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Harper playing dangerous political game with Quebec wild card
Conservative-Bloc minority government won't serve Canada well

by David Orchard

While the sponsorship affair rages across the country, it is in Quebec where it burns the hottest ­ threatening far more than the Liberal party.

The opposition parties, particularly the Conservatives, appear prepared to play with this fire for their own ends.

Polls in Quebec show support for sovereignty at over 50 per cent -- its highest level since the Meech Lake Accord. The Charest government is very low in the polls and has been for months. Waiting impatiently in the wings is the PQ, with its promise of another referendum "as soon as possible in the next mandate."

Yet the Conservative party under Stephen Harper is not worried. It is ready to damn the torpedoes and join with the Bloc to trigger an election. A national news item, reporting on the lack of concern in the Conservative party about the dramatic rise in separatist momentum in Quebec, quoted a top Conservative: "We have a philosophy of federalism that is more in tune with how Quebecers see a federal state operating." What exactly does this mean and of which Quebecers is the Conservative party speaking?

Everyone can understand the Bloc's eagerness for an election. They and the separatist movement in Quebec are going to be the big winners in any early vote. But why would the Conservatives be prepared to take this risk with Canada?

The Conservative party is nowhere on the radar in Quebec and stands virtually no chance of taking any seats there; nor does the NDP. Like it or not, it is the federal Liberal party that has fought -- and is seen to have fought -- to keep Canada intact and it is the only force on the ground in Quebec capable of doing so. Harper's claim that Quebecers can or will vote for his new party as an alternative to Liberal corruption is a pipe dream. The Conservative party's weakness at the riding level, its support of joining the U.S. missile project and the war on Iraq, its opposition to the Kyoto agreement, and its positions in stark disagreement with the vast majority of Quebec voters on a number of other issues, doom the party utterly within the province in any near- term election. Harper's frantic attempt to recruit separatist candidates to run under his banner does nothing to change this reality.

As has been the case for years, the fight in Quebec is between les rouges, the Liberals, and les independantistes, the separatists.

By triggering an election at this time, well in advance of any process of sorting the wheat from the chaff via Gomery, Harper's Conservatives hope to improve their strength in Parliament. However, if they win a minority government, they will be able to govern only through the same method they used to get the election -- namely in alliance with the Bloc.

It's not hard to imagine the bargain a resurgent, reinvigorated Bloc will drive for their support of the Conservatives to weaken the federal ability to govern and set the stage for a winning referendum.

Some Canadians have taken to calling radio open line shows to say that if Quebec wants to leave, so be it.

The consequences for those of us who love this country would be not only the loss of Canada's largest province and the great geographic and strategic gateway to the continent, but the loss of the very heart of the nation, with its culture, language, dynamism, and four hundred years of shared history -- and would be a near-fatal blow to any hope of keeping the rest of the country intact.

Those in a rush "to throw the bums out" would do well to reflect on the scenario of a minority Conservative government propped up by a powerful Bloc Quebecois facing a coming Quebec referendum.

A Bloc controlling 60-odd federal Quebec seats, and a newly elected PQ with a majority of the provincial seats will be on one side. Who will be on the other side? Who will speak for Canada this time? Who will fight and win this battle for the hearts and minds of Quebecers? Pierre Trudeau did it in 1980, Jean Chretien in 1995. Both were leaders of majority governments with substantial support in Quebec. If Harper imagines that his words will motivate Quebecers to remain in Canada, he doesn't know the province very well.

These are the stakes that Harper is prepared to gamble with, in a manner remarkably similar to Brian Mulroney's famous "roll of the dice" with the country's future over a dozen years ago. Now, as then, only a strong outpouring of opposition from Canadians will stop Harper's dangerous game.

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David Orchard is the author of the bestseller, The Fight for Canada - Four Centuries of Resistance to American Expansionism, and ran for the leadership of the federal Progressive Conservative Party in 1998 and 2003. He farms at Borden, SK and can be reached at tel (306) 652-7095, E-mail: [email protected] www.davidorchard.com

   

bump

   

As in a "bump" in the night?

   

Actually, that is the reason I have been voting Liberal, in order to keep the country together. Although, I must say that I have not discounted a vote for the Conservative party either. Your article, I must say, makes a lot of sense. The only reason why a party such as the CPC would even consider associating with the Bloc would be to have an edge. Who would want to associate with those bastards for any other reason.

