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Analysis: EU world's next superpower?
By Gareth Harding - UPI Chief European Correspondent

BRUSSELS -- Could the European Union become a superpower to rival the global might of the United States? The question is not just being asked in Brussels and other European capitals, but is increasingly being chewed over by policy wonks inside the Beltway.


In raw statistical terms, the EU is already a fledgling superpower.


A controversial book by Washington Post writer T.R. Reid titled "The United States of Europe: The New Superpower and the End of American Supremacy," has become an unlikely best-seller, while a recent article in Foreign Policy by Brookings Institution analyst Parag Khanna likened the "stylish" EU to a "Metrosexual Superpower" strutting past the "bumbling" United States on the catwalk of global diplomacy.

The latest, and perhaps most nuanced, contribution to the debate comes from the National Intelligence Council, a Washington-based think-tank with close links to the CIA. In a report titled "Mapping the Global Future," it concludes the EU has the potential to become a major world player, but only if it undertakes radical reforms to boost economic growth and stem population losses.

In raw statistical terms, the EU is already a fledgling superpower. With 458 million citizens, its current population dwarfs that of the United States and is third only to India and China. It is also the world's largest and most powerful economic bloc, with a bigger gross domestic product than America, China or Japan.

"By most measures -- market size, single currency, highly skilled work force, stable democratic governments, unified trade bloc, and GDP -- an enlarged Europe will have the ability to increase its weight on the international scene," says the NIC report.

Clearly, Europe is in no position to rival the United States' military might, but its use of "soft power" -- the EU is the world's largest aid donor -- is attractive to such emerging world players as China and India. "Europe's strength may be in providing, through its commitment to multilateralism, a model of global and regional governance to the rising powers, particularly if they are searching for a "Western" alternative to strong reliance on the United States," says the NIC study, which describes an EU-China alliance as "unlikely" but "no longer unthinkable."

European leaders are keen to point out to their anxious American counterparts that strengthening the Union's nascent defense arm does not mean weakening the North Atlantic alliance. However, the NIC report predicts: "The EU, rather than NATO, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role which Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it."

So far, so good for believers in a strong, unified Europe acting with greater confidence on the world stage. The problem is, the EU may have already reached the high-point of its power and could be on course for a prolonged period of decline.

Fertility rates in Europe are about 1.4 children per woman, well below the 2.1 level needed to keep the population stable. If these rates continue, the working-age population will be almost 20 percent smaller than the current one by 2050, while the numbers of those over 65 years will have increased by 60 percent. The European Commission estimates the economic impact of such a decline would be to shave the already feeble current growth rate of 2-2.25 a year to 1.25 percent by 2040.

"Either European countries adapt their work forces, reform their social welfare, education, and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations (chiefly from Muslim countries), or they face a period of protracted economic stasis that could threaten the huge successes made in creating a more United Europe," warns the NIC report, which aims to predict global trends up to 2020.

Failure to reform could lead to member states "going it alone" in foreign affairs, an end to the enlargement process -- barring the entry of Turkey and the Balkan states -- and the "splintering, or at worst, disintegration of the European Union," says the CIA-sponsored study.

This may sound apocalyptic, but there are some in Brussels who share the view that "business as usual" policies will result in the death of the European dream. A report drawn up for the commission by former Dutch Prime Minister Wim Kok in November said Europe was losing ground to the United States and would fail to meet its goal of becoming the world's most competitive economy by the end of the decade without radical reforms. Calling on leaders to rise to, rather than shirk, their responsibilities, it concluded: "Nothing less than the future prosperity of the European model is at stake."

There are encouraging signs the commission understands the gravity of the situation Europe finds itself in. Newly appointed president Jose Manuel Barroso has made creating jobs and promoting growth the two priorities of his five-year stint at the helm of the EU executive and has assembled the most fervently pro-market team of commissioners ever seen in Brussels.

The problem is that economic policy is still largely decided in national capitals, and here there is less urgency to free up highly regulated labor markets, trim bloated welfare systems and invest in education and research and development.

