The 2016 American Election - General Discussion Thread

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You end that decent post with a debunked
dig about him commenting on what was reality in the United States 70 years ago? We literally can't discuss history anymore? The narrative now is that Eisenhower's administration can only be discussed in condemning tones? Silly.
Maybe this whole refusal to be rational towards anything not deliberately enabling corporate malfeasance needs to be tackled. It'll be hell if he gets the nomination, nothing but commie this and pinko that, can't wait. Probably more at threat of assassination than Obama ever was.
When you start campaigning to be the POTUS you have to know that everything you've said will come back to haunt you and might be twisted to make you look bad. It's happening to Trump and Hillary so why should Bernie get a pass? He said he'd tax at 90% so when he said it doesn't matter. His comparison to the Eisenhower years is another story all together. During the Eisenhower administration the world had just finished WWII and America had wiped out all competition for their corporations and because of that simple fact there was no reason to relocate or attempt to hide their wealth because they were the only game in town.
Now it's a totally different ball game from 70 years ago. There is extreme competition from a myriad of countries with corporations who pay alot less taxes and employ alot of really cheap labour. So, if your government starts raising taxes to extreme rates what option do you have other than relocating to another country that keeps you competitive with the tax brakes and cheap labour like the ones being given to your competitors.
But TBH it's nice to see that he's suddenly not talking about 90% marginal taxes anymore and has scaled them back to 50%.
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• June 11, 2015 on Charlie Rose: "We are working right now on a comprehensive tax package which I suspect will for the top marginal rates go over 50 percent."
As for corporate malfeasance nobody has a problem with holding them accountable for their actions and making them pay a fair share but, what alot of people have a problem with is taxing them out of either the country or existence to pander to your voter base. This is one problem Bernie is going to have if he gets elected because, when he was talking the 90% tax his voter base apparently thought it meant on every bit of income the rich and corporations made.
Bernie also goes on to say he wants to tax these corporations hidden bank accounts in places like the Caymen Islands but, that's misnomer because if you read his platform it apparently also includes any monies they make outside of America.
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On average, very little tax is paid on the foreign source income of U.S. firms. Ample evidence of a significant amount of profit shifting exists, but the revenue cost estimates vary substantially. Evidence also indicates a significant increase in corporate profit shifting over the past several years. Recent estimates suggest losses that may approach, or even exceed, $100 billion per year.
I seriously doubt any major conglomerate or corporations is going to sit back and watch while Bernie starts taxing profits they've made out of the country. My guess is there'll be alot of relocating if his economic platform ever comes to fruition.
To be effective Bernie is going to have to stop trying to be the complete socialist who's going to change the world and start using a lot more common sense when dealing with the people who are paying a very high portion of the freight because, if they walk the US will become a third world country before you can say "Occupy Wall Street"
http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/12/news/ec ... index.html

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So, where will Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, Comcast, etc. go? China?
Good riddance to the Anti-American fucks.
Now that's a diversified market.
Do these companies employ enough people to buy their services if corporations and companies like Exxon, Walmart, Berkshire Hathaway, General Electric, Chevron and General Motors, relocate their corporate headquarters and facilities to much greener pastures because that might just happen if they start getting taxed into oblivion?

Khar @ Thu Jan 14, 2016 1:54 am
But PD, who IS John Galt?
Ah, Atlas Shrugged, a book with rambling monologues so long even I got bored, and I like long and rambling.
Thanks, Bart, for giving PD a rep. Wish I could join you in doing so for the same reasons.
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First, I apologize that I'll be cutting these up into sections, I know you prefer full responses. Second, I'll be posting to links of articles and videos and such, if not to really prove myself so much as point to interesting additional information or explain where I'm somewhat coming from. Third, I'm frankly surprised to find myself so willing to defend a "career politician", but I remember briefly being told about one of the arguments for utopian socialism being that we should get what we can while we're in the system now, despite if it seems to slow down the "inevitable revolution". Being as the only thing that is real right now, I hope to see it come to fruition. Of all the disappointments I feel I could take, I'd like Bernie's best.
