cause pollution every single day, and little, if any of it, helps anything to grow - in fact, it most often does the opposite of causing anything to grow.
And the fact that Krakatoa
cooled the global climate.
IceOwl IceOwl:
$1:
If all of humanity did not exist you know what would happen? The climate would definitely change at some point.
Not to a degree that it would threaten nearly all life on the planet, barring the evolution of some other animal that ended up causing the same problem.
Absurd.
DerbyX @ Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:23 pm
Jaime_Souviens Jaime_Souviens:
IceOwl IceOwl:
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
The sum total of human generated pollution was exponentially eclipsed by Krakatoa and even that massive eruption had limited effects even in the short term.
The difference here, of course, is that Krakatoa last erupted in 2001, and it only happens once every few years, raining down ash that actually helps surviving vegetation grow better, while humans cause pollution every single day, and little, if any of it, helps anything to grow - in fact, it most often does the opposite of causing anything to grow.
And the fact that Krakatoa
cooled the global climate.
Due to the particulate matter blocking sunrays from hitting the earth with full effect.
IceOwl IceOwl:
Really, it comes down to the this: whether global warming is real or not doesn't matter. The air quality in our cities is not improving as a result of us burning things to make electricity and run motors, which is all the more reason to stop doing it.
In other words, you can't manage to follow the argument anymore, and have decided to talk about something else.
DerbyX DerbyX:
I will believe the experts when they say that human made CO2 is a major contributing factor in the current temperature increase.
BartSimpson has pushed you off your absolutist assertion that CO2 is
the cause of global warming!!!!!!!!
DerbyX @ Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:32 pm
Jaime_Souviens Jaime_Souviens:

Once again you missed the point. Doesn't it ever bother you?
DerbyX @ Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:35 pm
CO2 being the major contributing factor is saying that it is causing global warming. Others things can add up as well. Get it now?