Europeans are still fabulously wealthy and cosseted compared with most other peoples in the world, but there is an almost unanimous agreement on both sides of the Atlantic that this cannot last. The NIC report estimates that the GDP of China will overtake that of Britain this year, Germany before the end of the decade and Japan by 2015. The only compensation for Euro-enthusiasts obsessed with one-upping the United States is that Chinese wealth is set to outstrip America's by 2040.

The EU becoming a superpower beyond what it may JUST about be? Nope.

It will be China.

http://www.garnertedarmstrong.ws/Mark_Word...super1-13.shtml

   

China was the world's superpower up until the 19th Century, when Britain took over. China was the world's largest manufacturing country in the world for ONE THOUSAND years until Britain took over and became "The Workshop of the World" in the 19th Century. India was the seccond biggest. Even though China has nearly always been non-democratic, and India, too, China was the most technogically advanced nation in the world up until the 18th or 19th Century. In fact, through nearly all of the years 1000-1800, China was top dog.

Nowadays, we see Western Europe and North America as "advanced." But it's only been like that until comparitively recently. Until the 1800's, China and India were the two biggest economies, and had been for the previous 1000 years or so, and technologically, they were ahead of any Western European country. Even as late as the 1700's, Western Europe was poor and backward, whereas China was rich and industrious.

Now, the roles have reversed.

   

Canada has been sending $56.4 Million Annually to China
http://www.tibet.ca/en/wtnarchive/2004/4/6_5.html

During Mao's leap foreward, about 30 million Chinese starved needlessly and Canadians started sending aid. I can't find any details that show that this money is the continuation of that aid, but I found this:


Welcome to the Peoples’ Republic of China on Canadian soil
by Judi McLeod & Brian Thompson, Canadafreepress.com

January 22, 2005

Is China’s ownership interest in Alberta oil sands being financed with Canadian tax dollars?

Officials with Sinopec Corp.-- a company majority owned by the Chinese government has already been in Alberta for their own look-see--an actual tour of the oil sands.

A second Chinese state-owned company, Minmetals Corp. is working on a bid to acquire Toronto-based mine company Noranda Inc.--a deal worth more than $7 billion.

When the fix is in, the Canadian Liberal Government will have managed to sell off our nation’s coveted natural resources–allowing China to buy them with our own money!

This story begins and ends with The Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), which provides more development assistance to China than to any other country in the world. That information gem comes from the Canadian Embassy in Beijing.

CIDA’s disbursements for the bilateral program (the core of Canada’s development in China) amounted to $65.45 million in 2002.

Megamillion Canadian economic expenditures in China extend to projects conducted by Canadian non-profit and private sector groups, as well as by the International Development Research Centre. Canada also contributes big time to the work of multilateral agencies in China, such as the United Nations Development Program, UNICEF and the World Health Organization.

Overtaxed Canadian citizens ruled by a Liberal government that claims budget surplus, and still no tax breaks in sight, are paying plenty to Communist China.

Examples of current Canadian-sponsored development projects in the Orient include:


The Canada China Cooperation Project in Cleaner Production ($10.5 million from 1996 to 2003);


Sustainable Agriculture Development in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region ($3.5 million, from 2000 to 2005);


The Public Policy Options Program Phases 1 & 11($10.5 million from 1996 to 2004);


The China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development Phase 11 & 111 ($14.9 million from 1997 to 2007).

A $10 million joint project between CIDA and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has recently successfully completed stage one testing in China. The project was led in part by the Alberta Research Council.

And that’s just a snapshot of the kind of Canadian tax dollars being poured into China.

CIDA began building relationships with the Chinese government in 1981, with a general cooperation agreement being signed in 1983.

In partnership with federal government departments and Canadian organizations, many of CIDA’s development cooperation projects focus on human rights, good governance and democratic development. They include initiatives on the training of judges, criminal law reform, women’s rights, legal aid and the development of civil society with gender equity as an important underlying theme.

No one should be surprised to see signs of Prime Minister Paul Martin’s determined commitment to China.