I only really care when it's "line by line" where context tends to be removed so as to give a super short response which doesn't answer much. Nothing you did here removes context, and you've written some long responses (thanks for taking the time, I appreciate it!) so I definitely don't mind. This makes it all much more organized, so that's really damned awesome of you. Thank you for the links as well!
I think that what you heard is a good way of looking at things. Personally, I find rapid change finds itself reversed or in polarized light more often than not, and isn't utopian socialism the one where a peaceful transition is wanted anyways? The Star Trek of the future and all that, with incremental baby steps. Personally, I'd look at it this way; why sacrifice current welfare that we know can be grabbed, especially when weighing against benefits that can be so far off as to not impact any of the current generations? If it makes our generations better off, the general rule is that it should help make future generations better off too. At least in my own no doubt bizarre view.
Regardless, my response!
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Very much agreed. I'm disappointed with the monotone stump speech as well. He's matured on much however, and in the forums I've seen him far more descriptive and palatable. He's not a serial debater like Clinton, and I wonder just how hard his campaign is working on that issue, if at all. If anything, perhaps we can at least trust that the guy wrote his own speeches.
Wealth inequality is his selling point, absolutely. But it always has been, and sadly sometimes many issues have fallen by the wayside and some groups feel unattended to in Bernie's utopia. He was asked the other night at the Black and Brown Forum what he would say to a white male who feels excluded by affirmative action, and he did exactly as you said, tying it to inequality, and seemingly suggesting that he'll please both sides by making affirmative action obsolete (inferred). Not much cheer for this statement oddly though, like it was the wrong answer for everyone, it wasn't noisy enough, it didn't pick a side, it didn't put anyone to the wall. I've been inferring this is fate of PP as well; bandaid-progressive policies on the chopping block in favour of truly progressive policies, and we aren't happy? Simply bizarre.
I want Bernie to go to Buffalo. Anytime he talks about black lives matter or sexual issues, I'm confident he won't say something I disagree with, even if he isn't saying it terribly often. Even if it isn't his principle focus, he seems to err on the right side of history. At least more than many I've ever seen available as options. Bernie is a compromise for me, personally. His inequality focus isn't even enough for me, but he's the hardest left thing on the stage and frankly, inequality is my shtick too.
I want to hear more from him on more issues as well, but his views towards non-economic struggle issues that I have heard however, like for racial and sex issues, have been very acceptable to me. I don't think there should be such stress on him not giving enough attention to this or that cause, to suggest he doesn't care about the causes or that they're just nodes on an argument about inequality. Inequality is his unapologetic shtick. It's what he's good at and what's he's always been good at. It's the foundation of his support. Personally, it's why I support him, though that's a privilege I have as a straight white male, to be able to be comfortable with a candidate who hasn't said much of the issues of women/minorities/gays, and I acknowledge that. I still believe of these two candidates, Sanders more sincerely cares about their plight, but that is only my perception.
Why would his specific message be the "news"? Why not his rally sizes, or the endorsements received, or the swell of youth support (and subsequently the omnipresent online support), or bills he's putting forward, all things I can reasonably assume would earn others airtime! Now, I don't actually like whining about media, especially since I don't watch television, but for a leading presidential candidate some leveled coverage is normally expected, isn't it?
I wouldn't expect much cheer from an audience when the response to "how will you help our historic and ongoing injustices" and his response really didn't help there. Inequality sounds great, but it's really hard for black people to look at it in terms of "will I still be disadvantaged in getting a job," or "will I find the racial glass ceiling still?" The problem that the audience wants solved is what keeps them out of the work force or out of jobs they are qualified for, not necessarily what happens when the already have their jobs. When a group of people find their dreams of what they want to do for a living have a lot more barriers in front of them, Bernie's response ignoring that issue and talking about inequality overall doesn't really change their views. I don't think it's odd he's having trouble reaching out. Improving inequality levels helps fix a lot, but it doesn't answer the pre-existing social issues which can cause, is causing, and could continue to cause inequality for specific minorities. Bernie really needs to confront that lacking response in his platform, in my opinion.
