poll - dion surges in alberta ?

Jack Aubry , Canwest News Service
Published: Saturday, January 12, 2008

OTTAWA -- Stephane Dion's Liberals have taken a slight lead on the federal Conservatives in public support, based mostly on a surge in Stephen Harper's home province of Alberta, a new poll reveals.

The national survey, conducted by Ipsos-Reid exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National, found the Liberals switching places with the Conservatives since the last poll two weeks ago. The Grits gained two points to 35 per cent while Tory support slipped a similar margin to 33 per cent. The NDP also dropped two points to 13 per cent while the Greens bumped up one point to nine.

Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos-Reid, said it appears that most of the Grits jump in support, and subsequent slump for the Tories, is a result of the Conservatives declining a remarkable 23 points in Alberta.

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Font:****"It's the Stelmach effect. We assume people differentiate between the federal and provincial parties even if they have the same name. I think what we see in Alberta is a branding effect because there is no great incentive to be against the Harper government in that province," said Bricker.

But the troubles Premier Ed Stelmach faces in Alberta due to his government's decision to charge higher royalties and taxes in the oil and gas sector are hurting the federal Tories polling numbers in that province. Meanwhile, the Liberals have jumped 20 points to 30 per cent in the federal poll.

The Liberals also maintained their lead over the Conservatives in Ontario and Quebec although dropping points in both provinces. In Ontario, Grit support was 41 per cent, a decline of two points, compared with the Tories with 37 per cent, an increase of four points.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois maintained their lead with 35 per cent support, gaining four points from the last survey. The Grits slipped a point to 26 per cent while the Conservatives stayed in third place with 21 per cent.

Bricker said the Liberals and the Conservatives remain in a statistical dead heat and another election would produce another minority Parliament.

"The only difference is that it's likely to be lead by the Liberals. This is very good news for Stephane Dion. Even the slimmest minority would be a major victory for him and his party," said Bricker, adding that the Grits would be "foolish" not to try and trigger an election.

Conversely, Bricker said the Conservatives should stay away from an election.

"For Stephen Harper and the Conservatives, the last thing they want right now is a federal election. Even if everything goes their way in a campaign, if they don't win a majority, it will still be seen as a defeat," added Bricker.

The survey, conducted this week Tuesday through Thursday, involved phone interviews with 1,000 adults. The results are considered accurate to 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The margin of error is 5.5 percentage points in Ontario, and 6.6 percentage points in Quebec.

Dion’s Liberals (35%) Edge Ahead of Harper’s Conservatives (33%)
Federal Conservatives Plunge 23 Points in Alberta, Liberals Surge 20 Points
January 12, 2008

Contact Darrell Bricker at 416.324.2900

Category Ipsos Reid/Global/National Post , Politics & Elections (National)
Location Canada

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For more information, contact:
Darrell Bricker at 416.324.2900

Ottawa, ON – A new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television finds that the Conservatives under Stephen Harper have fallen slightly behind the Liberals, slipping two points to 33% support nationally among decided voters.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3783

( note i serious question this poll and have some serious doubts about its accurancy in alberta #'s and cannot find margin of error for that province , but if biased liberal media says so it must be true right ?)

Albertans are unhappy with Stelmach raising royalty rates so we're gonna vote Liberal :roll:

meanwhile the Alberta Liberals actually dropped since the plan was introduced....

yup we're all gonna vote Liberal ROTFL

Voters warm up to premier
Popularity rose amid royalty review fallout
Suzanne Wilton, Calgary Herald
Published: Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Premier Ed Stelmach appears to have pulled out of his popularity nosedive, with public approval ratings climbing in the days after the release of the controversial royalty report.

In a poll done just prior to the release of the report and in the contentious days that followed, Stelmach enjoyed a 58 per cent approval rating across the province. It was highest in rural Alberta.

The poll reveals that 45 per cent would vote for Stelmach's Tory party if an election were held today, according to the Leger Marketing poll provided exclusively to the Herald.
Premier Stelmach held a media scrum after his speech to the Saint City Rotary Club at the St. Albert legion on Oct. 2.
Premier Stelmach held a media scrum after his speech to the Saint City Rotary Club at the St. Albert legion on Oct. 2.

That compares to 15 per cent who said they would cast a ballot for the Liberals, who have lost gains made when Conservative support tumbled.

"(Stelmach) was almost head-long toward political death," said political analyst David Taras, a University of Calgary professor. "He's pulled out of the nosedive and is on his way up."

Marc Tremblay, vice-president of Leger Marketing, said Stelmach's climb in popularity comes after a steady decline in voter support.

In a steady decline since last January, the premier hit bottom in June, with 39 per cent of Albertans saying they would vote for Stelmach's ruling Conservative party.

"He took a bit of a beating over the summer months," said Tremblay, noting the poll preceded Auditor General Fred Dunn's report blaming the energy department for missing out on billions in royalty revenues.

"He's finding his legs on some level. Now he's seen as a little bit more decisive."

The telephone survey of 900 Albertans was done between Sept. 17 and Sept. 27.

Since January, Stelmach and his party have been dogged by several issues, including the spring budget, the Calgary byelection that saw a Tory stronghold go to the Liberals, and a cabinet shuffle.

On top of that was the very vocal Dave Bronconnier, Calgary's incumbent mayor who continually screamed at Stelmach for dragging his heels on a municipal infrastructure deal.

Bronconnier quieted late in the summer after Stelmach came through with a $11.3-billion, 10-year deal for towns and cities.

Then came the royalty report on Sept. 18 and Stelmach's vow that he wouldn't be bullied by Big Oil.

Taras said the "peace accord" with Bronconnier has helped Stelmach.

"But it was also Ed making a decision, and a long-term decision," said Taras.

After being elected premier, Stelmach "became the great ditherer," said Taras.

"What's pulled him out of the nosedive is the fact that we're seeing him be decisive."

Whether Stelmach holds on to that support, however, will depend on how he deals with the royalty review. The landmark study recommends the government boost its take from oil and gas development by $2 billion a year. The proposal has drawn threats to halt exploration from Calgary's oilpatch.

"It's a tough decision because there are so many decisions within that decision," said Taras. "The cards will be on the table and he could lose the whole hand if he plays it poorly."

The Leger Marketing poll is considered accurate within 3.3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

[email protected]

© The Calgary Herald 2007

is it that high 10 % points in alberta , say that likely isn't very accurate. and that was my suspious as well .

rate now it would be a miracle for dion's liberals if they won 1 seat in that entire province .

Im starting to like Alberta... maybe I will move there..

All those good, sensible Easterners moving to Alberta are beginning to have an influence.

why would I rent yours.. I own 3 myself.. Im sure I could buy one..and I was actually offered a job at foot hills ... still thinking about it..
but maybe I could stay with you until I found something to buy

mtbr ... I could teach you to speak french and you could teach me how to speak tory...lol