It was during a major public speech, at a dinner hosted by the Canada-China Business Council, when Prime Minister Paul Martin stated that Canada stands to "benefit from" China’s increased need for the world’s natural resources.

Andre Desmarais, the son of Martin’s former Power Corp. boss Paul Desmarais, happens to be the chairman of the Canada-China Business Council. Andre Desmarais is married to France, the daughter of Martin’s immediate predecessor, former Prime Minister Jean Chretien.

Then, of course Martin longtime mentor, Maurice Strong an unabashed advocate for China as the next world power, founded CIDA in 1967, where he was launched as an international powerhouse.

Indeed, Martin’s first very first opportunity to express his vision about Canada and China as Prime Minister came on December 6, 2004, when he was keynote speaker at the Canada-China Business Council annual dinner.

"No longer can China be considered simply an emerging market; it has established itself as a world power," Martin said.

Referring to New York Times columnist Bill Friedman, Martin said that in writing about China’s rise to power, Friedman said that when Bill Gates goes to China, people line up for hours and hang from the rafters to hear him speak.

"In China Bill Gates is Britney Spears and in North America, Britney Spears is Britney Spears."

For concerned Canadians under the evolving prime ministership of the Desmarais-Strong-influenced Paul Martin: Welcome to the Peoples’ Republic of China.

   

Should I feel disappointment in that post...? Should I feel angry at maintaining cross Atlantic (oops. I meant Pacific) trade options with China....? Canada needs to keep options open in order to curb dependancy on one trade partner. Could it be a piece in the sovereignty puzzle? Is it negative or positive?...not convinced......

Vancouver's aliases.... HongCouver, VanKong.

GreatBriton quoted

   

China has a GDP of $7.4 Trillion and a huge trade deficit with all the countries that it trades with, and you want to send them more money?
You must be a Liberal.

Trade is one thing but this is not trade.

But 1997 was a pivotal year for Sino-Canadian relations in other ways. It was that year that a group of investigators with the RCMP and CSIS wrapped up a probe into the systematic infiltration of Canadian society by Chinese gangs. It was dubbed Operation Sidewinder. But almost immediately after the security report that followed, titled "Chinese Intelligence Services and Triads Financial Links in Canada," was completed, CSIS ordered it destroyed. At the time, the head of CSIS was Ward Elcock. Elcock, in fact, is the nephew of Michael Pitfield, a confidant of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau. Pitfield co-authored the report in the early eighties that led to the creation of CSIS. Today, he is a director of Power Corp.

More:
http://www.westernstandard.ca/website/i ... cle_id=803

   

Am I getting the maths wrong? 7 Billion minus 65.45 million (2002)..... What if we factor in 2003, 2004, and the years before, then I guess there can be an arguement, but I figure we must also take into account other forms of Chinese investment in Canada and add it to a progressively complicated equation.

I'm no expert, nor amature, so I can't go onto an offensive. I just work on the principal that Canada needs to keep open trade partners even if it is on a "I itch your back before you can itch my back." theory. I also look at it as democracy working softly. China is the next big boy on the block, if they haven't already reached it since were on a "need to know" basis. Their need for raw resources will be mind blowing if it already isn't. I just hope our politicians don't leave Canada's enviornment raped for our children to live on contaminated lands, leaving them money to eat. Pessimistic but history isn't proving otherwise.

   

The reason why Canada provides China economic 'relief'

China does't need it, we need it as a foot in the door. It is nothing more than a thinly veiled bribe to provide economic stimulus.

   

Does "the bribe" achieve a favorable end result?

My brother in law while running his own buisness here in Europe was constantly under pressure to keep his head above water and his company afloat. Common practice here is to provide gifts to clients just to keep his foot in the door in a strictly controlled area where the big cut down competition to stay on top, it's logical. He was consistently pressured into debt by common big buisness practices, mostly gov't contracts which took over 3 months, if he was lucky, to finally get paid for services provided. This compiled with bank loans and interest rates eventually sunk him. It's a complicated game when your on the bottom rung working your way up. Now he, highly motivated, is back on top.