I also don't think it's a band-aid progressive policy for people who are seriously interested in racial justice. Sure, the argument here is that maybe we can make existing jobs more equitable or give a better social welfare net. But if the black population of the US continues to need it as persistently higher levels, what does that change? If there is still a lack of access to economic actors, what does it do? Bernie tried to have his cake and eat it too. He can talk about inequality programs working to fix these issues, sure, but he has to recognize what it is like living as a black person in the USA in the here and now. His talk of a pretty future sounds great, but it doesn't change the economic situation of tens of millions of Americans now. While I can't condemn him his stance which is pro-BLM and pro-sexual rights, I can condemn his silence and his choice to make it a mild and minor issue in his campaign. I also don't think there is much separating him from Clinton on these issues, and unlike Sanders, Clinton seems willing to talk about abortion, gay marriage and BLM front and centre, and has been.
Sure, inequality is what he's good at, but he has to be good at more. A lot more. At this point though I think you and I agree that we have a lot more privilege in this situation, and can get away with not caring as much if he doesn't focus on minority issues. He will, come voting days, need that support, though. Social justice is a cornerstone of what socialism is supposed to be working to achieve; talking only about inequality in terms that ignore that aspect of socialism is going to be a problem for him.
As for what is not news, things like rally sizes (which, until recently, were quite small), endorsements recieved (he has 2, compared to Clintons triple digits) and youth support (it mattered once in the last 30 years) I don't think actually paint Sanders in that great of a light. Indeed, when it comes to news coverage, I agree with Sanders; we should be talking about the issues. The problem here is that for Sanders, it is and continues to be largely "issue."
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I'd say it's reasonably likely that no matter what is written in the eventual tax plan, it'll be a bad news day, and he'll be put to the wall for something or other in it. That he is bidding his time so close to the actual caucus though, when most would be aware and attentive to him and his campaign, is bizarre. I'm unsure what the game is with that plan, if the plan right now is just unformed or comes off naive, or if he's hoping to minimize media coverage and reach before people start voting, or if he's actually counting on positive coverage and wants to cash in at a time of large focus. Who knows?
Is there legitimate fear that many small banks will be able to engage in the exact same kind of activities? I don't think Sanders is explicitly planning on busting the banks up into smaller chunks and then just wiping his hands of the problem, allowing them to continue doing exactly what they used to do. Among other things, he wants to nationalize credit agencies. I am admittedly an extreme amateur at talking about this stuff though, as I'm not a stock broker or a trader, and because as always something this close to Wall Street and the money hoarders will have me drowned in derivative logic that minimizes and discourages any challenge to the beast. Which I'm feeling Bernie is struggling with, and with this notion that he's to educate us on each specific facet of Wall Street corruption, I can only hope he has actual professionals and economists advising him here.
You're right, taking down the past wrongdoers is not happening. But I think a Sanders administration would be far more hostile to a bailout, far more hostile to corrupt business leaders/practices, and free of the conflict of interests that plague the other candidates and previous presidents. I have belief he'd see to it that in the event of another economic collapse, some people are named.
As I'm sure you know, part of his stump speech includes his beg for mass turnout, and he's been pitching his campaign as the campaign that'd do that for the Democrats. He's specifically stated he won't be able to do anything unless turnout is high and majorities are taken, that the candidacy isn't about him, but "us". Pinko politician stuff. That is a worry, I agree, but again, I'd rather be disappointed in Bernie than anyone else. I'd rather a hostile congress and a hostile senate under Bernie than one that agrees with and works alongside Clinton or the Republicans. I'd rather Clinton than a Republican, but only by principle. I hope Bernie gets the nomination, because I'm hoping the momentum and his focus on high turnout does get him the sweeping progressive victory he is hoping for here.