   

One thing that you have to consider though... is the fact that the PQ needs to win the next provincial election first of all. They need to win in order to call a referendum. I have heard statements that the Liberal Charest, which is now in office, is not worried too much about it right now. (now if that is true or not remains to be seen) .

I think that the PQ have angered several Quebecois while they were in office, that many turned around and voted Liberal in the most recent provincial election a couple years ago. That is why a Liberal is now in office. I am not so sure that the Parti Quebecois could take back the helms so easily. I sure won't vote for those manipulative arrogant A-holes.
Let's see what happens in the next Quebec provincial elections.

But I say again, that your article makes a very good point.

   

Harper do not sleep with separatist. Seriously, the CPC was trying to help quebec more then Liberals. I think they re-try the lac Meech, but fail because of New-fie and Manitoba ( i think ). If the liberals start to say that CPC try to break Canada. That is propaganda. If CPC was not so, conservative about the gay marriage and war. I would vote for them, they want to decentralize the federal, pay less taxe to federal, more in provincial ( if the province want or not ). If they do that without the gay thing and the war, quebecers would vote for them.

and How Harper can break canada ?

   

More than politics, this is a national crisis

   

National Crisis ? Damn, all federalist say, and Sharkull bring me fact, that quebec receive 3-4Billions from Federal.

So what is the prob, if quebec leave? It's not national crisis. Why Canada will break up ? You will be able to go on N-B or N-F. USA dont have prob to go in Alaska !

   

We need an election, look at how Martin is, he doesnt look like a guy who can lead without a majority (even then..) nothing will get done there trying to get an election too, why else would they change the part of the budget the conservatives liked to suit the NDP. there hoping to be seen as lesser of 2 evils again. nothings getting done or will because they dont want it too.

Other countrys governments are watching and its gonna hurt us more to wait till december. I already have to vote for provincial election so i have no problem voting in a conservative again

and its what 3 years before Quebec can have a referendum, why even bring it up

   

Did I miss a day meeting? Did the Bloc say they are for staying in Canada? No? Ok then, so what are the cards that we have to play with?

Any party that will side with the Bloc to get in power doesn't deserve it, period. If the Conservatives can convince a federalist party to side with them or can manage the majority vote on it's own then it can run the country but sacrificing the country to get power is wrong. If Harper truly believes that he should lead and wants to end corruption then let the inquiry run it's course and then let justice be done. The common hack vs the liberals is that they are corrupt but does anyone honestly believe that the PQ are without corruption? That the PQ did not have ad scams of their own and that in a game of winner take all there was a no holds barred approach?

As much as the Liberals are tarnished the Conservatives and NDP are nothing more than a laughing stock in Quebec and thus are never going to be able to defend federalism simply because they do not have the platform to speak for it.

Only the old PC party could do that, the party Orchard truly represents, but is sorely missed in the current debate because the current Conservatives will sell out anything for power. They will change their name, platform and even leader but they can't cover up the stench of a sell out.

   

Lol, The thing about PQ and adscam. Is Jean Breault Wanted a SAQ and Télé-Québec contract. So he gave HIS money ( Yeah he was rich because of liberals, but its was his cash now ) to PQ ( 30 000 or 50 000$ ) for got the ads. PQ did not give him. So its not corruption. And if the PQ knew that Jean Breaul was trying to have contract from provincial, and they dont give him after his gift. Where is the corruption ? Jean Breault got screw yeah, but PQ did not do what he want.
Tomorrow Corbeil start to talk ( Watch CPAC ) he was the ex-director of liberal party of Canada in quebec. So he know what was going on.
Please be attentive, Quebecers are not angry for nothing about the liberals ! If you dont want CPC, vote in MASS for NPD. But liberal... come on.... There are corrupt... And they divise the country. And Jack Layton is loved in Quebec, and he is quebecers.

   

But Quebec voters know that won't happen. Layton will not have the support of the majority of English Canada so the role of NDP as federalists is a non-starter. They also know that the alternative that could have the majority can only do it with the help of the party with the primary mandate of separation of Quebec. And Harper warns about 'deals with the devil'? Ha!

   

im soo going to vote for the devil
i wonder if the npd will win one seat in quebec by calling BQ devils.

----------------
parizeau at radio canada ( only in french sorry!)

interview from the 2 mai if you looking here 2 week later from this day
parizeau interview at radio-canada

   

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