Canada isn't on the bottom rung, but I figure, running an economy that is largely resource based, you have to provide incentives, create interest and form alliances with the big boys.



ridenrain. Don't get me wrong, I'm more of an opinionist than anything, but if you need to catagorize me, would take no offence being called a CAP supporter, a party who has not a snowballs chance in hell..... Maybe even Green...? If you want to offend insinuate my support for Harper "The Mole".

   

The line " you must be a liberal" was a joke and not to be taken personally.

Earlier in this thread, there was the question of Canada giving aid to China so I provided details. This bit of information is not often reported and I'd bet that most Canadians would find it ludicrous.

I don't see trade with China as sustainable. The trade imbalance is huge and only promotes the sale of raw material, not products made by Canadian manufacturers. Selling off Canadian mining and petroleum companies to China is stupid, short term thinking and only benefits the ex-owners & shareholders. China's economy is controlled and the value of their money is set low to undercut Western dollars, which is still in violation of the WTO.

   

No offence taken. My current impression of the Liberals is "just another bunch of lieing, thieving politicians", nothing new in Canadian politics. Saying that, my gut impression of Martin during his election campaign a few years back was negative. Seemed to me to be another opportunist entrepeneur..(Candian steamship lines came to mind back then... and now.) I have the same gut feeling for Harper except stronger. (actually, it turns my stomach).

...as for your post... Is it possible to sustain manufacturing in Canada under the surge of Globalization? It's a common theme in recently developed nations that labour based industry is moved to the third world....just plain cheaper. (EU for example) Got to be pretty imaginative to come up with an alternative to this "global" movement.

China controlling it's currency...good move? What would happen if they sucked it all in and after ages of international pressure (continually sucking in buisness & stalling), finally complying and put their currency on the market. Would it explode? Would their buying power suddenly sky rocket for .....10 years?...20?....5?

I's a waffling.

   

China's new consumers get a taste for luxury goods

A sales boom is attracting foreign manufacturers to a market expected to grow to $3.7 trillion in 10 years

Jonathan Watts in the Salon de Chocolat in Beijing
Saturday June 18, 2005
The Guardian

Yang Jing, a pastry chef with a sweet tooth, grins as he pops into his mouth one of his most sumptuous creations: a ball of luxury French chocolate, mixed with cream, vodka and ginger and decorated with flakes of real gold.

The 32-year-old could hardly have imagined such luxury while he was growing up in a Beijing of ration coupons and food kiosks. Yang had to wait until he was eight - just after China opened up its economy - to get his first taste of chocolate.





Now his corpulent figure is hard to equate with the scrawny boy he once was, a transformation that embodies the remarkable consumption habits of the world's most populous nation.

From luxury confectionery and designer clothes to imported beers and expensive cars, Chinese shoppers are buying as they have never bought before.

Sales at restaurants and retail outlets are growing even faster than the spectacular 9% annual expansion of the economy. In the past six years, 400 giant shopping centres, many more than double the size of anything in Britain, have opened throughout the country.

China has overtaken the US in sales of televisions and mobile phones. In the next few years, it will become the biggest market for computers. And a double digit rise in urban incomes has drawn Cartier, Prada and Armani to expand here faster than anywhere else in the world.

The rise in consumption has alarmed dieticians, who say that obesity rates have doubled in 10 years, and environmentalists, who say the planet will be doomed if China's 1.3bn population starts to eat and shop like Americans or Europeans.

But foreign retailers are queueing up to influence the tastes of a still embryonic market. The latest group of proselytisers was a party of luxury chocolate makers from France, Switzerland and Russia, who participated alongside Yang at China's first international chocolate fair.

In the resplendent setting of Beijing's Hyatt hotel, they sought to grab the attention of consumers with a chocolate fashion show, featuring models draped in confectionery, and a row of stalls offering free samples of delicacies that normally sell for £30 to £60 a kilo.