Frankly, most politicians are expected to begin releasing their tax ideas at some point. When they are ludicrous (and they normally are) they get torn apart. The difference here is that Sanders has claimed his plan as vitally important, but even details or aspects on it are sparse. Sure, he's going to increase corporate tax, reduce loopholes, inheritance tax, etc, but what are his actual plans? The details and the spending? If he is going to talk about one thing, I want to see what his actual plan looks like. Is this going to be the socialism he claims, or is this going to be big labour? Are we going to see a health care plan, or are we going to see basically an addendum to Obamacare? It's easy to say the right words, and he has been, but I want to begin seeing some details soon, and I've had some differing views from Sanders supporters on what they think his plans are.
I think there is a legitimate concern regarding small banks. Small banks are going to do the same thing as each other, because they all have the incentives to do so, just like in the current market, and at the end of the day they are exposed to the same market pressures as the big banks, which can cause collapse. My problem with Bernie here is that he has painted this as the solution, that somehow shadow banking will end and small banks won't collapse as much as big banks and that, in the case of an economic catastrophe, we can let some small banks fail. I don't think that without changing regulation and the existing atmosphere that we can expect banks to act differently, and ask I mentioned with the example from the thirties, too many banks failing is a similar problem. Bernie really does need to discuss macroprudential policy, and he really needs to link it to the issues he sees, because otherwise nothing will happen if you break down the big banks. Nor, frankly, do I think there is a way to break down banks properly. The smallest "too big to fail" bank is generally agreed to be one worth 70 billion. How many times do you have to break down the 2.4 trillion behemoth that is JP Morgan? How many banks do you need to make at the end of the day? And when they are done, what happens when big banks from other countries move in to fill the space (BMO, for example, is already active down in the States but continues to be a Canadian bank)? It's really easy to decry the banking system using the right words, but it's really hard to offer up a real solution, and so far Bernie has avoided discussing it in any more detail. It's "break down too big to fail" as his solution. It needs more.
As for nationalizing the credit rating system, I heard he wanted to go the "non-profit" route (the US government having some level of control over credit ratings being perhaps problematic)? Regardless, someone still has to pay for it to be done, so even if there isn't a profit motive for the company, the issues remain. Like you, I hope he has someone advising him, because when it comes to dealing with Wall Street, there's a lot of better plans to use or people for him to go after.
I too agree that Bernie would probably be more hostile to troublemaking actors on Wall Street. No disagreement. Hopefully he'd be more efficacious in handling it too.
As for begging for high turnout, I'm more hoping he'd drive the "hope" and "change" turnout that most candidates do. He really is different from most prior candidates on both sides, so that helps him actually seem like one such candidate. If he can get people behind him, I say go for it. However, as it stands, like I mentioned before, I feel there is a ceiling to his momentum.
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This stuff is strictly accurate but is pushed in a pretty harsh and purposefully offensive way that doesn't make terribly much sense, but perhaps it's fair in the wake of what I've said of Clinton and her fans here. I detest this "Berniebro" meme, as do many supporters (it's basically a banned ideology on /r/SandersForPresident), that Bernie is somehow the candidate for the young republican red pillers and white people who think they know what's best for minorities. Whatever flair up of that there's been has been rooted out and ridiculed as being opinions that came from those who aren't very aware of Bernie's social stances; Ron Paul remnants. They aren't welcome in the community. Bernie fans are feminists, anti-racists, and activists.
I don't like talking about who or who does not "deserve" this or that voting sect, so I have trouble really wanting to address it at all. It is what it is. Sadly, Clinton has the general approval of the black community for little more than her husbands' reputation. And she has the general approval of women because not only is it her stump speech, it's a milestone long worked for. It's her shtick.
For gay rights, again you're right. Though I'd challenge what he has done and said for gay rights when it was unpopular is more than Clinton has to offer, and it's something that he has found the opportunity to be passionate about on occasion. The charge that he's misrepresenting his past is potentially very accurate, but I wouldn't consider them lies, as much as stretching, and it doesn't come off in bad faith. We can agree that he wasn't leading the charge, he wasn't the straight white male savior leading the gay black women's revolution that we're now expecting him to be, absolutely agreed. But he was there, at least.
What's the solution? Don't got one. It's up to women and minorities to hear Bernie and decide whether he's a better candidate than Clinton. I just hope he's able to improve his standing.
Hmm, hopefully I didn't push it to harshly here, and avoided being purposefully offensive. If I was, I apologize, and hope you'd point it out to me (either here or via PM) so I can avoid it in the future.
While I've never heard of "BernieBro," I won't lie, the community of Bernie supporters does, oddly enough, feel a lot like the reddit (or atheism, sadly) community. Definitely left-leaning or libertarian-leaning, but with an awkward association with being mostly male and having mostly male figures and women finding themselves left out of the conversation. While I also don't like categorizing people, I feel like it's also partially because of what Bernie is focused on; he is running a fairly confrontational campaign on a predominantly economic platform, which is far more likely to attract men than women, and with a lack of discussion on social issues, is not likely to attract many non-white voters, women, or other minorities. If "Bernie fans are feminists, anti-racists, and activists," it hasn't been showing in who they have been attracting; again, because I feel Clinton has done a better job on engaging in those issues. Further, the example you mentioned before, regarding affirmative action, is probably an excellent locus of this kind of issue. Bernie is asked a question of economic justice for black people, and instead uses the "universal" (or white) experience to explain why, when are all equal, then black people will be equal too (ignoring the current issues facing black people economically). In a system of equal improvement, as is described, the whites are still in a better position than the black population when it comes to opportunity. It kind of stings that Bernie doesn't recognize that.
One of my friends pointed out to me that being a "feminist," or being "anti-racist" in a progressive white area is easy and is unburdened. Vermont is not exactly filled with ghettos, racial segregation, disadvantaged minorities and such. It's not a day-to-day concern, and most issues are based on respect and such. When you get to regions where it is a problem, the flavour of such issues changes dramatically. I think it's why, in the North East and in predominantly white cities, where economic equality is at the top of the docket, Bernie does so well, because the kind of anti-racism espoused by a mostly white population who don't see the problems up close likes what he says. Those who are more used to the day to day lack of social and economic and judicial and institutional equity for the black populations who are still anti-racist or feminist have a fairly different view, one less forgiving. It's easy to talk about inequality alone in communities where that divide is not as extreme, especially progressive and upper class neighbourhoods. It's probably not going to resonate in parts of Chicago, where the societal cleaves are far worse and the issues are less about respect between people and more about abject poverty.
tl;dr, different black people and different women have different issues, and I think different people have different struggles in mind when considering Bernie Sanders' position on race, even if all are generally anti-racist or feminist. Does this even make sense? It's the fun aspect of intersectionality (which in and of itself is a great mindfuck to go through life considering, haha).
Clinton no doubt gets help from her husband's legacy, you are definitely correct there, I agree, but I do think she has done good things on her own. She's worked closely with the country's first black president and has been front and centre in a lot of discussions and debates on human rights issues. Her response to the Charleston shootings, among other racial issues, have been immediate, prominent and well written. She doesn't have a half bad past on those issues either. Her easy support of her husband's stance is something she can own too.
I think Bernie does have a solution here, and it's to recognize the issues facing minority groups, and that it's more than a question or providing better government services or better wages or better infrastructure, etc, etc. There are unique struggles in America, they can't all be solved by the same blanket policy, hence why BLM used to protest his stump speeches until he finally paid attention. When he recognizes that, I think his support will grow far more quickly and find that ceiling I mentioned before begin to break away.
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I think it's very disingenuous to attribute his rise in the polls to a tweet he made towards Trump at one point or another. There's a massive grassroots campaign, it's undeniable. They mobilized over 250,000 supporters to participate in the MoveOn poll with only a day's notice. He doesn't even have a normal "fundraising" team. He has people volunteering to phone bank for him. People have literally made apps and websites to make phone banking for Bernie Sanders into a game with rewards. Where's Hillary's volunteer phone bank? Trump's? Where's Cruz's? People aren't phone banking for Bernie because of Trump, they're doing it for Bernie. Bernie is not just some reaction to Trump.
I agree he's a bit daft with the media. I don't think he's had nearly as much debate and media training as his opponent has, and it absolutely shows. He started off this whole thing without a comb and the mediahawks went apeshit.