"China is the future of civilisation," said Sylvie Douce, producer of the Salon de Chocolat, which has held annual events in France, the US and Japan since it started 11 years ago.

"In Japan, when we first arrived, they didn't eat much chocolate, but now everyone does. It will be the same here. I want to be here right at the start."

The task of persuading China that it should be sweeter as well as richer has just started. The average consumer eats a kilo (2.2lbs) of confectionery a year - a tenth of the average for developed countries. China's $4.3bn sweet market is dominated by cheap products made by domestic manufacturers such as White Rabbit Creamy Candy Factory and foreign giants such as Mars.

But with sales of chocolate forecast to triple between 1998 and 2008, foreign firms are keen to be the first to control lucrative niches.

Two months ago, Jeff de Bruges, a French luxury chocolate retailer that has 250 outlets worldwide, made its first venture into Asia by opening a shop in Shanghai with a local partner. The manager, Philippe Jamba, said it was a test venture in a market that is still more about potential than current sales.

"We have to tell people what chocolate is about. It is a huge education process."

There is no shortage of willing foreign teachers. Last November, almost 70% of the exhibitors at China's first sweet fair were from foreign companies.

Executives from the world's best known clothing and accessory companies are acutely aware of the potential. "China is certainly the most prominent and most important market we have in front of us," Paolo Fontanelli, chief financial officer for Giorgio Armani, told delegates at a luxury brand conference in Shanghai.

By 2008, his company will more than double its number of outlets in China to 30. Prada expects to have 20 by the end of this year. Cartier has opened seven in the past six months.

Poverty gap


With hundreds of millions of peasants still below the poverty line, China is an unbalanced market. But analysts believe the only way is up. Merrill Lynch estimates that only 30 million people - 2% of the population - can afford luxury goods, but by 2009, China will account for 20% of the world market in such high-end products.

Credit Suisse First Boston forecasts that spending by Chinese consumers will quintuple in the next 10 years to $3.7 trillion (£2.03 trillion) - an increase of 18% a year - compared with 1-3% in mature markets like Japan, the US and Europe.

By 2015, the bank predicts, "Chinese consumers will likely have displaced US consumers as the primary engine of global economic growth."

The government seems keen to encourage the trend, which will help to offset China's huge and politically sensitive trade surplus. After the announcement of a 13% rise in retail sales and a 20% rise in restaurant revenues last month, the central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, said he was happy that Chinese people are spending more because their savings rate - currently 38% of incomes - was "pretty high". It is actually among the highest in the world, far above the US, which has near zero rates of saving.

At the Salon de Chocolat, there were plenty of volunteers willing to splash out.

Liu Ying, 26, a trading company employee, said her income had risen more than 50% in the past few years to 15,000 renminbi (about £1,000) a month. She has used the extra cash to buy a £170 Gucci watch, a £200 Coach bag from Hong Kong, and a £120 necklace from Folli Follie.

Her consumption of international brands is a long way from the values that her parents' generation grew up with during the cultural revolution. But she said they had accepted the change as easily as she had.

"My parents' lives were quite tough, but they are very open-minded," said Liu as she nibbled on a wafer-thin chocolate slice. "As long as I can afford to pay, they don't mind what I buy."



guardian.co.uk

   

Rand: China closing military gap with U.S.
By Martin Sieff
UPI Senior News Analyst
Jun. 16, 2005 at 9:32PM


China's military capability is catching up with that of the United States according to a Rand Corp. study.
A Rand report quoted by the Russian newspaper Pravda Thursday said the gap was expected to further narrow in the next few years.
Pravda said excerpts from the report drawn up for U.S. intelligence chiefs detailed China's military breakthroughs and development over the past few years.
The newspaper said the report had probably been leaked to the public to increase support for higher budget allocations for the Pentagon and U.S. intelligence agencies.
Pravda also said publication of parts of the report had sent a warning to China to take more vigorous action to raise the value of its national currency, the yuan. It said the published reports may also have been meant to derail the European Union's plans to lift its arms embargo on China.


www.washtimes.com . . .

   

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