"Middle of the road" I'd disagree with, but inoffensive or populist, I'd agree. Sadly the gay marriage debacle comes off as withholding personal ambitions for political points, as does when he once used a classic taking American jobs argument about immigration a decade ago to support unions. So I concede, you've made absolutely justified points.
Media now doesn't seem to be an issue and I'd personally like the campaign to move away from discussing it. I still think they should speak out about the DNC and Debbie, but the conspiracy theories about the media are not going to help. They suck and it's a poisoned system, but it's nothing personal, Bernie. This past week he's been all over. On reddit, the /r/politics subreddit is basically a second /r/SandersForPresident, it's solely a discussion between Bernie fans and Bernie detractors at this point.
I said nothing about a singular tweet. As a follower of the Sanders campaign, you might have noticed that since basically the second democratic debate Sanders has been going after Trump every chance he gets, pointing to polls showing he'd win one on one against Trump, fighting Trump's economic stance at every point, etc, etc. Trump responded, and with Clinton ignoring Trump, Sanders got a lot more time on the air. I didn't attribute it to a singular event, but a chain of Sanders essentially ignoring Clinton and going for the locus of democratic distaste -- Trump.
While Bernie has an impressive grassroots campaign, this section is about garnering the attention of the media, which is inherently more important. No offence to the legion of supporters working hard for Sanders, but there's a reason Trump has spent so little yet is so high in the polls, and it's because millions of people hear about him every day, see his picture on television, and hears his voice on the radio. Trump is the epitome of media control, and Sanders needed to begin playing that game.
The problem for me is that Sanders didn't change how he acted to begin having the media work with them, he declared media a corporate enemy that was out to get him (whereas the Republicans claim it's all a liberal conspiracy out to get them, there's a problematic parallel) and then didn't change how he acted until, probably, someone on his campaign team told him to begin talking about Trump. Or, you know, he could have begun talking about something new so he could get on the news, but then we'd have to separate him from his stump speech and I'm worried he'd get separation anxiety.
I agree that my use of middle of the road was incorrect, and otherwise agree with the rest of that section, especially the improving outlook for Bernie.
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He felt a lot more authentic before summer ended. I assume that can be chalked up to desperate attempts by his campaign to rehabilitate his media image and change how he holds his appearance or states certain things. I notice he smiles and has big gaffawing laughs, and I wonder if it's real. His smile has been absolutely rehabilitated, as has his attitude and patience for the media and their snootiness. It's like he's been finally broken, and now he'll sit through these parroting giggling idiots talk about tweets and blue dresses and play along. And I think he sadly comes off plastic by giving in to it.
What do you feel on Clinton? She went on Ellen and got praise rained down on her for her revolutionary zeal for gay rights and she just smiled and nodded as if it was true. If you're going to have a sour taste in your mouth over disingenuous representations of past commitments to the cause, then there really isn't a candidate to go for. But I agree, it's unfortunate to act like that, very much a politician-level thing to do. I feel it's part of the push demanding he focus on something other than inequality, desperately linking him to this and that.
The issue with his age is why I'm so transfixed on his potential running mate. I want Warren, or maybe Turner, and I'd be excited for either of them to take his position in the wake of the possible unfortunate event.
16 years ago, do you think Americans were active enough to support Sanders? He wouldn't have even survived in 2008, when socialism got taken behind the chemical sheds to get its character assassinated. Occupy Wall Street rose and fell 5 years ago, they saw absolutely no mass party rupture like the Tea Party did with the Republicans. I think Bernie has only just recently become something palatable.
I agree he has changed how he acts, but I think it's partly for the better. Being the "angry white guy" is not something I wanted to see, so I think his more recent changes have been positive. For me, it's mostly that he seems to be rewriting his personal history a bit, which bugs me, and his trend of avoiding current and foreign affairs.
Frankly, Clinton doesn't have a leg to stand on with the gay rights stuff, I think you are right here, but I think given she was in a more powerful position when she came out in support of gay rights, and actually made use of that power (such as with various issues in Africa and as a prebuttal to the growing Russia problem) during her time in office, I'm willing to give her a little more credit. With her history on women's issues and her (perhaps by association with her husband) support of the black community, she does feel to have more recent and more efficacious activist credentials. That said, she definitely has her own share of skeevy and problematic issues that offsets it as well. I also think she knows, however, that this is a strength of her's; she's willing to fight about guns, given her record, and she knows her recent advocacy sounds a little more robust to the average person, if perhaps a little lacking on the gay rights front.
I agree on your running mate commentary with regards to age, bravo. My only remark is not to be too let down if she does not become a running mate; if she ends up in charge of any number of portfolio positions, she could be even more effective and tenacious than as a vice president, or even as president. 'tis the impressive power that both Warren and Turner have, in my opinion.
I don't think he'd have an easy time of it, but my point more had to do with how he seems to be trying to be at the forefront of all these political choices, but actually wasn't. I'd have loved if he had agitated more (even if he wasn't running) for some of the stances he now says he supported in the long-term, but he didn't, and I'm quite saddened (as you mentioned, I think we both were saddened) but this seeming choice of political expediency.
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This is one of the mudslinging statements that tend to compliment the Berniebro thing. And the similarity is certainly there. I mean, Ron Paul never had a chance at New Hampshire and Iowa, or anything at all really. He polled roughly at 5% in January 2008. And his rallies weren't nearly as big. And Bernie is playing to the Democratic base, speaking to the core ideology behind the party, as opposed to Ron Paul and his fish-out-of-water "no more war" and "legalize pot" suggestions. People who like Clinton have reason to like Bernie more because of it. There was no such possible comparison with Ron Paul.
Who the currently decided superdelegates have already coronated doesn't really translate into much of a correlation to the actual vote though. When they're all accounted for, sure, they probably parallel the general vote, but half are currently biding their time. For quite some time the same was true in 2008. I will say though that it's decidedly more one-sided this time around, and it worries me, but there's time. Also, whether the Washington Democrats decide to be "anti-Washington" or not, it seems the voter base is.
Nate Silver has been surreal when discussing Bernie, flatly dismissive, even with positive numbers. Hell, those Iowa and New Hampshire polls are nonsensical. I feel like N_Fiddledog right now, but what the fuck is this "polls-plus forecast" adjusted number game? 55% chance for Hillary in New Hampshire? Yeah okay! If they're going to base the numbers purely on the superdelegates than they might as well have Clinton forecasted to sweep every state.
Ron Paul was only 2% behind Romney and was ahead of Santorum going into the Iowa caucuses, and ended up winning half of the youth vote and was only 3% behind the front runner. He moved on with as many delegates as Romney. He also came in second in the New Hampshire primary, admittedly with a larger gap. He got three more delegates in South Carolina. It's not heavily discussed, but at the end of the primaries, Ron Paul held the second highest amount of delegates. He had a chance, it just slipped away as time went on.
I also don't think that Bernie is that "core" of the democrats. He has his share of issues (as I've pointed out) that either his record of his lack of rhetoric takes him from the norm. He is definitely a more left-leaning candidate, as a self-declared socialist seeking single-payer healthcare.
Personally, I made the connection because a lot of the Paul supporters on my Facebook are now Bernie supporters, and the narratives they claim now are shockingly similar to the ones I heard all those years ago during 2012. I'm sure it's being used as a mudslinging statement, but as I pointed out in my last post, there is a fairly long line of similarities I've found it hard to shake off.
The polls-plus was introduced by Silver because this year a lot of the polling is being done electronically or via automated methods, which he doesn't trust as much. While it's still the majority aspect of the measurement, there's a series of other historic trends which have been useful in betting who is going to win a primary, or what it even means if someone wins. Essentially what he is trying to measure is how what people say to the polls differ from what actually happens. This is very similar to what happened in the UK election, where exit polls pointed to a sudden conservative majority even though many polls were claiming they were far from it. Silver has since been coming up with new ways of measuring that difference since.
That said, it hasn't actually been tested yet, so we will see. You could be right (your concerns make sense to me). Remember, it's not that Clinton will get 55%, only that she still has a 55% chance of winning by his reckoning.
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No problem dude, I'm proud of myself for actually responding, though compared to many of your previous works your post here was basically a post-it note. You've spoken a lot of what I've been seeing from Hillary supporters and such, but raised new things that I hadn't yet been aware of, specifically Bernie's relatively new stance on gay marriage. Really speaks to the power of the narrative. That isn't as much of an issue to me, personally, but I can absolutely see why you'd have trust issues when they're painting it as something different than it was. If you want a few small breaks from his stump speech, his Twitter isn't a bad read. Now, having gone and spent a couple hours typing this, I deeply fear that you will respond.
Your response was great! As before, I agreed with a fair chunk of it, and I hope that was sufficiently acknowledged in my post. Sorry if mine is a little wonky, I'm in the midst of resume writing and this is my break activity. I think you might be right about the sources of my scepticism, and I have no doubt this is what's given me pause and making me view him through perhaps a different lens than your average voter. I'm gonna spend the next little bit trawling his twitter because it looks fun.

stratos stratos:
xerxes xerxes:
Hillary was the establishment candidate/favourite in 2008 and we all know what happened next. Don't count Sanders out yet. The same reasons Democratic primary voters didn't vote for clinton in 2008 are still there.
With some more reasons popping up sense then.
The fact that Hillary Clinton is a cut throat bitch who will pander to ANY crowd is a self evident truth.
That is why Bernie Sanders (and Donald Trump) are attractive to many people they ACTUALLY mean what they say.
Public_Domain Public_Domain:
Well those companies already sent all the working class jobs overseas, so they might as well fuck off too.
Not a serious position, but the lack of patriotism and nationalist commitment from these cutthroat psychopaths is stunning. Fleece the American people and then fuck off when society is tired of crumbling, always a petulant spoiled threat. They can fuck off, I feel no sadness for the poor Galt-ian permanent victims.
You're also including this guy in that group, right?

Remember, he's the hypocrite who argued for higher taxes on the rich in Ireland and then the moment those taxes applied to HIM he left the country.

Public_Domain Public_Domain:
I don't know who that is, to be honest. Not really up-to-date with celebrities. I also couldn't give a damn about some selfish shitbag.
That's Bono from the band U2. And you're right that he's a selfish shitbag.

BartSimpson BartSimpson:
Public_Domain Public_Domain:
I don't know who that is, to be honest. Not really up-to-date with celebrities. I also couldn't give a damn about some selfish shitbag.
That's Bono from the band U2. And you're right that he's a selfish shitbag.
![Drink up [B-o]](./images/smilies/drinkup.gif)
I don't like Bono either. I actually agree with conservatives when they say "Liberals are obsessed with celebrities." Quite a few liberals do have a celebrity obsession. It's actually a big problem.
Bono is a $cientologist ... but he isn't as bad as Lennon.
http://listverse.com/2012/05/12/top-10-unpleasant-facts-about-john-lennon/
Jin-Gitaxias Jin-Gitaxias:
Damn, that list is pretty bad but this part is the worst:
$1:
This is the toughest one and the hardest to say in public, mainly because Lennon’s murderer (above) cited it as his primary motive, but that doesn’t make it any less true: Lennon was a perfect example of someone who lived by the hypocritical dictum of “do as I say, not as I do.” As his critics sometimes point out, all you have to do is go straight to his songs.
The man who sang “imagine no possessions” lived a millionaire’s life in a posh New York hotel.
The man who sang “imagine no religion” was obsessed with every spiritual and New Age fad that came his way, including Hindu meditation, the I-Ching, and astrology of all kinds.
The man who sang “all you need is love” was a bitter, violent, and angry man who abused his family and friends.
The man who praised having “nothing to kill or die for” helped finance and publicize radical groups who extolled the use of violence.
Quite literally everything his fans see personified in the icon of John Lennon are ideals the man himself either couldn’t or wouldn’t live up to.
